I just made a post saying that the national debt will be $100 trillion by 2035. This uses a 10% annual growth in the total national debt. I think this is too pessimistic, and I think 8% growth is more likely and we have until 2038 until we hit $100 trillion. So here are the revised numbers. The GDP growth is close to 5.5% annually but not exactly.
There is a gap of about 2.5% annually (8% growth in debt vs 5.5% growth in GDP) and this is about $700 billion for 2024. I think the Fed will have to buy this much debt annually. Maybe they should stop QT by July 1 and that way they aren't sucking money out of the system when it is needed to buy new government debt. And then freeze their balance sheet for a couple of years until they need to start expanding it again. There is no point in just shrinking the balance sheet until something breaks, unless that is part of their nefarious plan.
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