The GDP projections come from https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2020/lr6g4.html using the low-cost assumptions.
Note that we have to use the low-cost assumptions because neither the intermediate-cost or high-cost assumptions are sustainable past 2035. ( Read the footnote b: The combined OASI and DI Trust Funds become depleted in 2035 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2031 under the high-cost assumptions, so estimates for later years are not shown.) Also note that the GDP projections under the low-cost assumptions are much higher than those under the other two, and this is more likely because of inflation.
Compare these numbers to the similar forecast made last year and they are very different - much higher. For example, last years forecast shows GDP of 34,800 in 2030 and this shows 39,249. Last year shows GDP of 52,965 in 2040 and this shows 65,841.
I am going to use the GDP numbers here for my next long-range forecast.
Year | Soc Sec | GDP |
2020 | 1,111 | 22,716 |
2021 | 1,178 | 24,162 |
2022 | 1,247 | 25,603 |
2023 | 1,323 | 27,045 |
2024 | 1,404 | 28,565 |
2025 | 1,491 | 30,153 |
2026 | 1,584 | 31,804 |
2027 | 1,683 | 33,538 |
2028 | 1,788 | 35,356 |
2029 | 1,899 | 37,255 |
2030 | 2,009 | 39,249 |
2031 | 2,123 | 41,355 |
2032 | 2,241 | 43,569 |
2033 | 2,363 | 45,906 |
2034 | 2,488 | 48,350 |
2035 | 2,616 | 50,909 |
2036 | 2,748 | 53,597 |
2037 | 2,887 | 56,427 |
2038 | 3,031 | 59,396 |
2039 | 3,180 | 62,526 |
2040 | 3,335 | 65,841 |
2041 | 3,495 | 69,350 |
2042 | 3,662 | 73,064 |
2043 | 3,837 | 77,005 |
2044 | 4,020 | 81,186 |
2045 | 4,214 | 85,611 |
2046 | 4,419 | 90,297 |
2047 | 4,638 | 95,262 |
2048 | 4,872 | 100,505 |
2049 | 5,120 | 106,056 |
2050 | 5,384 | 111,916 |
2051 | 5,665 | 118,105 |
2052 | 5,965 | 124,627 |
2053 | 6,284 | 131,506 |
2054 | 6,622 | 138,746 |
2055 | 6,982 | 146,363 |
2056 | 7,364 | 154,383 |
2057 | 7,769 | 162,817 |
2058 | 8,200 | 171,693 |
2059 | 8,654 | 181,029 |
2060 | 9,135 | 190,854 |
2061 | 9,641 | 201,192 |
2062 | 10,173 | 212,058 |
2063 | 10,733 | 223,487 |
2064 | 11,322 | 235,516 |
2065 | 11,943 | 248,184 |
2066 | 12,598 | 261,534 |
2067 | 13,290 | 275,611 |
2068 | 14,021 | 290,463 |
2069 | 14,793 | 306,140 |
2070 | 15,609 | 322,704 |
2071 | 16,466 | 340,186 |
2072 | 17,365 | 358,682 |
2073 | 18,310 | 378,240 |
2074 | 19,302 | 398,937 |
2075 | 20,341 | 420,844 |
2076 | 21,425 | 444,033 |
2077 | 22,557 | 468,567 |
2078 | 23,734 | 494,533 |
2079 | 25,252 | 521,983 |
2080 | 26,770 | 550,991 |
2081 | 28,288 | 581,637 |
2082 | 29,806 | 614,000 |
2083 | 31,324 | 648,179 |
2084 | 32,842 | 684,244 |
2085 | 34,360 | 722,271 |
2086 | 35,878 | 762,347 |
2087 | 37,396 | 804,553 |
2088 | 38,913 | 848,978 |
2089 | 40,965 | 895,727 |
2090 | 43,170 | 944,908 |
2091 | 45,541 | 996,646 |
2092 | 48,088 | 1,051,084 |
2093 | 50,818 | 1,108,358 |
2094 | 53,741 | 1,168,613 |
2095 | 56,861 | 1,232,021 |
I don't know why these don't go out through 2100 but that is the data I have.
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