See: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025 (whitehouse.gov)
I have just glanced at it, but I think it is totally unrealistic. For example, the deficit in 2024 is given in the budget as $1.86 trillion, but I think it will be about $2.1 trillion. The budget claims that the deficit will be reduced in 2025 to 1,781; in 2026 to 1,547; and in 2027 to 1,510. After that it rises, but it is still below the 2024 number all the way through 2034 (which projects a deficit of 1,677, including interest). The main reason for this is that taxes will go up drastically.
The word "tax" is mentioned in the document 292 times (including mentions of tax credits and taxpayer). The new taxes include: a minimum tax on billionaires, a 15% minimum tax on corporations with profits of more than $1 billion, a separate 21% minimum tax on corporations (I'm not sure what the difference is), increase of Medicare tax on incomes over $400,000, increasing fuel tax on high-end business jets, a surcharge on corporate stock buybacks, a separate 25% minimum tax on those with wealth more than $100 million (this may be the same as the billionaires tax), an increase in the top rate of corporations to 28%, raising the rates on foreign earnings to 21%, increasing the top rate on individuals who make more than $400,000 to 39.6%, an increase in capital gains tax for those earning more than $1 million, non-renewal of tax cuts set to expire in 2025, a Net Investment Income Tax that would go into the Medicare Hospital trust fund, expand limitation on deductibility of excessive employee renumeration, adopt the undertaxed profits rule etc.
It projects the 2034 Debt Held By the Public to be only $45 trillion. I think it will be about $70 trillion in 2034, but what do I know. Let's see what the CBO thinks.
So the Whitehouse thinks that revenue as a percent of GDP will be 18.7% in 2025, and then rising every year to 20.3% in 2034. The CBO thinks that revenue will be 17.1% in 2025 and 17.9% in 2034. These are huge differences, for example just in 2025 the CBO thinks revenue will be about $5.0 trillion whereas the Whitehouse thinks that revenue will be almost $5.5 trillion.
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