Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Stock market high on Sept 11 2024?

 Ok, hopefully nothing will happen on that day.  But it could be the day that the stock market hits a high before the next recession starts.

 If you start on 7/12/1990, which is the date of the DJIA high for the year (when it hit 2969), and add 6240 days, you get 8/12/2007, which wasn't the date of the high in 2007 but it was close (since the actual high was 10/9/07 when it hit 14,164).  Now add another 6240 days and you get 9/11/2024.  

Ok it is probably nothing, but the stock market will reach a high sometime this summer or fall, and this could be the date.  Then the Fed will start to cut rates, I just predicted 10/15/24 (6237 days after it first cut rates in 2007), or more likely 9/18/2024, since there is no Fed meeting in October.  Then the recession will officially start about 1/1/25 (6240 days after the recession started in December 2007).

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Oh, one more thing.  I was completely ignoring that this is an election year.  November 5, 2024 is the date of the general election.  The FOMC will meet on November 6-7 - any guesses as to if they cut rates at that time?  This is just a conspiracy theory, but hypothetically let's say that Trump wins on November 5, just in time for the start of the Great Recession, Part II.


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