2020 Social Security Report

The 2020 Social Security Report was released on April 22, 2020.  Usually this is released in July so this is early.  There are a few "magic" words I look for in the report - see my analysis of the 2019 report for an example.

Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost is projected to exceed total income starting in 2021, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2035.  This is the same as last year.

What about the 75-year deficit?  
The open-group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $16.8 trillion in present value and is $2.9 trillion more than the measured level of $13.9 trillion a year ago.  So really Social Security had a $2.9 trillion deficit last year, although since it is not in cash, nobody cares.

What happens in 2035, when the trust fund runs out?
The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in 2034, at which time OASI income would be sufficient to pay 76 percent of OASI scheduled benefits. Last year this was at 77 percent, so not much of a drop.

So what will really happen in 2035?  The SS trustees aren't allowed to speculate but I can. Benefits won't be cut; instead, the SS shortfall of about $500 billion or so will just be added to the general deficit.  Who needs taxes when you can borrow?