When will the crash occur?

 I have made a lot of false predictions, so this is likely to be a dud as well.  But I think there may be a crash (stock market, bitcoin, etc) followed by a recession or depression, and this may happen within the next two months, with my best guess being mid-June.

The reason for the timing is because that is when Kevin Warsh, who is becoming chairmen of the Federal Reserve, will have his first meeting.  I think bitter old Jerome Powell is setting a booby trap, because he hates Trump, and is engineering a crash (as part of a conspiracy with the trillionaire bankers who run the world economy).

Even if the last paragraph is totally false, there are a lot of signs of an impeding depression, similar to 2008.

1. The 17-year cycle.  There was a repeat in 2022 to 2024 that almost exactly matched 2005 to 2007, except for the end point.  The crash was supposed to happen in January 2025 (matching January  22, 2008), just after Trump took office, but somehow it has been delayed for a year and a half.

2.  The War with Iran and the effect on the economy.  More specifically the Strait of Hormuz blockade.  I think everyone would agree that if this continues it will be a disaster, for both the the oil exporting countries like Saudi Arabia and the global economy.  The oil prices show this and they are likely to go much higher.  What if diesel hits $10 or even $20 per gallon?  What effect will this have on food prices?

3.  Closely related to this is the effect on airlines and tourism in general.  Las Vegas is already suffering and it is likely to be hit much more.  Spirit Airlines went bust, and there may be other airlines (JetBlue?) that follow it.

4.  There is a megadrought hitting the Colorado River and Lake Powell and Lake Mead are likely to become almost bone dry later this year.  The hydroelectricity coming from Hoover Dam will be completely shut off within 90 days, just in time for peak air conditioning weather.  Phoenix will suffer the most.

5. The housing crash and the insurance crisis.  Florida is being hurt the worst.

6. Last but not least, the AI bubble will pop.

I think it is inevitable and will happen sooner rather than later.  To pick a date, which almost certainly will be wrong, I will go with Tuesday, June 23, 2026 (matching Tuesday Jan 22, 2008).  How will I know if I am correct (which I probably won't be)? Because the Fed will hold an emergency meeting and cut rates by 0.75%.

What if I am wrong on the date?  I still think this will happen before the mid-term elections, so sometime in September or October.  So my second choice is Friday, September 11, 2026 (which is Rosh Hashanah on the Jewish calendar).