Thursday, May 25, 2017


We are experience a meltup.

"The Nasdaq composite also notched a new record, climbing over 6,170.16, as Netflix, Alphabet, and Facebook shares all rose. Amazon also rose, nearing the $1,000 per share mark."

Bitcoin has been rising about 10% per day and is at $2700, up from $900 just 2 months ago.

What this means is that the increasing prices of these objects has nothing to do with the fundamentals like price-earnings ratio, but they are becoming alternate currencies, to replace the US dollar.  The vast pool of dollars that have been created has destroyed the value of the dollar, but this breakdown has largely been suppressed.

That's my theory anyway.  The only flaw in it is that gold is not also experiencing a meltup.  But that may be because the price of gold is being heavily manipulated.

So as crazy as this seems, it may not be a bubble, but is instead a response to the Fed's actions.  What the Fed needs to do is to starting doing quantitative tightening to add value to the dollar.  This may then cause a crash and a recession, which will hurt people who don't benefit from the meltup.

The best response may be to just ease into QT, to try to keep the prices from crashing, and to keep a recession from occurring (which is futile because you can't stop recessions from happening, and we are overdue for one).

The Fed thinks they are clever, but the markets are cleverer.

No comments:

Post a Comment