2013 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports

The 2013 reports were just released.  The  2013 OASDI report says that the combined says that the combined trust funds will be totally depleted in 2033.  "The open group unfunded obligation for the 75-year projection period increased from $8.6 trillion (present value as of January 1, 2012) to $9.6 trillion (present value as of January 1, 2013)."

The 2013 Medicare report says that the HI trust fund will be totally depleted in 2026.  And here is the money quote:

The present value of future expenditures less future tax income, decreased by the amount of HI trust fund assets on hand at the beginning of the projection, amounts to $4.6 trillion. This value is referred to as the 75-year “unfunded obligation” for the HI trust fund, and it is lower than last year’s value of $5.3 trillion.

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So now, I can do an update on Systemic Debt:

Systemic Debt as of 5/31/2013:

TCMDO                        56,281

Intragov. holdings            4,868

FERS (as of 9/30/2012)        6,274

Soc. Security unfunded        9,600

Medicare unfunded             4,600

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Total Systemic Debt          81,600

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This is decrease of 300 (billion) from my previous estimate, mostly due to the lower Medicare unfunded obligation.

So what is the significance of this number?  It is most of the wealth in the US, with the exception of things like equity in real estate, stocks, and gold.  In general, it should probably increase by 3% to 6%/year to allow for growth, inflation and interest.  The number on 12/31/2011 was 79,100 so it has only increased by 3.1% since then.