Here is what the numbers look like, as a percentage of GDP: (source: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/53245-supplementaldata.xlsx, Appendix B-3).
| Calendar Year | Tax Revenuesa | Outlays with Scheduled Benefits | Outlays with Payable Benefits |
| 2017 | 4.67 | 4.98 | 4.98 |
| 2018 | 4.67 | 5.06 | 5.06 |
| 2019 | 4.67 | 5.18 | 5.18 |
| 2020 | 4.65 | 5.31 | 5.31 |
| 2021 | 4.65 | 5.45 | 5.45 |
| 2022 | 4.64 | 5.54 | 5.54 |
| 2023 | 4.62 | 5.66 | 5.66 |
| 2024 | 4.61 | 5.75 | 5.75 |
| 2025 | 4.60 | 5.85 | 5.85 |
| 2026 | 4.58 | 5.97 | 5.97 |
| 2027 | 4.57 | 6.07 | 6.07 |
| 2028 | 4.57 | 6.13 | 6.13 |
| 2029 | 4.57 | 6.19 | 6.19 |
| 2030 | 4.57 | 6.23 | 6.23 |
| 2031 | 4.53 | 6.27 | 4.53 |
| 2032 | 4.51 | 6.30 | 4.51 |
The reason why this will cause a crisis in the Year 2031 is because there is no solution. You can't cut benefits. Fuggedaboutit. It is not an option. Ronald Reagan promised that Social Security benefits would be paid.
You can't increase taxes, and we are specifically talking about Social Security taxes. Not enough to make a difference. And taxes are meaningless in the era of trillion-dollar deficits.
And you can't borrow. Well you can, but it would add $500 billion+ per year to the National Debt, on top of what it already is projected to be in the year 2031.
So there you have it. I like to make doomsday projections, that is why I started this blog, and The End of the World as We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) will be in 2031. And just for fun I will pick a date, Friday, Sept 19, 2031 (Rosh Hashana II on the Jewish Calendar - financial crises seem to coincide with Rosh Hashana). Don't make any financial projections after that date. The land will still be here, the people will still be here, but we will have a dictatorship with price controls to try to keep a lid on the hyperinflated dollar. Or something like that.
The best we can do is to try to push this date out with incremental changes and kick the can down the road.
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