Are we now allowed to ask - who is this fool?

 

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet is now less than $7 trillion for the first time since 2020.

 See: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

The balance sheet is now at $6.967 trillion.  It has been dropping at the rate of about $50 billion per month, so if this trend continues, it will be below $6 trillion by the summer of 2026.  With a lower balance sheet, the Fed should be able to lower the interest that it pays and to lower its losses, which continue at the rate of about $6.5 billion per month.

How much of the balance sheet is for reverse repos?  It is now $214 billion. (See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD ).  This is money the Fed is borrowing, at market interest rates, from mutual funds.  This number should be at $0.  The Fed doesn't need the money (since it can create money out of thin air), and the mutual funds can invest their money in US treasury bonds, of which there are a lot.  Maybe the Fed should reduce the interest rates it pays on the reverse repos, currently at about 4.5%, to discourage mutual funds from using this, and to save a little interest expense, since the Fed is losing money.  But the Fed doesn't care about losing money - they care more about bailing out their Wall Street buddies.

Hopefully this situation will resolve itself in a few months, with the balance sheet keep dropping.  On the other hand if there is a crisis in early 2025, either through a recession starting, or a bank crisis because of BTFP expiring, or because Congress cannot agree to quickly raise the debt ceiling (which expires on Jan 2, 2025), then the Fed may do an emergency QE program and raise the Fed balance sheet above $10 trillion.  

Alex Jones is back

 The reported sale of InfoWars.com and studio to The Onion was either a hoax or blocked by the bankruptcy judge for some reason.  In any event, Alex Jones is back, crazier and madder than ever.  This may be temporary, but at the moment, Alex Jones is back in his studio.

https://www.infowars.com/

https://x.com/RealAlexJones/

Maybe I should get an X account.

Update:  Apparently Elon Musk is stepping in to save the day.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14094183/Alex-Jones-Elon-Musk-saved-Infowars-sold-Onion.html

The Department of Government Efficiency

 

Source: https://x.com/DOGE

Is this a joke?  I'm not sure.  There is no official Trump transition website.

See also https://discourse.nomineesforthepeople.com/ which is like a fantasy football league of nominees for the Trump administration.  

Congress investigates reports of UFOs

 Read: https://entertainment.slashdot.org/story/24/11/14/0543247/experts-testify-us-is-running-secret-uap-programs

https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-exposing-the-truth/

https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Written-Testimony-Shellenberger.pdf

There is, however, a growing body of evidence that the government is not being transparent about what it knows about unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP), formerly called UFOs, and that elements within the military and IC are in violation of their Constitutional duty to notify Congress of their operations.

October deficit was $257 billion

 Read: https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts1024.pdf

There were revenues of $326.8 billion but expenditures of $584.2 billion.  In October 2023, the deficit was only $67 billion.

Net interest for October was $80 billion, up from $76 billion in October 23, which is only a 5% increase, helped by slightly lower rates.

The national debt as of 10/31/24 was $35.95 trillion, up from $33.7 trillion as of 10/31/23, an increase of 6.7%.

The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $207 billion (as of 10/30/24), up from $199.8 billion (as of 9/25/24), an increase of $7.2 billion, but note that this covered 5 weeks, because the Fed does weekly reports.

Why did the government spend so much money? The biggest thing that stands out is Medicare, which jumped from spending $24 billion in October 23 to $77 billion in October 24. I don't see any explanation for it.  Also, national defense increased from $87 billion in 10/23 to $103 billion in 10/24.  And Veterans Affairs jumped from $14 billion to $30 billion - what is going on there?  Is this a free-for-all in the last days of the Biden administration?

=========

The CBO says that the October deficit was $255 billion.

The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are coordinating interest rates

 On November 7, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% from a range of 4.75% to 5.00% to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

On November 7, 2024, the Bank of England cut rates by 0.25% from 5.00% to 4.75%.

On December 18 or 19, 2024, both banks will have meetings again to determine interest rates.  What are the odds that they will both cut rates by 0.25%?

-------------------------------------------------------

2024 FOMC Meetings - December 17 - 18.   https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

"This Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be published on 19 December 2024."  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2024/december-2024

Does this signal that a recession is coming?

 

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y#

Every time since 1980 that the 10Y-2Y yield curve is negative, then become positive, a recession occurs.  Furthermore, this occurs right when the 10Y-2Y hits +0.5.  

Read also: https://confoundedinterest.net/2024/09/20/hard-landing-10y-2y-yield-curve-suggests-coming-recession/

Today, 11/7/24, the 10Y yield is at 4.3% and the 2Y yield is at 4.2%, so this is +0.1.  If the Fed cuts rates again on 12/17/24 by another 0.25% as I just predicted, then this will almost be enough to push the economy into recession.  Or maybe it is a coincidental indicator not a cause of it - "correlation does not equal causation".  If the Fed cuts rates again on January 30, 2025, then this will almost certainly signal that a recession has occurred (or cause it, depending on your point of view).

I think that the Fed is following the 17 year script and will lead us right into a recession, which I am guessing will start on February 1, 2025, just as Trump takes office as a "present" for him.

Fed cuts rates 0.25 percent following 17 year cycle

 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-21

https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/09/fed-cuts-rates-by-05-on-september-18.html

I have already pointed out the freakishness of the 17 year cycle here:  https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/02/17-year-cycle.html

On September 18, 2007, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5% from 5.25% to 4.75%.

On September 18, 2024, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5% from 5.25% to 4.75%, exactly 17 years later.

On October 31, 2007, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% from 4.75% to 4.5%.

On November 7, 2024, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% from 4.75% to 4.5%, 17 years and 7 days later.

--------------------------------------

I feel like history is repeating itself almost exactly.  If trends continue, look out for these dates:

December 1, 2007, the recession officially began, although it was not officially called until much later by the BEA.  (Will a recession begin on December 1, 2024?)

December 11, 2007, the Fed cut rates another 0.25%.  (There is a Fed meeting on December 17-18, 2024, will the Fed cut rates another 0.25% on that date?)

January 22, 2008, the Fed cut rates another 0.75%.  (There is a Fed meeting on Jan 30-31, 2025, will the Fed cut rates by another 0.75% at that time?  This seems crazy and would only happen if there is a crisis of some sort).

How America Became Unburdened By What Has Been

 Here is an excellent summary listing the 10 reasons why Trump won.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2024/11/how-america-became-unburdened-by-what-has-been/

1. “It’s The Economy, Stupid!”

2. Immigration, Both Legal & Illegal, Is Out Of Control

3. Folks Are Afraid Of World War III

4. The Media’s Smears Against Trump No Longer Work

5. Musk Restored Freedom Of Speech Online

6. Musk, RFK, & Tulsi Made It Cool To Defect From The Democrats

7. The Amish & Poles Helped Trump Pull Ahead In Pennsylvania

8. The Republicans’ GOTV Campaign Made All The Difference. (The aggressive get out the vote campaign with early voting and ballot harvesting).

9. Abortion Is No Longer An Issue In Presidential Elections

10. Walz Was One Of The Worst VP Picks Imaginable

Election Prediction - Harris will win

This is my prediction of what will happen tomorrow and in the next few weeks after that, when they finish counting and recounting.  There was massive fraud in 2020 that hasn't been addressed, and it will happen again in Pennsylvania.

Update 11/5/24: Obviously, this didn't happen.  The 3 AM votes never showed up.

I think there are still issues with voting integrity and procedures as evidenced by the fact that now, over 12 hours after all the polls have closed, several states still have less than 80% of the votes counted: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Oregon, Utah, Washington.  (All of these are blue states except for Alaska, Arizona and Utah). There were also claims of voting irregularities in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado.  I think all of these states should examine their voting procedures and study how to improve them.  

GDP is now $29.35 trillion

 Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent at an annual rate, or $333.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $29.35 trillion. https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2024-advance-estimate

One year ago it was $27.6 trillion, so it has increased 6.3% over the last year. Debt to the public is at $28.45 trillion, so the ratio is 96.9%.  One year ago the ratio was at 96.0%.

Total national debt outstanding is $35.8 trillion, so the ratio (of national debt to GDP) is 122%. 

New Largest Prime Number

 October 21, 2024 — The Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search (GIMPS) has discovered a new Mersenne prime number, 2^136,279,841-1. At 41,024,320 digits, it eclipses by more than 16 million digits the previous largest known prime number found by GIMPS nearly 6 years ago.  

Source: https://www.mersenne.org/

The previous largest prime number was 2^82,589,933-1.  So there is a ginormous gap between the previous prime and this.  I think there must be some other prime number hiding in the gap, waiting to be discovered.

Alex Berenson v Joseph R Biden Jr

 Read the complaint here, all 94 pages of it.

https://envisage.law/alex-berenson-v-president-joe-biden-et-al-amended/

Biden conspired with Andrew Slavitt and other to deny Alex Berenson his First Amendment rights.  I hope the defendants get slapped, hard.  This will probably go to the Supreme Court.

What is the Reasonable and Prudent Parenting Standard?

So there is a buzzword going around in the social welfare system - Reasonable and Prudent Parenting Standard - also known as RPPS.  It basically means that foster parents should use their common sense when making decisions for their foster children.  But what is the legal definition?

It has its origins in the "Preventing Sex Trafficking and Strengthening Families Act"  of 2014:

Sec 111  SUPPORTING NORMALCY FOR CHILDREN IN FOSTER CARE

(a) Reasonable and Prudent Parent Standard.—

(3)  Technical assistance.— The Secretary of Health and Human Services shall provide assistance to the States on best practices for devising strategies to assist foster parents in applying a reasonable and prudent parent standard in a manner that protects child safety, while also allowing children to experience normal and beneficial activities, including methods for appropriately considering the concerns of the biological parents of a child in decisions related to participation of the child in activities (with the understanding that those concerns should not necessarily determine the participation of the child in any activity).

From 42 USC § 675(10): 

(10) (A) The term “reasonable and prudent parent standard” means the standard characterized by careful and sensible parental decisions that maintain the health, safety, and best interests of a child while at the same time encouraging the emotional and developmental growth of the child, that a caregiver shall use when determining whether to allow a child in foster care under the responsibility of the State to participate in extracurricular, enrichment, cultural, and social activities. (B) For purposes of subparagraph (A), the term “caregiver” means a foster parent with whom a child in foster care has been placed or a designated official for a child care institution in which a child in foster care has been placed.

It is also referenced in 42 USC 671(10):

(B)that the standards established pursuant to subparagraph (A) shall be applied by the State to any foster family home or child care institution receiving funds under this part or part B and shall require, as a condition of each contract entered into by a child care institution to provide foster care, the presence on-site of at least 1 official who, with respect to any child placed at the child care institution, is designated to be the caregiver who is authorized to apply the reasonable and prudent parent standard to decisions involving the participation of the child in age or developmentally-appropriate activities, and who is provided with training in how to use and apply the reasonable and prudent parent standard in the same manner as prospective foster parents are provided the training pursuant to paragraph (24);

(C)that the standards established pursuant to subparagraph (A) shall include policies related to the liability of foster parents and private entities under contract by the State involving the application of the reasonable and prudent parent standard, to ensure appropriate liability for caregivers when a child participates in an approved activity and the caregiver approving the activity acts in accordance with the reasonable and prudent parent standard

This all seems kind of vague.  How is it applied?  It comes up when there is a decision to be made for the foster child.  Who makes the decision - do you need to go to court and get a judge to sign an order, or do you have to ask the caseworker, or do you have to ask the biological parent, or do you ask the child?  It depends on the type of decision.  But for most decisions, the foster parent can decide.  

But what is the actual standard?  I haven't found the legal definition of the standard (but I will keep looking), but each state welfare system provides its own definition.  Here is a typical one:

The reasonable and prudent parent standard asks caregivers to make decisions for youth just as they would for their own children. It is characterized by careful and sensible decisions that maintain the health, safety, and best interest of the child, while also encouraging growth through participation in age and developmentally appropriate activities.  (Source: https://www.nj.gov/dcf/about/divisions/dcpp/rpps_pg.html)

So it basically delegates to the foster parent the decision making authority based on the "best interest of the child", which is another vague buzzword.

This raises an interesting question - what if the foster child challenges the foster parent's decision?  How would they do so, could they contact the caseworker and complain or could they get an attorney (a guardian ad litem) and go to court and ask the judge to decide?

CBZ Management versus the City of Aurora

 Read:  https://x.com/CbzManagement/

Source: @CbzManagement 

CBZ Management, which is based in Brooklyn NY, is an an X rampage against Aurora.  The photo, taken in late 2023, shows a property manager for CBZ (Zev Baumgarten?) who was nearly beaten to death after confronting Venezuelan squatters in one of the apartments he was managing.   The city continues to deny that there is any problem.

September 2024 surplus was $63 billion

 Read: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-10/60730-MBR.pdf

The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. The estimated deficit for 2024 was $139 billion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2023.

Net interest on the public debt was $950 billion for the year, and $80 billion for September [$950 billion - $870 billion as of the end of August].

==========================

The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $199.8 billion as of 9/25/2024, (the last Wednesday in fiscal year 2024), compared to $193.3 billion as of 8/28/24.  So this increased $6.5 billion in the month.

==========================

The National Debt as of 9/30/24 is $35.465 trillion. One year earlier on 9/30/23 it was $33.167 trillion.  So it increased 6.9% in one year.

==========================

Note that the National Debt increased $2.3 trillion in one year, but the deficit for the year was only $1.8 trillion.  So there is a "leakage", for lack of a better term, of $500 billion.  So projections of the debt should include this.

The Bilt Card

This card has an interesting sales pitch.  Pay rent, get points, use the points for travel.

Sanctions don't work anymore

 Read:  https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/collapsing-empire-the-day-sanctions

Accordingly, WaPo reports that the deleterious “overuse” of sanctions “is recognized at the highest levels” of the US government, and “concern about their impact has grown” in line with their use: “Some senior administration officials have told President Biden directly that overuse of sanctions risks making the tool less valuable.” However, US officials still can’t kick their sanctions habit, “[tending] to see each individual action as justified, making it hard to stop the trend.”

As the mainstream media is now frequently forced to admit, Western sanctions on Moscow not only failed to produce universally forecast economic destruction, but revitalised domestic industry and increased wages for average citizens. In May, The Spectator begrudgingly observed, “Russians are spending more on restaurants, white goods, and even property - they’ve never had it so good.” Meanwhile, Europe, electively cut off from the country’s cheap energy supplies due to those sanctions, is deindustrialising at rapacious speed.

Will the Port strike shut down the economy next week?

 Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpqhYxd3ShI

The International Longshoreman's Association (ILA) will go on strike on October 1.  They represent 85,000 port workers in Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, Miami, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Wilmington NC, Norfolk, Baltimore, Wilmington DE, Philadelphia, Ports of NJ and NY, and Boston and others. 56% of all US cargo traffic will be affected.

If the strike lasts more than a few days, the effects will be devastating.  This may be an exaggeration, but auto dealers may be forced to close (because new cars can't be delivered), and gas stations may be forced to close (because they run out of gas), and delivery by trucks will stop.  Amazon may have to shut down.  Christmas may have to be cancelled because consumer good can't be obtained.

The ILA workers are currently paid an average of $39/hour and want a 77% raise over the next 6 years.  They also want a total ban on any port automation, including presumably automated gates, self-driving trucks, robotic cranes, etc.  The USMX has offered a 40% increase in wages.  The pay is probably not the sticking point, but the automation is.  

I think the ILA position is unreasonable, and the strike will probably go on for a few weeks until the President (or whoever is controlling him) will step in and force a settlement right before the election, which won't make his party popular.

Let's see what happens.  I think it will be crazy in about a week.

Update: The strike has been postponed until January 15, 2025, just in time for the new president to deal with.  https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/04/business/port-strike-ends-whats-next/index.html