Monday, July 13, 2020

The June 2020 deficit was $864 billion

See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0620.pdf

The fiscal YTD deficit is $2.74 trillon.  There are only 3 months left in the fiscal year, and the total deficit for the fiscal year will likely be more than $4 trillion.

The biggest line item is for Commerce & Housing Credit at $494 billion.  I think this is mostly SBA loans.  I thought these were off-budget outlays since they theoretically will be paid back, but they must be included in this number.

The next biggest line item is for Income Security at $156 billion, which is mostly unemployment compensation.

Without these two items, the deficit would have been about $200 billion.  It seems likely that the monthly deficit will never drop below $200 billion per month on average in the future, or $2.4 billion per year, even after the current recession is over.

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