Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Social Security Projects through 2095 per the 2020 SS Trustees Report

The Social Security cost projections come https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2020/lr6g8.html using the low-cost assumptions.

The GDP projections come from https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2020/lr6g4.html using the low-cost assumptions.

Note that we have to use the low-cost assumptions because neither the intermediate-cost or high-cost assumptions are sustainable past 2035. ( Read the footnote b: The combined OASI and DI Trust Funds become depleted in 2035 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2031 under the high-cost assumptions, so estimates for later years are not shown.)  Also note that the GDP projections under the low-cost assumptions are much higher than those under the other two, and this is more likely because of inflation.

Compare these numbers to the similar forecast made last year and they are very different - much higher.  For example, last years forecast shows GDP of 34,800 in 2030 and this shows 39,249.  Last year shows GDP of 52,965 in 2040 and this shows 65,841.

I am going to use the GDP numbers here for my next long-range forecast.

Year Soc Sec GDP
2020 1,111 22,716
2021 1,178 24,162
2022 1,247 25,603
2023 1,323 27,045
2024 1,404 28,565
2025 1,491 30,153
2026 1,584 31,804
2027 1,683 33,538
2028 1,788 35,356
2029 1,899 37,255
2030 2,009 39,249
2031 2,123 41,355
2032 2,241 43,569
2033 2,363 45,906
2034 2,488 48,350
2035 2,616 50,909
2036 2,748 53,597
2037 2,887 56,427
2038 3,031 59,396
2039 3,180 62,526
2040 3,335 65,841
2041 3,495 69,350
2042 3,662 73,064
2043 3,837 77,005
2044 4,020 81,186
2045 4,214 85,611
2046 4,419 90,297
2047 4,638 95,262
2048 4,872 100,505
2049 5,120 106,056
2050 5,384 111,916
2051 5,665 118,105
2052 5,965 124,627
2053 6,284 131,506
2054 6,622 138,746
2055 6,982 146,363
2056 7,364 154,383
2057 7,769 162,817
2058 8,200 171,693
2059 8,654 181,029
2060 9,135 190,854
2061 9,641 201,192
2062 10,173 212,058
2063 10,733 223,487
2064 11,322 235,516
2065 11,943 248,184
2066 12,598 261,534
2067 13,290 275,611
2068 14,021 290,463
2069 14,793 306,140
2070 15,609 322,704
2071 16,466 340,186
2072 17,365 358,682
2073 18,310 378,240
2074 19,302 398,937
2075 20,341 420,844
2076 21,425 444,033
2077 22,557 468,567
2078 23,734 494,533
2079 25,252 521,983
2080 26,770 550,991
2081 28,288 581,637
2082 29,806 614,000
2083 31,324 648,179
2084 32,842 684,244
2085 34,360 722,271
2086 35,878 762,347
2087 37,396 804,553
2088 38,913 848,978
2089 40,965 895,727
2090 43,170 944,908
2091 45,541 996,646
2092 48,088 1,051,084
2093 50,818 1,108,358
2094 53,741 1,168,613
2095 56,861 1,232,021

I don't know why these don't go out through 2100 but that is the data I have.

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