Thursday, June 22, 2017

Peak for the Dow

The DJIA hit 21528.99 on June 19.  I waited a couple of days to see if it would hit a new high.  At some point, it will hit a peak for this business cycle, and that might be it.

What I think will happen at some point soon is that the Dow will decline by 500 or more points over a few days, enough so that we are sure the Dow won't go even higher.  Then the real estate bubble will burst - probably this fall.  Then the unemployment rate will start rising, say about January.  It is very low now, so I think it has a ways to go to trigger a recession, but the recession should start early next year.  Then a full blown crisis will hit in September 2018, with a huge stock market crash.

Of course, I could be wrong - I am wrong more than I am right - and this boom could keep going forever.  I don't think so though.

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