The DJIA hit 21528.99 on June 19. I waited a couple of days to see if it would hit a new high. At some point, it will hit a peak for this business cycle, and that might be it.
What I think will happen at some point soon is that the Dow will decline by 500 or more points over a few days, enough so that we are sure the Dow won't go even higher. Then the real estate bubble will burst - probably this fall. Then the unemployment rate will start rising, say about January. It is very low now, so I think it has a ways to go to trigger a recession, but the recession should start early next year. Then a full blown crisis will hit in September 2018, with a huge stock market crash.
Of course, I could be wrong - I am wrong more than I am right - and this boom could keep going forever. I don't think so though.
No comments:
Post a Comment