Wednesday, February 3, 2021

M5 for January 31

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 1/31/21:

M2 (as of 1/18/21) = 19,560.4

Public Debt (as of 1/31/21) = 21,749.2

Feb Held (as of 1/27/21) = -4,766.1

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Total = 36,543.5

 On 12/31/20, it was at 36,140.5 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  So it is up 403.0 for the month of January and up 1,246.7 fiscal year to date.  This is an annual inflation rate of 10.6%.

Also note that the Public Debt didn't increase that much, from $21.63 trillion to $21.75 trillion. However, there was a sharp drop in Treasury cash, so Treasury is going to have to replenish their cash reserves in the next two months, which will cause the debt to soar.  I expect the debt to hit $22 trillion at least by the end of March.

The financial industrial complex created $403 billion out of thin air in only one month.  What would happen if this happens every month forever, but the rate of change actually increases? The total amount will double every 7 years.  I think the whole system can continue until we get to $1 quadrillion in about 40 years but it can't continue forever.  Anyways that is too much commentary.  I have vowed to only report the facts and not give political opinion.

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