Friday, April 14, 2017

Ten or Eleven Year Financial Crisis Cycle

Jim Rickards sees a ten year financial crisis cycle:
“In my book The Road to Ruin I look at the two recent crisis situations in 1998 and 2008. Both times we came within hours or days from a complete collapse of the financial system. That’s not an exaggeration. In 1998, we had the Long Term Capital Management crisis where I negotiated that bailout. In 2008 Bear Stearns failed, Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008, Fannie and Freddie… the entire rest of the dominoes would’ve fallen as well. That didn’t happen because the Federal Reserve intervened to the tune of tens of trillions of dollars.”

What were were the exact dates?  The first crisis occurred on September 23, 1998.  The second one occurred on September 15, 2008.  

There was a previous event when the system was within hours of an absolute collapse on October 20, 1987.  This was 11 years instead of 10, but that kind of shows a pattern. What about 10 or 11 years before that?  Well, there was a financial crisis in New York City.  On July 13, 1977, there was a blackout, which lead to widespread looting, vandalism, and arson.  
Before that? "The so-called credit crunch of 1966 has long been recognized as the first significant postwar financial crisis, and one that required the first important intervention by the Federal Reserve Bank .  ... To some extent, 1966 proved to be the first verification of the "financial instability hypothesis" that Minsky had been developing since the late 1950s."  (Source:  The date?  September 22, 1966.

So if you believe in cycles, we can anticipate another financial crisis in September 2018.  Let's call it September 11, 2018.  And maybe the ten year cycles and the 17 year cycle will coincide.  

Disclaimer:  It's fun to make predictions of gloom and doom, but I am never right, thank God.

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