Tuesday, May 30, 2017

The Trump Budget

Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/budget.pdf

This shows a surplus in 2027.  I don't believe it will pass but one can always dream.  In addition to the political problems with passing the budget, it doesn't have any room for a recession.

My forecast is still for the system to have a full-blown crisis in 2029 because of defaulting on Social Security payments.  Even the rosy Trump budget above shows a $350 billion hole in Social Security in 2027, increasing at the rate of $50 billion+ per year.

I think that there will be another 2008-style recession starting in 2018, and from 2019 on out we will have trillion dollar deficits and rapidly increasing.  I hope I am wrong.

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