Monday, July 1, 2013

M5 up 0.1%

M5 is what I call my measure of the broad money supply.  I used to call it M4 but there is another measurement called that.  Here are my numbers.  This is just a snapshot of data available now, on the 1st, and is not meant to be a totally accurate number.

As of 6/30/13:
M2 = 10,594.2
Public Debt = 11,896.0
Fed held = -1928.4
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Total (as of 5/31/13) = 20561.8. This is up 0.1% since May 31, so it is essentially flat.







So what does this mean? First, the risk of hyperinflation is non-existent obviously.  However, I would think that M5 should go up about 6-12%/year.  The fact that it is flat means that the economy is not growing.  Second, since M2 less Base is shrinking means that the Fed is slowly taking over the economy.  To the extent that the new money created by the Fed is not sitting in excess reserves, it is being using to pay back other debt.  Again the economy is flat.  It wouldn't take much to push it into a recession.

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