Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Jerome Powell says a $144 trillion national debt in 2053 is unsustainable

 Another lingering problem from the pandemic is a sharp increase in the national debt. Thirty years from now, by one measure, it's projected to be $144 trillion, or $1 million per U.S. household. While Powell said the Fed tries not to comment on fiscal policy, which is determined by Congress and the White House, he did comment on the debt. "The U.S. federal government's on an unsustainable fiscal path," he said. "And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy. So, it is unsustainable."  It worries him in the long run. "You know, we're, effectively we're borrowing from future generations," he said. "It's time for us to get back to putting a priority on fiscal sustainability. And sooner's better than later." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jerome-powell-interest-rates-inflation-timing-60-minutes/

See also:  https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/cbo_outlook_shows_share_of_debt_is_projected_to_grow_to_1_million_per_american_household.pdf

Note: The report it is referencing is the CBO June 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook.  This report doesn't actually mention $144 trillion, but it is calculated from the projected GDP in 2053 of $79.5 trillion times the Debt Held by the Public to GDP ratio of 181%.

As an interesting hypothetical, I recently did another calculation showing the GDP could be as much as $135 trillion in 2053.  If the debt to GDP ratio is the same this would be a debt to the public of $244 trillion.  Is this possible since the current debt to the public is $27 trillion?  Believe it or not, the answer is yes,  if the debt doubles about every 9 years, which is what is has been doing.  What would the interest on that be if the rate is 5%?  It would be $12 trillion in interest per year.  

Is this sustainable?  The devil's advocate would say, yes because it isn't at infinity yet.  If it's not sustainable, then when did it become unsustainable?  Is it already unsustainable?  It seems like the answer is no, that it is not unsustainable at the moment, but we are rapidly approaching that point.

See also https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-fed-asks-america-to-fill-in-the-blanks-_______-150091/  "a more conservative estimate of the national debt is probably closer to $60 trillion or more by 2033"

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Update: According to the last Financial Report of the US, the Debt to the Public could reach 531% of GDP by 2098. What would this be in dollars, if you use my projection? In 2098, the GDP will be $1.518 quadrillion, so the Debt will be $8 quadrillion. At an interest rate of 5%, the annual interest would be $400 trillion per year. Ok, these numbers are ridiculous, but why are they unsustainable just because the numbers are so high?

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