Wednesday, November 6, 2024

How America Became Unburdened By What Has Been

 Here is an excellent summary listing the 10 reasons why Trump won.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2024/11/how-america-became-unburdened-by-what-has-been/

1. “It’s The Economy, Stupid!”

2. Immigration, Both Legal & Illegal, Is Out Of Control

3. Folks Are Afraid Of World War III

4. The Media’s Smears Against Trump No Longer Work

5. Musk Restored Freedom Of Speech Online

6. Musk, RFK, & Tulsi Made It Cool To Defect From The Democrats

7. The Amish & Poles Helped Trump Pull Ahead In Pennsylvania

8. The Republicans’ GOTV Campaign Made All The Difference. (The aggressive get out the vote campaign with early voting and ballot harvesting).

9. Abortion Is No Longer An Issue In Presidential Elections

10. Walz Was One Of The Worst VP Picks Imaginable

Monday, November 4, 2024

Election Prediction - Harris will win


This is my prediction of what will happen tomorrow and in the next few weeks after that, when they finish counting and recounting.  There was massive fraud in 2020 that hasn't been addressed, and it will happen again in Pennsylvania.

Update 11/5/24: Obviously, this didn't happen.  The 3 AM votes never showed up.

I think there are still issues with voting integrity and procedures as evidenced by the fact that now, over 12 hours after all the polls have closed, several states still have less than 80% of the votes counted: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Oregon, Utah, Washington.  (All of these are blue states except for Alaska, Arizona and Utah). There were also claims of voting irregularities in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado.  I think all of these states should examine their voting procedures and study how to improve them.  



Wednesday, October 30, 2024

GDP is now $29.35 trillion

 Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent at an annual rate, or $333.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $29.35 trillion. https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2024-advance-estimate

One year ago it was $27.6 trillion, so it has increased 6.3% over the last year. Debt to the public is at $28.45 trillion, so the ratio is 96.9%.  One year ago the ratio was at 96.0%.

Total national debt outstanding is $35.8 trillion, so the ratio (of national debt to GDP) is 122%. 

Wednesday, October 23, 2024

New Largest Prime Number

 October 21, 2024 — The Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search (GIMPS) has discovered a new Mersenne prime number, 2136,279,841-1. At 41,024,320 digits, it eclipses by more than 16 million digits the previous largest known prime number found by GIMPS nearly 6 years ago.  

Source: https://www.mersenne.org/

The previous largest prime number was 2^82,589,933-1.  So there is a ginormous gap between the previous prime and this.  I think there must be some other prime number hiding in the gap, waiting to be discovered.


Thursday, October 17, 2024

Alex Berenson v Joseph R Biden Jr

 Read the complaint here, all 94 pages of it.

https://envisage.law/alex-berenson-v-president-joe-biden-et-al-amended/

Biden conspired with Andrew Slavitt and other to deny Alex Berenson his First Amendment rights.  I hope the defendants get slapped, hard.  This will probably go to the Supreme Court.

What is the Reasonable and Prudent Parenting Standard?

So there is a buzzword going around in the social welfare system - Reasonable and Prudent Parenting Standard - also known as RPPS.  It basically means that foster parents should use their common sense when making decisions for their foster children.  But what is the legal definition?

It has its origins in the "Preventing Sex Trafficking and Strengthening Families Act"  of 2014:

Sec 111  SUPPORTING NORMALCY FOR CHILDREN IN FOSTER CARE

(a) Reasonable and Prudent Parent Standard.—

(3)  Technical assistance.— The Secretary of Health and Human Services shall provide assistance to the States on best practices for devising strategies to assist foster parents in applying a reasonable and prudent parent standard in a manner that protects child safety, while also allowing children to experience normal and beneficial activities, including methods for appropriately considering the concerns of the biological parents of a child in decisions related to participation of the child in activities (with the understanding that those concerns should not necessarily determine the participation of the child in any activity).

From 42 USC § 675(10): 

(10) (A) The term “reasonable and prudent parent standard” means the standard characterized by careful and sensible parental decisions that maintain the health, safety, and best interests of a child while at the same time encouraging the emotional and developmental growth of the child, that a caregiver shall use when determining whether to allow a child in foster care under the responsibility of the State to participate in extracurricular, enrichment, cultural, and social activities. (B) For purposes of subparagraph (A), the term “caregiver” means a foster parent with whom a child in foster care has been placed or a designated official for a child care institution in which a child in foster care has been placed.

It is also referenced in 42 USC 671(10):

(B)that the standards established pursuant to subparagraph (A) shall be applied by the State to any foster family home or child care institution receiving funds under this part or part B and shall require, as a condition of each contract entered into by a child care institution to provide foster care, the presence on-site of at least 1 official who, with respect to any child placed at the child care institution, is designated to be the caregiver who is authorized to apply the reasonable and prudent parent standard to decisions involving the participation of the child in age or developmentally-appropriate activities, and who is provided with training in how to use and apply the reasonable and prudent parent standard in the same manner as prospective foster parents are provided the training pursuant to paragraph (24);

(C)that the standards established pursuant to subparagraph (A) shall include policies related to the liability of foster parents and private entities under contract by the State involving the application of the reasonable and prudent parent standard, to ensure appropriate liability for caregivers when a child participates in an approved activity and the caregiver approving the activity acts in accordance with the reasonable and prudent parent standard

This all seems kind of vague.  How is it applied?  It comes up when there is a decision to be made for the foster child.  Who makes the decision - do you need to go to court and get a judge to sign an order, or do you have to ask the caseworker, or do you have to ask the biological parent, or do you ask the child?  It depends on the type of decision.  But for most decisions, the foster parent can decide.  

But what is the actual standard?  I haven't found the legal definition of the standard (but I will keep looking), but each state welfare system provides its own definition.  Here is a typical one:

The reasonable and prudent parent standard asks caregivers to make decisions for youth just as they would for their own children. It is characterized by careful and sensible decisions that maintain the health, safety, and best interest of the child, while also encouraging growth through participation in age and developmentally appropriate activities.  (Source: https://www.nj.gov/dcf/about/divisions/dcpp/rpps_pg.html)

So it basically delegates to the foster parent the decision making authority based on the "best interest of the child", which is another vague buzzword.

This raises an interesting question - what if the foster child challenges the foster parent's decision?  How would they do so, could they contact the caseworker and complain or could they get an attorney (a guardian ad litem) and go to court and ask the judge to decide?

Monday, October 14, 2024

CBZ Management versus the City of Aurora

 Read:  https://x.com/CbzManagement/

Source: @CbzManagement 

CBZ Management, which is based in Brooklyn NY, is an an X rampage against Aurora.  The photo, taken in late 2023, shows a property manager for CBZ (Zev Baumgarten?) who was nearly beaten to death after confronting Venezuelan squatters in one of the apartments he was managing.   The city continues to deny that there is any problem.

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

September 2024 surplus was $63 billion

 Read: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-10/60730-MBR.pdf

The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. The estimated deficit for 2024 was $139 billion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2023.

Net interest on the public debt was $950 billion for the year, and $80 billion for September [$950 billion - $870 billion as of the end of August].

==========================

The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $199.8 billion as of 9/25/2024, (the last Wednesday in fiscal year 2024), compared to $193.3 billion as of 8/28/24.  So this increased $6.5 billion in the month.

==========================

The National Debt as of 9/30/24 is $35.465 trillion. One year earlier on 9/30/23 it was $33.167 trillion.  So it increased 6.9% in one year.

==========================

Note that the National Debt increased $2.3 trillion in one year, but the deficit for the year was only $1.8 trillion.  So there is a "leakage", for lack of a better term, of $500 billion.  So projections of the debt should include this.

Monday, September 30, 2024

The Bilt Card


This card has an interesting sales pitch.  Pay rent, get points, use the points for travel.

Sanctions don't work anymore

 Read:  https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/collapsing-empire-the-day-sanctions

Accordingly, WaPo reports that the deleterious “overuse” of sanctions “is recognized at the highest levels” of the US government, and “concern about their impact has grown” in line with their use: “Some senior administration officials have told President Biden directly that overuse of sanctions risks making the tool less valuable.” However, US officials still can’t kick their sanctions habit, “[tending] to see each individual action as justified, making it hard to stop the trend.”

As the mainstream media is now frequently forced to admit, Western sanctions on Moscow not only failed to produce universally forecast economic destruction, but revitalised domestic industry and increased wages for average citizens. In May, The Spectator begrudgingly observed, “Russians are spending more on restaurants, white goods, and even property - they’ve never had it so good.” Meanwhile, Europe, electively cut off from the country’s cheap energy supplies due to those sanctions, is deindustrialising at rapacious speed.

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Will the Port strike shut down the economy next week?

 Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpqhYxd3ShI

The International Longshoreman's Association (ILA) will go on strike on October 1.  They represent 85,000 port workers in Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, Miami, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Wilmington NC, Norfolk, Baltimore, Wilmington DE, Philadelphia, Ports of NJ and NY, and Boston and others. 56% of all US cargo traffic will be affected.

If the strike lasts more than a few days, the effects will be devastating.  This may be an exaggeration, but auto dealers may be forced to close (because new cars can't be delivered), and gas stations may be forced to close (because they run out of gas), and delivery by trucks will stop.  Amazon may have to shut down.  Christmas may have to be cancelled because consumer good can't be obtained.

The ILA workers are currently paid an average of $39/hour and want a 77% raise over the next 6 years.  They also want a total ban on any port automation, including presumably automated gates, self-driving trucks, robotic cranes, etc.  The USMX has offered a 40% increase in wages.  The pay is probably not the sticking point, but the automation is.  

I think the ILA position is unreasonable, and the strike will probably go on for a few weeks until the President (or whoever is controlling him) will step in and force a settlement right before the election, which won't make his party popular.

Let's see what happens.  I think it will be crazy in about a week.

Update: The strike has been postponed until January 15, 2025, just in time for the new president to deal with.  https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/04/business/port-strike-ends-whats-next/index.html

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Renminbi with duplicate serial numbers

 

 Apparently, whoever prints money in China has been printing duplicates or even triplicates, and it is impossible to determine the fakes since they are of such high quality.

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Eat the Cat


Orange Man says eating cats is bad.

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Dark Winter

 Dark Winter was an extremely realistic pandemic war game exercise held just before 9/11 in 2001 involving a fictional smallpox attack. It predicted rioting and the National Guard on the streets and basically the imposition of martial law.  This influenced the handling of Covid-19.

Read:    https://substack.com/@democracymanifest/p-148108121

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-pandemic-war-games-simulation-dark-winter/

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/34/7/972/316999

https://centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/tabletop-exercises/dark-winter-a-training-tabletop-exercise


Fed cuts rates by 0.5% on September 18

 2007, that is.

Interest rates slashed to help economy

Fed's dramatic action lowers target on key short-term rate for the first time in 4 years - to 4.75% - and signals more cuts could be coming.

By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Federal Reserve cut the target on a key short-term interest rate by half of a percentage point Tuesday to 4.75% in a bold acknowledgement that the central bank is concerned the mortgage meltdown plaguing Wall Street and Main Street could hurt the economy. The Fed also indicated that more rate cuts could be on the way, news that investors cheered. Stocks surged following the announcement.


From: https://money.cnn.com/2007/09/18/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm


Commentary:  I think the Fed is following a script and will announce cuts of half a percentage today.  To be updated with the breaking news later today.


================

Update:


Jumbo-sized rate cut: Fed slashes rates by a half percentage point


By Bryan Mena, Elisabeth Buchwald and Krystal Hur, CNN

Updated 5:09 PM EDT, Wed September 18, 2024


What we're covering here

In a significant shift for the US economy, the Federal Reserve announced a jumbo-sized rate cut Wednesday, its first rate reduction cut since Covid. It’s a major economic milestone both for the central bank’s long fight with inflation and for Americans battling a higher cost of living for the past two years.


From: https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-09-18-24/index.html


==============

Future rate cut schedule:


FOMC Meeting     Cut         New Rate

=========== ===== ========

Sep. 18, 2024             -50 4.75%

Oct. 31, 2024             -25 4.50%

Dec. 11, 2024             -25 4.25%

Jan. 22, 2025             -75 3.50%

Jan. 30, 2025             -50 3.00%

Mar. 18, 2025             -75 2.25%

Apr. 30, 2025             -25 2.00%


From: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/

(I just took the historical dates in 2007 and 2008 and added 17 years to them).


The recession will start on December 1, 2024 if the 17-year cycle continues to repeat.



Sunday, September 15, 2024

Report on the UK National Debt

 Read: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ldselect/ldeconaf/5/5.pdf

The summary is three pages long, but I think this states it succinctly:  To ensure debt is on a sustainable path, we face a choice. If we wish to improve the level and quality of services, and continue the current provision of benefits, taxes will need to rise. The alternative is that the state does less. Addressing this will demand clarity as to the responsibilities and role of the individual versus that of the state. If this choice is ducked during this Parliament, the UK risks being on a path to unsustainable debt. Muddling through is not an option. 

It doesn't give a year when it thinks debt levels would be unsustainable.

It might be interesting to read this and pick out the British idioms.  Here are a few:

  • muddling through
  • ducked
  • fit for purpose
  • pump prime ("prime the pump")
  • gilt (meaning "bond")
  • short-termism

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Trillions of taxpayer dollars are missing


In this clip from a recent episode of the Children's Health Defense series, Financial Rebellion, Investment banker and former HUD official Catherine Austin Fitts describes how the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) has spent $20 trillion of taxpayer money (between 1998 and 2015) that has gone undocumented and unaccounted for. Fitts also highlights the fact that the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has done the same with $1 trillion of taxpayer money. Full Report: https://home.solari.com/

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

The deficit in August 2024 was $381 billion

 From: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-09/60592-MBR.pdf

The deficit in August 2024 was $381 billion, CBO estimates—compared with a surplus of $89 billion recorded in August 2023. The federal budget deficit was $1.9 trillion [$1.898 trillion] in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$373 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues were $420 billion (or 11 percent) higher and outlays were $793 billion (or 14 percent) higher from October through August than they were during the same period in fiscal year 2023.

Net interest in August 2024 was $88 billion (870 - 782), up from $72 billion in August 2023.

On 8/31/2024, the national debt was $35.256 trillion, up from $32.914 trillion on 8/31/2023, so it increased 7.1% in one year.

The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $193.3 billion (as of 8/28/2024) compared to $186.3 billion (as of 7/31/24), an increase of $7.0 billion for the month. See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW  .  It should exceed $200 billion next month.

==================

Update (9/14):  Most of the August deficit is due to an accounting charge by the Department of Education.  Outlays by the Department of Education increased by $315 billion, largely because the Administration recorded a decrease of $330 billion in August 2023 to reflect the June 2023 Supreme Court decision prohibiting the cancellation of outstanding loans for many borrowers. Excluding the reversal of that proposed debt cancellation, net spending by the department decreased by $15 billion, primarily because increases in the estimated costs of outstanding loans recorded in the first 11 months of 2023 were larger than the increases recorded for those costs for the same period in 2024. 

If this change was take out, then the monthly deficit would be only $66 billion.

I don't understand how this affects the deficit at all.  Loans to students are assets to the government, and if you cancel the loans, then the asset balance decreases.  And if you undue the cancellation, then the asset balance increases.  This has no impact on the national debt. 

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Hybrid sedans with the best MPG

 Here is my list of hybrid cars with the combined best miles per gallon.  These numbers may have a range of error and are subject to change. They also vary by trim within the same brand.

1. Toyota Prius hybrid (57)

2. Kia Niro hybrid (53). (This is a crossover, not a true sedan)

3. Toyota Camry Hybrid LE (52).  The Camry is bigger than the Corolla, but it also has a bigger battery and bigger engine (2.5L for Camry vs 2.0L for Corolla) and it is more efficient at higher speeds.  

4. Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE (50).

5. Hyundai Elantra hybrid (50).  Also see Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid, discontinued in 2022 (55).

6. Honda Civic hybrid (49)

7. Honda Accord EX hybrid (48)

8. Hyundai Sonata hybrid (47)

9. Lexus ES hybrid (44)

10. Lexus UX hybrid (43)

11. Toyota Corolla Cross hybrid (42). (This is a crossover, not a true sedan)

12. Toyota Crown hybrid (41)

This does not include SUV which is a separate list.

===========

Update: Another list has:

2024 BMW 750e xDrive with 56 mpg. It costs $107,000.

2024 BMW 330e supposedly gets 76 mpg and only costs $45,600

2024 Toyota Prius Prime SE supposedly gets 129 mpg and costs $32,000

A new episode of the Smith Family

 

Source: https://www.mmted.org/smithfamily/

Hey kids, there is a new episode of your favorite propaganda comic strip.  Learn how Professor Noitawl is stupid for worrying about the Debt Mountain, because the government can just spend whatever it wants.  (Just don't ask how hyper-inflation gets started).