Is a debt to GDP ratio of 132% unsustainable?

 Whenever I see someone write that a certain debt to GDP ratio is unsustainable, my curiosity is peaked.  Read this:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-bond-tantrum-wrenching-worrisome-200009547.html

Bloomberg Economics projects the US debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 132% by 2034 — what many market watchers see as an unsustainable level.

This Finance Yahoo article doesn't show the source which makes me a little skeptical.  And who are these "many market watchers"? This odd phrase makes me think the author is just making this up.  The days of accepting main street news without hyperlinks or footnotes are long over.  And I can't find the article they are referring to.  

But I did find this - https://www.crfb.org/blogs/debt-surges-extensions - which says this "Based on new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), debt could reach 132 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Fiscal Year (FY) 2034 under an alternative scenario".  It doesn't call this level "unsustainable".  But it does seem to be referring to the same number.

So let's look at it.  Is this debt the "debt held by the public" or the "national debt"?  I think it is the debt held by the public.  For reference, that number today is about $28.8 trillion.  Under the alternative scenario, they say the debt held by the public in 2034 will be $54.8 trillion, almost double what it is today.  So what will GDP be in 2034?  It doesn't say, but using math, it would be $41.5 trillion (currently it is about $29.35 trillion).  

What makes that level unsustainable?  Nobody can say, even though supposedly "many market watchers" are saying that.  I do agree that some level of debt is unsustainable, but I would put that level at about 200% of GDP instead of 132%.  The puppet masters can print money at will, and even magically set the interest rates, and the brainwashed masses just accept it without question, so why would this end any time soon?

Unless cracks start to appear in the system, and the whole thing malfunctions either by burning up or melting down. 

===========

See also: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-million-simulations-show-us-debt-is-on-an-unsustainable-path/ar-BB1kXUtQ

The United States is almost certainly on an unsustainable path with regard to the astronomic rise in its national debt, according to a million simulations run by Bloomberg. Bloomberg reported Tuesday [4/2/24] that it conducted a million simulations on the U.S. debt outlook and found 88% of them show borrowing is on an "unsustainable path."

Total Kievan Debellation

 https://bigserge.substack.com/p/total-kievan-debellation

In short, Ukraine is on the path to debellation - defeat through the total exhaustion of its capacity to resist. They are not exactly out of men and vehicles and missiles, but these lines are all pointing downward. A strategic Ukrainian defeat - once unthinkable to the western foreign policy apparatus and commentariat - is now on the table. Quite interestingly, now that Donald Trump is about to return to the White House, it is suddenly acceptable to speak of Ukrainian defeat. Robert Kagan - a stalwart champion of Ukraine if there ever was one - now says the quiet part out loud:

Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

The Bijlmer

This is an interesting video about how a planned utopian city area in Amsterdam called The Bijilmer became a dystopian nightmare. About half of the high rise apartments were demolished and the place is not as bad now.  See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bijlmermeer

The North American Technate

 

Source: https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/trumps-north-american-technate

What is a technate?  

A technate is a large area of land governed by a technocracy, a system of government where decision-makers are chosen based on their expertise in a specific area. The term was coined by Technocracy Incorporated in the 1930s.  The Technate was envisioned as a North American superpower that would use thermodynamic energy accounting instead of money. The idea was to use the region's resources and industry to provide an abundance of goods and services to citizens in a sustainable way. 

 See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technocracy_movement  
https://technocracy.fandom.com/wiki/Technate
https://www.technocracyinc.org/

This sounds like something out of science fiction.

Also read: https://www.ssa.gov/history/briefhistory3.html which mentions Technocracy.  I don't have time right now.

===================

This is hilarious! Some people are taking this seriously. Should Trump "liberate" Canada from the British monarchy and Greenland from the Danish monarchy?

The Midweek Update - In the Immediate Crosshairs of Trump: Britain, Canada and Greenland - January 8, 2025  

The episode highlights Trump's call for the liberation of countries under monarchy, like Britain, Canada, and Greenland, and examines the implications for other nations and global security.

It's 2008 all over again

 

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iTWmnkHc6k

It's actually worse than 2008 in the unsold housing market in the South (mostly in Florida and Texas).  Nationwide, there are 492,000 unsold new homes, the second highest ever.  Mortgage rates have actually risen about 0.5% since the last Fed rate cut, which hurts demand.

Universal States

 From: https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/my-recent-discussion-with-james-delingpole , Click Transcript so you don't have to watch the 1 hour 15 minute video.

Universal states are, let us remind ourselves, essentially negative institutions. In the first place, they arise after, and not before the breakdown of civilizations to which they bring political unity. They are not summers but Indian summers, masking autumn and presaging winter. […] There is, however, an element of ambiguity in them, for, while universal states are thus symptoms of social disintegration, they are at the same time attempts to check this disintegration and defy it. [After it’s establishment after the battle of Actium in 31 BC], the secret of Roman imperial government was the principle of indirect rule. The Hellenic universal state was conceived of by its Roman founders as an association of self-governing city-states with a fringe of autonomous principalities in the regions where the Hellenic culture had not yet struck political root. The burden of administration - which even at the end of the Hellenic time of troubles, was still publicly regarded as an honorable and covetable load - was to be left resting on the shoulders of these responsible self-governing local authorities; the imperial government was to confine itself to the twofold task of keeping the local communities in harmony with one another and protecting them against attacks from the outer barbarians; and for these limited imperial activities, a slender military framework and a light political superstructure were all that was required.

==============================

Update: This is a quote from Arnold Toynbee, A Study of History, abridged, Chapter 32-33.  I can't find an online reference to it.  There is a download of part I of the abridged Study of History here: https://antilogicalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/toynbee-study-of-history.pdf , but it doesn't cover Chapter 32.  Maybe there is a part II somewhere.

The above discussion with James Delingpole doesn't even mention universal states, although Toynbee is mentioned a couple of times.  The point that Sasha seems to be making is the NATO fancies itself a Universal State just like the Roman Empire did.

Is a Honda Prologue the same as a Chevy Blazer EV?

Honda sold zero electric cars in the US in 2023, but they started selling the Honda Prologue in March 2024, and after a few months of ramping up, they started selling like crazy and now the Honda Prologue is the 3rd best selling EV in the US (selling 6,823 cars in November 2024) behind only the Tesla Model Y and the Tesla Model 3.  I can't find the same number for the Chevy Blazer EV, but in 3Q 2024 it was selling 2,666 per month. You could also compare the Chevy Equinox EV which is only slightly smaller than the Blazer EV and sold 3,257 units per month in 3Q 2024.

The craziest thing is the the Honda Prologue is virtually identical to the Chevy Blazer EV (and Chevy Equinox EV).  So why is the Prologue selling better.  Is it the price?

The 2024 Honda Prologue sells for $47,400 (before tax credit) and has a range of 296 miles.  You can lease one by putting $2999 down and paying $259/mo for 36 months.

The 2024 Chevy Blazer EV sells for $47,050 (before tax credit) and has a range of 279 miles. (I don't think the range difference is significant because it has an identical 85 kwh battery with the Prologue).  You can lease one by putting $6999 down and paying $269/mo for 24 months.  (Another deal says if you currently lease a non-GM vehicle you can put $3939 down and pay $299/month for 24 months).

The 2024 Chevy Equinox EV sells for $41,900 (before tax credit) and has a range of 319 miles, which again is not significant because it has an identical battery).  If you have a current non-GM lease, you can put $3029 down and pay $239/mo for 24 months.

There may be other deals than these but the Honda Prologue has better lease incentives.

Is it the features?  The Honda Prologue has Android Auto which allows you to control your phone from the screen in the car.  From what I have read, the Blazer EV doesn't have Android Auto (it has something similar), but the Equinox does, except the Equinox doesn't have Apple Carplay and the Prologue does.  This hardly seems like a distinguishing feature, but maybe it is important to iPhone users.

From my short review of the 3 cars, it sounds like the Equinox is the one I would get.  So I don't understand why the Prologue is the clear winner in the marketplace.  My short explanation is that somehow Honda has a better reputation for quality than GM (although in this case it doesn't matter since they are virtually the same car.  Also maybe Honda has better incentives for their sales force (I am just guessing, I don't know if this is true) or lease deals.

To be updated if I find out anything else.

=========================

These vehicles are all very similar with the same battery design and chassis.  There are slight differences in the infotainment system.

Honda Prologue

Chevy Blazer EV

Chevrolet Equinox EV

Cadillac Optiq (85 kwh)

Acura ZDX (102 kwh battery)

Cadillac Lyriq & Vistiq (102 kwh battery)

Also compare these, which are only available in China at the moment.

Buick Electra E4 (68 kwh) & E5 (80 kwh) 

Why Saudi Arabia is Building a $1 Trillion City in the Desert

 

This is a very enjoyable video, not because of the topic but because of the desert scenes and the music and the slow pace and the futuristic desert vibe. It is like an art project, kind of like 2001 A Space Odyssey.  Johnny Harris actually slept in the desert several nights and meet real Bedouins and ate camel meat. Johnny Harris did a great job here.

Today on the Mayan Calendar

 I have written about this before I think, but I don't have time to look it up right now.  The Mayans used a calendar which had a 52-year cycle.  This isn't exactly 52 years because they didn't use leap days, so the cycle is 18,980 days (365 * 52) long.

So what happened 18,980 days ago?  It was January 1, 1973.  I don't think anything of note happened on that day other than it being the new year.  It was just before Nixon's second inauguration, just like now is just before Trump's second inauguration. (I think I have compared Trump to Nixon before). 

I have been more focused on the 17-year cycle, which is 1/3 of Mayan cycle.  Also, the Mayan cycle is about 6 pi cycles of 3,142 days each.  You could also compare the Mayan cycles to the Kondratiev (or Kondratieff) waves.

What happens when the stock market drops 11 days in a row?

 

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

Yes, there is no doubt, the recession will begin.  How does this compare to 2007?  On Oct 8, 2007, the DJIA closed at 14,164, which was the high for 2007.  So it looks like we are 2 months delayed from 2007.  In 2007 the recession officially began on Dec 1, so here I think the recession will begin on Feb 1, 2025.  

I have predicted this date of Feb 1, 2025 before.

The best indicator of a recession, the 2yr-10yr spread rising to 0.5%, hasn't hit yet, but it probably will in January.  See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y#.

Update: I made an obvious mistake on this because the Dec 19 close was slightly higher than the Dec 18 close, and the DJIA only dropped 10 days in a row.  So the headline was incorrect, but everything else about this stays the same.

Will there be a government shutdown?

 

Source: https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-before-2025

And read this: 

In his call Wednesday for Republicans to ditch the negotiated bipartisan short-term spending bill, Trump also demanded that lawmakers increase the debt ceiling — something that hadn't been on the table at all.      https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-calls-abolishing-debt-ceiling-rcna184820

So yes, the government will shutdown and it probably won't reopen until Trump is inaugurated.

What effect will this have on spending and the debt?  None, it will probably make things worse because shutting things down and reopening them has a cost.  Also, most government spending is on autopilot (Social Security etc). Government employees will get a paid vacation of a month or more.  It will however highlight how useless much of government is.

So I say shutdown it down.  Starting a 12:01am on Saturday, December 21.

Could this be the event that starts the recession and causes the Fed to cut rates in an emergency meeting? 

Update: There won't be a shutdown.  Biden signed the bill which will keep the government funded until March 14, 2025.  The bill did not include an increase to the debt ceiling which will come back on Jan 1, 2025.  However, the Treasury has enough cash on hand to last probably until June, so this isn't a hard deadline.

Fed to cut rates following 17 year pattern in preparation for a financial disaster

 Later today, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 0.25% so they are in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.  Nobody else is commenting on how they are following a pattern from almost exactly 17 years ago.

I'm no Nostradamus but I saw the 17 year cycle coming.  In a post I wrote on Feb 26, 2024, I wrote about the 17 year cycle, predicting the rate cut on Sept 18, 2024.  The Fed has been following a script since September 2022 to present.

This can not be a coincidence.  Even the length of the plateau is almost exactly the same (447 days in 2006-2007 and 452 days in 2023-2024).  

Just don't ask what happens next, it is scary.  In case you are too young, or forgot, look up the Great Recession.  (A recession officially, in retrospect, began on December 1, 2007).  I don't think we are in a recession now, but I think one will start right about the time that Trump takes office.  I think the Federal Reserve is playing with some black magic, and they are aligning the stars and comets to insure that Trump will face the mother of all financial crises as soon as he is inaugurated.

What do I think will happen next?  Well, if you read your history, the Fed did an emergency rate cut of -75 on Tuesday, Jan 22, 2008.  I think history will repeat almost exactly, so look for an emergency rate cut of -75 on Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025.  I hope nothing happens but I fear that something really bad is about to happen in the next month.  I don't know what would make the Fed unexpectedly cut rates, but whatever would make them do that is coming.  I don't want to speculate what that would be here, maybe in a later post.

Also look for the Bank of England to cut rates in an identical amount (0.25%) tomorrow, Dec 19.  The ECB already cut the rates by 0.25% on Dec 12.  Of course it's all coordinated.

==========

Update: The Bank of England did not cut rates on Dec 19, so I was wrong here.

Tell me about Jonathan Turley

 

Source: https://chatgpt.com/

Read: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ghosted-chatgpt-how-jonathan-turley-was-first-defamed-then-deleted-ai

I don't even know who Jonathan Turley is.  ChatGPT could easily come up with a bland response with the first sentence from his Wikipedia page.  Why is he so dangerous?  ChatGPT previously defamed him by saying that he was accused of sexual harassment (which he wasn't), and instead of apologizing to him, he was deleted from ChatGPT's brain.  ChatGPT is dangerous.

Scott Adams has a theory about drones

 https://x.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1868339762563842156

He believes that the UFO sightings over New Jersey are actually drones being trained in preparation for the Drone Wars (like the Clone Wars from Star Wars).

My current drone theory: Drones are the future of warfare. We expect a drone war soon, in Iran or elsewhere. Our supply of drones far exceeds our supply of drone pilots. We need massive training, and fast. ... No other theory explains the need to fly every night and in multiple locations for weeks on end. . . Yet quit at 11 PM every night. My pattern recognition says we’re planning for war, and soon.

Read also: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/12/invasion-drones-breaking-truth-behind-mystery-drones-new/

More Magical Money Tree Propaganda

 

Source: https://www.mmted.org/smithfamily/

Hey kids, some more entertaining propaganda from Magical Money Tree economists.  Learn that the government is the source of all wealth and they have an unlimited supply of money, and they should use the money to fight climate change.

The November 2024 deficit was $365 billion

The federal government incurred a deficit of $365 billion in November 2024, CBO estimates—$51 billion more than the deficit recorded last November. The federal budget deficit totaled $622 billion in October and November 2024, the first two months of fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $242 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Outlays were $191 billion (or 18 percent) higher, and revenues were $50 billion (or 7 percent) lower.  https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60844/html

Net interest YTD was $163 billion, and since October interest was $80 billion, November interest was $83 billion.  Compare this to November 2023 when interest was $77 billion.  This is an increase of 8%.

The national debt as of 11/30/24 was $36.1 trillion compared to $33.9 trillion as of 11/30/23, so this is 6.5% higher.

The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $210.97 billion as of 11/27/24.  See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW .  This is up from $207 billion as of 10/30/24,  so it increased $3.97 billion for the month. This is a slower rate of increase than the past, when this averaged about $7 billion per month.

===================

Medicare spending is way up.  YTD Medicare is $205 billion, up from $102 billion in the same period in fiscal year 2024.  The government now spend more on Medicare than defense or on net interest on the debt.  There is no explanation of why this has increased 100% from last year.

==================

The $622 billion YTD deficit is the worst it has ever been including the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.  See https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/government-spending-shock-us-budget-deficit-worst-start-year-record

I think the Biden administration is trying to go out with a bang and spend as much money as possible before the cops (Trump and Musk) show up and end the party.

See also: https://confoundedinterest.net/2024/12/12/biden-boogie-bidens-final-punch-in-the-jaw-greatest-fiscal-deficit-to-start-the-year-in-history-largest-debt-load-interest-expense-now-exceeds-social-security/

This has a couple of cool charts showing that FY 2025 is starting off much worse than even 2020 and 2021.  Just to compare, the FY 2020 deficit was $3.132 trillion, and the FY 2021 deficit was $2.770 trillion.  

Will FY 2025 be higher than both of those?  Probably not, this is just the revenge of the bitter a-hole bureaucrats who hate America on their way out the door.  But if there is a recession and tax revenue slows down, then this could be the worst year, fiscally speaking, in US history.

Joni Ernst's 22 ways to save $2 Trillion

 Joni Ernst, of course, is a Senator from Iowa, and she is working with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy of DOGE to make government more efficient.

Her 22 steps are here: https://x.com/SenJoniErnst/status/1861173088374718885

The first 5 are:

1. Ghost Workers.  The government can save $15.7 billion per year by not leasing office space where nobody works.

2. Audit the IRS. Hundreds of IRS agents are delinquent on their tax, and over 150,000 government workers owe back taxes totalling over $1.5 billion.  (Can't they just take the taxes from their paychecks?)

3. Undo Boondoggles.  Including $7.5 billion to build EV charging stations (which built 17) and $42 billion to expand rural broadband (which connected nobody).

4. Cancel the California trains. This will save $144 billion.

5.  Stop Christmas in September.  Government agencies rush to spend money on anything in September to justify their budgets.  This will save $53 billion.

And the most interesting one to me:

8. Trillion Dollar Secret Slush Funds. There are over $1.6 trillion in unobligated funds. It is not clear, but apparently the money has already been disbursed by Treasury and is sitting in (off-shore?) bank accounts waiting to be spent.  I would like to know more about this.

Update:  Here is a document listing the unobligated funds.  https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/balances_fy2024.pdf

The Department of HUD by itself has $190 billion in unobligated funds.  (How about abolishing HUD?).  International Assistance Programs have $233 billion.  

The State of the States

Connecticut 

(Image source: https://www.countryclubprep.com/blogs/fox-tales/the-evolution-of-preppy-a-stylish-journey-from-the-1960s-to-today)
 

Truth in Accounting publishes an annual report called Financial State of the States.  The latest version is here: https://www.truthinaccounting.org/library/doclib/Financial-State-of-the-States-2024.pdf

The states in the best financial shape are: North Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Utah, and Tennessee.  The states in the worst financial spare are: Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, and California.  

I'm going to pick on Connecticut for a minutes because it's hard to beat Illinois.  I've never been to Connecticut, but I have a really good image of the place.  You can fact check this info later.  It's full of rich people, whose kids go to Yale.  They all have mansions in the nicest part of NYC, Fairfax County.  They are driven to work in Manhattan in limos.  They run the insurance companies, and build nuclear submarines, and have yachts and play tennis and croquet and polo and basketball and rugby.  They row boats for fun (or is that Boston).  The college kids all dress preppy, with white shorts and polo shirts and the girls all wear tennis skirts to show off their tan legs. And they wear sweaters with patterns on them.  Every house has a huge green lawn.  In the fall, when the leaves change colors it is to beautiful.  And in the winter, they ride around in sleighs pulled by horses with bells.

So how could Connecticut be the armpit of the nation, worse than even New Jersey?  Because it is so far in debt.  The State of the States report says it is in debt $64.9 billion.  The report says that this $44,300 per person. (I don't know how this is calculated because 3.6 million people live in the state).  Compare this to New York which has slightly higher debt with $74.7 billion but a population of 19.5 million.

Why is Connecticut so much in debt? Most of it is unfunded pensions and retirement health benefits.  But this can't be the whole picture.  To be updated if I find out anything else.

NATO is incompetent and unnecessary

 Read: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/fat-and-stupid-why-nato-is-good-for

The controversial topic of this post is that NATO is incompetent and unnecessary.  It has a budget of about $4 billion (of which the US pays 70%), and employs about 10,000 people.  NATO is a way for generals and bureaucrats to pretend to be important.  

It is unnecessary because the true defense of Europe is done by the US European Command in Stuttgart, Germany. (The commander of the US European Command, US General Christopher Cavoli, is also the commander of NATO Allied Command Operations).  NATO is basically just there to give the US Army permission to operate in Europe.

NATO also has political functions, with two parliamentary bodies, North Atlantic Council, and NATO Parliamentary Assembly, which duplicates the European Union.  Members send separate ambassadors (aka Permanent Representatives) to NATO, to the European Union, and to Belgium, all located in Brussels.  

The European Union also has its own military, separate from the US European Command and NATO, called the Common Security and Defence Policy, also located in Brussels, with its own budget of $250 billion per year.  Also note that Belgium also has its own military, also headquartered in Brussels, but with only 25,000 soldiers.

NATO is incompetent because it doesn't actually do anything.  It is a quasi-political organization, and a quasi-military body, but it is incompetent at both.

To be continued ...

========================================

Update: Nov 4

NATO has two separate militaries, Allied Command Operations (www.shape.nato.int), headquartered in Mons, Belgium, and Allied Command Transformation (www.act.nato.int) headquartered in Norfolk, VA.

ACT is totally woke and is promoting all-female teams as a strategic advantage.  Because women are so good at war.

Gender is one area that has demonstrated operational advantage to NATO forces. Studies have shown that teams with diverse members generate a wider range of ideas and approaches. For example, according to Ms. Tess Butler, CEO of Ruddy Nice Ltd., the composition of wargaming teams can impact the tactics the team will use, with all female teams acting more often, but more covertly, as compared to all male teams.  This diversity of thought delivers a decisive military advantage against NATO’s adversary, Russia, and in the deterrence and defence against all potential threats. Integrating gender perspective into military planning helps create warfighting dilemmas for the enemy.  https://www.act.nato.int/article/gender-perspectives-warfighting-advantage/

Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies

 

Source: https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/30/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-10-4-just-below-worst-of-financial-crisis-cre-meltdown-fastest-2-year-spike-ever/

Over the past two years, the delinquency rate for office CMBS has spiked by 8.8 percentage points, far faster than even the worst two-year period during the Financial Crisis (+6.3 percentage points in the two years through November 2010). The office sector of commercial real estate has entered a depression, and despite pronouncements earlier this year by big CRE players that office has hit bottom, we get another wakeup call:

The office sector of commercial real estate has entered a - what?

I repeat my prediction of a recession to start about February 1, 2025.