The Hindenburg Omen

With the latest market rally, the Omens are flaring up again.  There have been 5 Omens triggered out of the past 8 trading sessions (your data may vary - we're using the same sources we've always used for historical data).  That's actually the closest-grouped cluster since early November 2007.

It's extremely rare to see as many Omens occurring together as we've seen over the past 50 days.  The last time was prior to the bear market in 2007.  The time before that was prior to the bear market in 2000.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/hindenburg-omen-warns-of-stock-market-crash-2013-8

What happened in November 2007?  The stock market reached a high on October 11, 2007 before dropping more than 50% over the next year and a half.

What does the Hindenburg Omen predict? That there is a 77% chance that the stock market will drop by at least 5% in the next 40 days. I wouldn't bet against it.  A 5% drop from the high would mean the Dow would drop to 14,875 by September 30.

Martin Armstrong, who predicted the stock market high within a few days (he predicted it would be on August 7, and it was actually on August 2), thinks that this is just a minor correction and that the big event will occur on October 1, 2015.

I predict (warning, my accuracy rate is pretty close to zero), that the Dow will bottom out next spring at about 14,000 (about a 10% drop from the high), and then rise to above 19,000 before the big crash occurs in the fall of 2015.