I just downloaded this for free - available from https://www.swift.com/swift-resource/184556/download . ISO 20022 is the language that banks use on the SWIFT network. The book doesn't actually go into the details, instead it is just an introduction. ISO 20022 is - surprise - an XML format. See also https://www.iso20022.org/ .
Aftermath 2022 Blog
Amateur speculations on the State of the Economy
Monday, May 5, 2025
Anacyclosis
The Greek historian Polybius was one of the first to document the cycle of civilisational birth and death via a process he termed “anacyclosis.” Nor was this a purely academic exercise. Born in 198BC, Polybius had witnessed first hand the triumph of a powerful Roman Republic over the city states of ancient Greece… Polybius himself taken to Rome as a hostage (although enjoying considerable freedom to observe the mechanics of the Roman system and even to accompany armies on their campaigns). This allowed Polybius to claim that the Romans had discovered the secret sauce which prevented their decline and fall (although if he had lived a few decades longer he would have witnessed the corruption and conflict which caused the Romans to morph from a republic to an empire).
Polybius’s cycle comes in seven stages. First, is a kind of distressed primitive anarchy in which nobody is in charge. But sooner or later, in stage two, a warlord emerges to impose order, ushering in a monarchy. Monarchy – particularly where it is heredity – gradually descends into stage three, tyranny, until such times as even the elites become fed up, and usher in stage four – aristocracy. Aristocrats though, tend to become self-interested over time, leading to stage five – oligarchy. Eventually, oligarchy is overthrown by a popular uprising which ushers in stage six – democracy. But democracy is susceptible to corruption and grift, with representatives making false promises while imposing increased taxes at every opportunity. Until ultimately – stage seven – the civilisation descends into chaos and a dark age ensues.
The Roman Republic appeared to have overcome this cycle by balancing the three positives – monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy in a way which prevented any one of the three negatives – tyranny, oligarchy, and anarchy – from breaking out. And it is worth noting that both the British and the American empires in the modern era adopted similar checks and balances – Britain having an actual king (monarchy) a house of Lords (aristocracy) and a house of commons (democracy). America a pseudo, presidential king (monarchy) a judiciary (aristocracy) and a congress (democracy). But note also that over time both systems have been pushed remorselessly in the direction of democracy even as democracy has become ever more venal. https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/05/03/the-world-ended-in-1999/
Friday, May 2, 2025
A portrait of JD Vance
This is interesting but I don't have time to read it. Excerpt: "When FDR died shortly before the end of World War II, Vice President Harry Truman took over, who, in [Curtis] Yarvin’s narrative, wasn’t even close to having the ability to keep all the influence FDR had wielded inside the White House. This was the moment, according to Yarvin’s theory, that the power shift took place that continues to the present day – one in which a bureaucracy holds sway over Washington, no matter who happens to be sitting in the Oval Office. It was the moment that the "Deep State,” as Trump and Vance refer to it, was born."
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
GDP is now $30.0 Trillion
See https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-advance-estimate
The BEA headline says that GDP decreased by 0.3% but if you look at the actual data by clicking on "key source data and assumptions" it shows that Gross Domestic Product for 2025Q1 is 29,977.6, up from 29,723.9 in 2024Q4.
The ratio of Debt to the Public ($28.9 trillion as of 3/31/25) to GDP ($30.0 trillion) is now 96.3%. One year ago, the ratio was 97.0%, so this has decreased. Over that time the GDP increased $1.7 trillion, and Debt to the Public increased by $1.4 trillion (from $27.5 trillion to $28.9 trillion).
What about 2 years ago? On 3/31/2023, debt to the public was $24.7 trillion and GDP for 1Q 2023 was $26.5 trillion. So the ratio then was 93.2%. So this ratio has increased 3.1% over the past 2 years.
I like the trend. I think we really have to wait until the 3rd quarter 2025, after the debt ceiling has been lifted and see what the ratio is then.
Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Top Cities in the World 2025 Edition
For the first 50 cities, this is ranked by the number of Millionaires the city has, from this source: https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/wealthiest-cities-2025/top-50-cities-millionaires
I combined Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
For the next 50, this is ranked by GDP from this source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_GDP
1. New York City 384,500 2. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose 342,400 3. Tokyo 292,300 4. Singapore 242,400 5. Los Angeles-Orange County-Riverside-San Bernadino 220,600 6. London 215,700 7. Washington DC-Baltimore MD US, 200,000 estimate 8. Paris 160,100 9. Hong Kong 154,900 10. Sydney 152,900 11. Chicago 127,100 12. Milan 115,000 13. Beijing-Tianjin, China 114,300 14. Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe, Japan, 112,200 15. Shanghai-Suzhou, China 110,500 16. Toronto 108,400 17. Melbourne Australia 94,000 18. Houston TX 81,800 19. Dubai/Sharjah UAE 81,200 20. Frankfurt, Germany, 80,300 21. Zurich Canton, Switzerland, 77,800 22. Guangzhou-Foshan-Dongguan-Shenzhen 75,100 23. Dallas-Fort Worth, US, 72,400 24. Geneva Canton, Switzerland, 70,200 25. Munich, Germany, 69,800 26. Seoul/Incheon, South Korea 66,000 27. Seattle, US, 53,100 28. Rome, Italy, 51,800 29. Mumbai, India, 51,200 30. Vancouver, Canada 46,400 31. Amsterdam, Netherlands, 46,100 32. Boston, US, 45,000 33. Miami, US 38,800 34. Madrid Spain, 34,900 35. Perth, Australia, 34,600 36. Hangzhou, China 32,200 37. Austin TX, US, 31,500 38. Vienna Austria, 31,500 39. Taipei City, Taiwan, 31,400 40. Delhi, India, 31,200 41. Moscow, Russia, 30,000 42. Berlin, Germany, 28,400 43. Brisbane, Australia, 26,400 44. Nice France, 25,500 45. Manchester-Trafford UK, 23,400 46. Stockholm Sweden, 23,100 47. Tel Aviv, Israel, 22,600 48. Dublin, Ireland, 22,300 49. Lisbon, Portugal, 22,200 -------------------------- 50. Rhine-Ruhr, Germany (634) 51. Atlanta GA (571) 52. Philadelphia (558) 53. Chongqing (452) 54. Phoenix AZ (398) 55. Nagoya/Chukyo, Japan (379) 56. Begaluru India (360) 57. Minneapolis/St Paul MN (351) 58. Mexico City (341) 59. Jakarta, Indonesia (339) 60. Detroit MI (331) 61. São Paulo, Brazil (319) 62. San Diego CA (315) 63. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO (312) 64. Stuttgart Germany (295) 65. Dhaka Bangladesh (285) 66. Wuhan China (281) 67. Abu Dhabi UAE (278) 68. Istanbul Turkey (275) 69. Hamburg, Germany (261) 70. Chengdu China (260) 71. Charlotte, NC (256) 72. Busan South Korea (252) 73. Bangkok Thailand (252) 74. Nanjing China (251) 75. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (244) 76. Tampa/St Petersburg, FL (243) 77. Brussels Belgium (237) 78. Buenos Aires (236) 79. Ningbo China (234) 80. St Louis MO (227) 81. Qingdao China (222) 82. Kolkata, India (220) 83. Chennai India (219) 84. Portland OR (219) 85. Orlando FL (217) 86. Changsha China (208) 87. Nashville TN (205) 88. Montreal, Canada (203) 89. Indianapolis, IN (199) 90. Cincinnati OH (199) 91. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (195) 92. Pittsburg PA (194) 93. Zhengzhou, China (193) 94. Cairo, Egypt (190) 95. Sacramento, CA (190) 96. Hannover Germany (186) 97. Kansas City MO (186) 98. Fukuoka–Kitakyushu Japan (183) 99. Barcelona Spain (183) 100. San Antonio TX (182)
Monday, April 28, 2025
I am not the Antichrist
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Abdullah Hashem |
I stay away from religion on this blog, but this is too weird not to mention. This guy named Abdullah Hashem was apparently born (of Egyptian immigrant parents) somewhere in the US on July 27, 1983. He went to Indiana University-Purdue University in Indianapolis where he studied comparative religion. He started his own religion called AROPL (Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light), and he claims to be the successor of the Prophet Mohammed and he also claims to be the successor of St Peter and the true Pope of Rome.
His base of operations keeps changing, from Egypt to Germany to Sweden and now the UK (near Manchester). He has about 300 followers and makes YouTube videos. In one of his latest ones, he denies being the Antichrist. (He says the United States is the Antichrist).
Reference: The 'Antichrist' Just Denied It—Then Exposed the REAL One (YouTube)
Official Website of Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light
Divine Just State (online magazine about the Ahmadi religion)
The Kellogg Map for Ukraine
Source: https://www.unz.com/acrooke/the-kellogg-framework-is-a-disaster-for-trump/
The map doesn't make this clear, but the Zaporozhye (spelling?) power plant would be placed under US control. Also, areas of Zaporozhye and Kherson beyond the contact line, which are already claimed (but not controlled) by Russia today, would remain in Ukrainian control. Also, Ukraine would only recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea, not the other four oblasts (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia), so these would be an open wound.
Do you think either side would go for this?
Friday, April 25, 2025
Pope Pizzaball
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Pope Peter Pizzaball? |
I am not Catholic, but I am rooting for Cardinal Pizzaball, soon maybe to be Pope Pizzaball, just because of his awesome name. He is currently the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem.
https://collegeofcardinalsreport.com/cardinals/pierbattista-pizzaballa/
Tuesday, April 22, 2025
Gold hits $3400
It seems like it only last month that it hit $3000 per ounce. Remember that it was $1850 per ounce on 10/5/23.
When will it hit $4000? It seems safe to say by the end of the year.
Thursday, April 17, 2025
Democrats grovel before the mighty Bukele
First is Senator Chris Van Hollen from Maryland. The Salvadoran government on Wednesday rebuffed Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s (D-Md.) request to meet or speak with a wrongfully deported Maryland man, the senator said, accusing the Trump administration and others of lying about Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s gang ties. Van Hollen said Salvadoran Vice President Félix Ulloa told him the government had no information connecting Abrego Garcia to MS-13 but could not accommodate a visit to the notorious CECOT prison, known by its acronym in Spanish. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5252312-van-hollen-abrego-garcia-el-salvador/
But there are more Democrats on the way ready to be humiliated in a virtue signaling ritual. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), the No. 4 Senate Democrat, is planning his own trip, according to a person granted anonymity to discuss his travel plans. And in the House, Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) and Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) said they intend to go to El Salvador “as soon as possible,” as has another Oversight Committee member, Rep. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.). Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) mounted another push Wednesday through the House Homeland Security Committee. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/16/kilmar-abrego-garcia-congress-el-salvador-00295147
Wednesday, April 16, 2025
Ley de Emisión de Activos Digitales (LEAD)
The "Ley de Emisión de Activos Digitales" (Law of Issuance Digital Assets) is an El Salvadoran law passed in 2022 to regulate digital assets, including but not limited to cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.
The English translation is available here: https://cnad.gob.sv/documentation-library/legal-framework/#flipbook-ley-de-activos-digitales-2023-eng/1/
The regulating commission is CNAD (National Commission of Digital Assets).
See also: https://gfintegrity.org/changes-to-the-digital-assets-issuance-law-in-el-salvador/
Contempt
Monday, April 14, 2025
Who is Paolo Ardoino?
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Paolo Ardoino, President of Tether |
Paolo Ardoino. He was born in Italy, but guess where he lives? El Salvador
The world's coolest dictator
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Nayib Bukele Ortez, El Presidente de la Republica de El Salvador |
His name is Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez, and he is the most important person in the world right now.
There is a lot to say on this but here is one fact point.
President of El Salvador says he won't return mistakenly deported man to U.S.
El Salvador President Nayib Bukele told reporters during a meeting with President Donald Trump on Monday that he would not return a man the Justice Department said it had mistakenly deported to his country. "How can I return him to the United States? Like if I smuggle him into the United States?" Bukele said, sitting beside Trump in the Oval Office, when asked if he’d return Kilmar Abrego Garcia. "Of course I'm not going to do it. The question is preposterous."
Tether Financial Statements
From: https://tether.to/ru/transparency/?tab=reports
As of 12/31/2024, Tether had liabilities of $136.6 billion, which is the amount of Tether outstanding. "Tether tokens issued have been classified as refund liabilities in line with IFRS 9, which are repayable on demand, and are recorded at the contractual redemption value of the tokens." I don't know what IFRS 9 is, but that is a topic of a different post. And here are assets.
I like the transparency here. I think the Federal Reserve has a competitor.
What is the official corporation behind Tether? Tether Holdings, S.A. de C.V. And where were they incorporated? El Salvador.
Tether International is a Salvadoran company registered in El Salvador Commercial Registry and having its registered office in Edificio Torre Futura, Ocina 6, Nivel 11, entre 87 y 89 avenida norte, Colonia Escalón, San Salvador, El Salvador; is a Stablecoin Issuer authorized by the CNAD and Digital Assets Service Provider (DASP) authorized by the CNAD with the Registration Number PSAD – 0028. Tether International is wholly owned by Tether Holdings Sociedad Anonima De Capital Variable (“Tether Holdings” or “Tether Holdings, S.A. de C.V.”) and Tether Operations Sociedad Anonima De Capital Variable (“Tether Operations” or “Tether Operations, S.A. de C.V.”); both incorporated and in effect under the Laws of El Salvador, together with their Affiliates referred to herein as the “Tether Group”).
https://tether.to/public/Relevant_Information_Document_-_Tether_International,_S.A._de_C.V..pdf
I intend to follow up with more posts about how El Salvador regulates cryptocurrency, and about cyptocurrency lending.
Wednesday, April 9, 2025
The deficit in March was $163 Billion
See: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61300/html
FYTD interest was $497 billion, so $95 billion for the month.
The Federal Reserve debt was $225.4 billion as of 3/26/25, so it increased $4.3 billion.
The Treasury General Account balance was $405.8 billion as of 3/31/25, so it decreased about $154 billion. Since April will be a surplus because of tax revenue, this may last until July before it runs out of money and they need to raise the debt ceiling.
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Update: The FYTD (fiscal year to date) deficit is $1.307 trillion, the second highest it has ever been as of March 31, only behind fiscal year 2021.
In Praise of Tariffs
Tuesday, April 8, 2025
Tether vs the Federal Reserve
This is based on an article I read a few weeks ago that I can't find. So take this all with a grain of salt and do your own research.
Could Tether be a competitor for the Dollar, or at least Federal Reserve Notes? A dollar is just a unit of measurement, and Federal Reserve Notes (the cash you hold in your hand), bank deposits and credit cards are just implementations of it. Tether is backed by US treasuries, ($126 billion if I remember this correctly), and it earns several billion dollars of interest per year. The Fed loses money every month (because it is partly invested in Mortgage Backed Securities that only pay about 2% interest), although it can always print more.
Can you get a bank account in Tether? Not exactly, you have a wallet, which could get hacked. With Tether you can either buy and sell Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) or convert it directly to the US dollar. But you could keep a good chunk of your money in Bitcoin, convert it to Tether and then sell the Tether whenever you need it at a fixed $1 exchange rate.
To be continued ...
Monday, April 7, 2025
Parallels with the 1630s
Read: https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/04/07/neo-iconoclasm/
One could certainly draw a parallel between the division between elitist (“papist” – itself a term synonymous with the modern left’s use of “nazi” or “fascist”) Catholics and Protestants in the 1630s, and the divide between the modern supranational elites and their useful idiots and the growing national populist movements across the western states. But the more worrying parallel is with the introduction of a new media (the printing press then, social media today) which left the majority (on both sides of the divide) ill-equipped to distinguish between fact and slop. Take a look at the quote from the Cornishman at the beginning of this post. [“Ill-affected posts which fly abroad in such swarms as are able to cloud the pure air of truth and present a dark ignorance to those who have not the two wings of justice and knowledge to fly above them.”] It was not written yesterday, but in 1641 (cited in Michael Braddick’s God’s Fury, England’s Fire: A New History of the English Civil Wars) and refers to the mushrooming volume of printed religious-political pamphlets of the period.
Saturday, April 5, 2025
Budget Resolution H.Con.Res.14
It looks like this will pass. See https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/14
If this passes, that would be awesome. It would set the debt held by the public to $48.6 trillion on 9/30/2034. I previously projected it would be $56.2 trillion on the same date.
Note that every Democratic Senator voted against this, along with Sen Susan Collins and Sen Rand Paul of Kentucky. I think Collins voted against it because it didn't raise the debt ceiling enough and Paul voted against it because it raised the debt ceiling too much.
Update (4/7/25): The Senate made changes and sent it back to the House. I just glanced at it, but it looks like the Senate lowered the numbers. Like in 2034, Debt Held By the Public would be $43,515,483,000,000 which is about $5 trillion less than the House plan.
Update (4/10/25): The news is reporting that this passed with a compromise bill. I don't see the numbers on the version that passed but I will probably do a new post with the numbers when I see it, because I am really interested in this. It is reportedly the Senate version less another $1.5 trillion in cuts.
Update (4/28/25): Here is the text of the compromise bill. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/14/text The numbers are about $5 trillion less than the above number in 2034. But upon further reflection I think the whole thing is a joke. It doesn't have the force of law. And it will be blown out even this fiscal year which will be over in 5 months. For FY 2025, it wants Debt Held by the Public to be $29.3 trillion and Public Debt to be $36.5 trillion. The numbers as of today are $28.9 trillion and $36.2 trillion so we are already within $300 to $400 billion of the proposed limit. And as soon as the debt ceiling is raised, probably in July or August, the debt will almost immediately go up by $1 trillion to refill the Treasury General Account and to end the extraordinary measures.. So the resolution was just a waste of time and effort.