Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Dow 19,000?


Source: http://blog.yardeni.com/2013/05/valuation-excerpt.html

According to this model, stocks should go up another 30% to be fairly valued.  The P/E would be higher than historical averages, but because interest rates are so low, the higher prices are justified.

The Fed will probably continue to pump money until July 2014, and the 19,000 level will be reached by then, probably earlier, if the correlation continues that $1 billion of pumping = 4.9 increase in the Dow.

Of course, a crash will occur a few months after the Fed turns off the spigot, but if you know its coming you would have time to prepare.

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