Saturday, April 15, 2017

Social Breakdown Point

I started this blog 7 years ago with the premise that at some point in the near future, the US would face a financial collapse. At the time, I calculated that it would be in 2022.  Obviously in hindsight it was way too pessimistic.  In the last "official" calculation I did in 2013, I estimated it as 2039.  Now it appears that even this is too pessimistic and we are in better shape.  Plus, I haven't taken into account the government's ability to engage in austerity, such as cutting the military, social benefits, and even interest rates.

The most likely scenario is that the total financial collapse I foresaw before will never occur, or at least not in my lifetime.  Yea, we will have more financial crises a la 2008, but we know how to solve them - by flooding the system with trillions in newly printed cash.  And if inflation gets out of control, just jack up the interest rates like was done in the early 80s.  And the total amount of national debt doesn't matter because the Fed can just buy it up.

However, it just hit me that a much more likely scenario is what I call "social breakdown".  This is where the underclass, which feels entitled to a certain amount of welfare and "social" benefits, is deprived of such benefits, and takes its revenge by rioting and looting.  We have seen this several times in the near past, in Los Angeles in the 1992 Rodney King riots, in New Orleans in 2006 after Hurricane Katrina, and in Ferguson, MO in 2014. And in New York City in the 1977 blackout.

Yes, logically, we can get out of a government deficit by cutting benefits, pensions, Medicaid, etc.  But can we really, without the underclass rioting on a massive scale?  And not just the underclass, the far-left groups such as Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, and Antifa.  I think we have a massive problem on our hands.  And since I am big on predictions, (which I do just for fun since they never turn out to actually occur), I think I should try to analyze when a national social breakdown will likely occur.  Stay tuned.


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