Parallels with the 1630s

 Read: https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/04/07/neo-iconoclasm/

One could certainly draw a parallel between the division between elitist (“papist” – itself a term synonymous with the modern left’s use of “nazi” or “fascist”) Catholics and Protestants in the 1630s, and the divide between the modern supranational elites and their useful idiots and the growing national populist movements across the western states.  But the more worrying parallel is with the introduction of a new media (the printing press then, social media today) which left the majority (on both sides of the divide) ill-equipped to distinguish between fact and slop.  Take a look at the quote from the Cornishman at the beginning of this post. [“Ill-affected posts which fly abroad in such swarms as are able to cloud the pure air of truth and present a dark ignorance to those who have not the two wings of justice and knowledge to fly above them.”] It was not written yesterday, but in 1641 (cited in Michael Braddick’s God’s Fury, England’s Fire: A New History of the English Civil Wars) and refers to the mushrooming volume of printed religious-political pamphlets of the period. 

Budget Resolution H.Con.Res.14

 It looks like this will pass. See https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/14

If this passes, that would be awesome.  It would set the debt held by the public to $48.6 trillion on 9/30/2034.  I previously projected it would be $56.2 trillion on the same date.

Note that every Democratic Senator voted against this, along with Sen Susan Collins and Sen Rand Paul of Kentucky.  I think Collins voted against it because it didn't raise the debt ceiling enough and Paul voted against it because it raised the debt ceiling too much.

Update (4/7/25): The Senate made changes and sent it back to the House.  I just glanced at it, but it looks like the Senate lowered the numbers.  Like in 2034, Debt Held By the Public would be $43,515,483,000,000 which is about $5 trillion less than the House plan.

CBO Projects the Debt of $167 trillion by 2055

 First, read their actual report here: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61270

They don't say anything about the actual number, just the percent of GDP.  I previously projected GDP using forecasts from the Social Security Administration, which use an average nominal increase of 4.2% per year.  So now we can see what the picture should look like 30 years in the future, based entirely on government sources.

  
Year  GDP     % of GDP Debt
====  =====   ======== =====
2025  31,000  100      31,000
2035  46,000  118      54,000
2045  70,000  136      95,000
2055 107,000  156     167,000

I rounded all the numbers to the nearest trillion. What will the interest on $167 trillion be annually? At 4%, it would be $6.7 trillion per year. Do you think this is sustainable? The CBO doesn't.

In CBO’s projections, federal debt, measured in relation to the size of the economy, surpasses its historical peak in 2029. That large and growing debt has significant economic and financial consequences. Over time, it slows economic growth, drives up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, makes the nation’s fiscal position more vulnerable to an increase in interest rates, heightens the risk of a fiscal crisis, and increases the likelihood of other adverse outcomes.

What adverse outcomes?  They don't say, but either default on the national debt with or hyperinflation.  Probably including a bloody civil war.  Either way, the current system is unsustainable, and most people will lose everything.  When will this happen?  Certainly before 2055.  I last projected 2042, but maybe it could last a few more years.  So somewhere in the range of 2042 to 2054.

Update:  Correction, they do forecast GDP as follows:

2025 30,100
2035 43,900
2045 62,900
2055 88,400

So they are actually projecting debt held by the public to be $138 trillion, not $167 trillion in 2055.  But the warning remains the same - there will be increased likelihood of adverse outcomes.

All foreigners are out to screw us and it’s our job to screw them first

The quote was from John Connally in 1971. 

Trump is therefore not the first President to seek the controlled disintegration of the world economy by means of a devastating blow. Nor is he the first to purposely damage America’s allies to renew and prolong US hegemony. Nor the first who was prepared to hurt Wall Street in the short run in the process of strengthening US capital accumulation in the long term. Nixon had done all that half a century earlier.

Read: https://unherd.com/2025/04/will-liberation-day-transform-the-world/

Oleksandr Dubinsky

 This is a YouTube video of an interview with Oleksandr Dubinsky, who is a former Ukrainian Member of Parliament who was imprisoned for treason in November 2023.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7K8OSIant8 . It isn't clear how the video was done if he is in a Ukrainian prison.   You can watch it with the transcript on which makes it easier to understand.  This is worth watching.

Excerpt:

if we connect the dots it becomes clear that Ukraine is not a battleground between Russia and the West it is the front line in a global clash between left and right-wing ideas. ukraine has become the last stronghold of globalism and Zalinski is its figurehead in this struggle. there is no goal of securing Ukraine's victory - the only objective is to prolong the war. the idea is to entangle President Trump in this conflict to force him either to continue Biden's war or to pressure Ukraine into compromise thus giving his opponents ammunition to push for impeachment. this is a trap for Trump at the cost of Ukraine itself. zalinsky deliberately provoked confrontation with President Trump in order to sabotage any potential deals.

Things not to do in Mexico as a stupid American

 1. Go on a luxury all-inclusive $8,000 vacation to Cancun and charge it all to your American Express Platinum card.

2. While you are there, buy a $100,000 timeshare and also charge it to your Amex card.  This gives you a free vacation as a bonus.

3. When you get back home, you change your mind but instead of telling the company you want out of the timeshare contract, instead claim that someone stole your Amex card and challenge the charges totalling $117,000.

4. Go on the free vacation a month later.

5. The next year, go back to the SAME RESORT at a huge discount because you are now a member.

6. Brag about your not-so-little scam on Facebook.

7. The next year, go back to the SAME RESORT, without checking if there is a warrant for your arrest.  But this time, the police are waiting for you.  Get thrown in jail with no bail, pending felony fraud charges.

8.  Instead of hiring a Mexican attorney and making a deal, have your daughter complain about how you are being held hostage and tortured and how corrupt the Mexican legal system is and post it all over the internet. Also, mention that you are a US Navy veteran. Also, make a complaint to the US State Department, the governor of Michigan etc.  

9. Bonus points if you can get Trump to tweet about it.

https://nypost.com/2025/03/26/us-news/michigan-couple-paul-and-christy-akeo-held-in-mexican-maximum-security-prison-over-dispute-with-resort-daughter/

Update:  There is more to the story, of course.  The membership was for $1.3 million.  It was canceled because the timeshare company claimed they didn't abide by the agreement, and the $100,000 was just a payment.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TimeshareOwners/comments/1jaihqn/american_couple_arrested_in_cancun_airport_for/

Update 2:  There is much more more, and I don't care about all the drama. (And for the record, my facts above are mostly wrong.)  But I do want to note that the article says they do have an attorney, John Manly, who is a famous attorney who specializes in representing victims of sexual abuse.  However, they obviously need a Mexican attorney. 

Update 3/27/25:  The story hit CNN.  The couple claims the allegations against them are false, but they still don't have a Mexican attorney.  They want the US government to intervene. What a couple of losers, I hope they stay in prison the next 6 months.

Update 3/28/25:  They filed for Chapter 13 bankruptcy on 8/29/24.  It is unclear if the plan was approved.  Why are they going on vacation if they are in bankruptcy proceedings?

Update 4/5/25:  The Michigan couple is free and back in Michigan.  They made a deal to pay the disputed $116,000 to a charity for Mexican orphans.

Moral of the story?  Don't dispute credit card charges and then brag about it on Facebook.

The price of gold hits $3000 per ounce

 

See also: https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/04/gold-is-going-up-at-rate-of-25-per-month.html

About a year ago on 2/10/25, I posted that gold hit $2296.  The price of gold was $1,820 on 10/5/23, so it has increased 66% in under 18 months.  It doesn't show any signs of stopping, and it should hit $4000 within a year. 

Why does the government have to borrow money to run a deficit?

 

Source: https://www.mmted.org/smithfamily/  Episode 12

Doesn't this cause hyperinflation?  The counter argument is what about Japan.  (But Japan didn't do this, the Central Bank has government bonds to secure the Yen they created).

Could the Central Bank treat this as an interest-free loan (or at 0.25% interest)?  So from the bank's perspective, they would have an asset, which is the loan, and a liability, the Treasury general account.  From Treasury's perspective, they would have an asset, cash (which they would promptly spend), and an offsetting liability - the loan owed to the Central Bank.

How does a loan from the Central Bank differ from a government bond?  (Well, anyone could own a bond, but the Central Bank would be the only owner of the loan).  There isn't really any practical difference.

How would the loan (or government bond) ever be paid back?  This is the real question.  For the accounting transaction to work, it must be a real liability.  But a loan (or bond) that is never paid back isn't a real loan, it is a gift.

Interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

 Read: https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2002637/

I don't have time to fully read this right now but I think it is interesting.  He starts off by talking about the trend to have a single bathroom for both genders.

So, this split is motivated first of all by the departure from Christian values by the leadership of the Democratic party, in my view, by promoting without any limits the LGBTQ, whatever comes next, you know I mean one WC for any gender. I once found myself in Sweden where the OSCE was conducting a ministerial meeting and it was in a stadium specially arranged for the ministerial meeting, and I wanted to go out and I saw a WC sign, and I asked the guy who was accompanying me whether this was a gents or ladies. He said everybody. I don't want any of my friends to experience this themselves. And this is just of course a tiny manifestation of those divisions. But the Rust Belt America is of course not very much keen to embrace those values. 

When will the recession start?

 The DJIA had a high of 45,054 on Jan 31, 2025.  Today (March 13), it opened at 41,280, and it is dropping further.  So it is down approximately 10% from the high and will probably drop further.  How does this compare to the start of the Great Recession?

On Oct 9, 2007, the DJIA peaked at 14,164, which began a long decline which bottomed out on March 6, 2009 at 6,470, a drop of more than 50%.  The recession at that time officially began on December 1, 2007. (but that date wasn't declared until much later by the NBER).   So it is approximately a 2 month delay between the stock market peak and the start of a recession.

So the recession should begin on April 1, 2025, give or take a month.  (I previously predicted a recession starting Feb 1, 2025).

The Fed of course already has a script to follow, so we can predict with high confidence that there will be a rate cut of 0.75% on Tuesday, June 17, 2025 when there is a scheduled Federal Reserve OMC meeting. (The rate cut could be earlier, in May).  This is based on a 17-year cycle of an emergency rate cut of 0.75% on Jan 22, 2008, but delayed by 5 months.

I think Trump is intentionally causing a recession to force the Fed to cut rates.

The Ridiculous Political Puppet Show Part 2

 Read: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ridiculous-political-puppet-show-part-2

Who tweeted this?

House Democrats stand united for a four-week funding extension that stops harmful cuts, keeps government open to serve the people, and allows Congress to reach a bipartisan funding agreement. I'm ready to vote tomorrow or Friday to pass a four-week extension.

49 House Democrats posted the identical message.

If Democrats are all on a script and post the same thing it means they are not in control, someone else is giving the orders.

Ukrainian Peace Plan

1. Russia to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory that it occupies, including Crimea, although there is the possibility of a lease of Crimea (with Russian paying billions of dollars annually).

2. A UN peacekeeping force to occupy a demilitarised zone along the Ukrainian-Russian border.

3. Russian leaders and Russian troops to be subject to a war crime tribunal.

4. Ukraine to immediately join NATO, with nuclear weapons placed on its territory, controlled by Europe (not the US).

5. Russia to pay reparations for all losses Ukraine has suffered.

6. Russia to resign from the United Nations Security Council.

7. All Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians who evacuated to be returned to Ukraine.

See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

Is there any chance that Russia would agree to these terms?

Russian Peace Plan

 Read: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/russia-reparations-peace-details

This may be satire.

1. Ukraine to recognize Russian sovereignty over the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson, and Crimea and these will no longer be Ukrainian.

2. Ukraine to recognize as Russian protectorates the regions of Nikolaev and Odessa from which Ukrainian troops will be banned.  These regions will have the right to self-determination, so they could be independent or join Russia in the future.  Also Belarus will administer Chernihiv region (which includes Chernobyl).

3. Russia has the right to have monitoring missions along Ukraine's western border.

4. Ukraine to pay reparations.

5. The government of Ukraine must have a pro-Russian orientation.  Zelensky is to resign (and kept in a Russian prison pending trial), and new elections held.

6. The current leaders of Ukraine will be prosecuted for war crimes.

7. All Orthodox church parishes must come under the Moscow Patriarchate headed by Patriarch Tikhon.

8. Ukraine renounce the idea of ever joining NATO.

9. Russian recognized as an official language of Ukraine.

Do you think this is an acceptable roadmap to peace?  It seems like it has to be a joke, but the author seems to be serious.

Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme and how to fix it

 Read: https://www.birchgold.com/blog/news/social-security-warning/

Elon Musk said  “Social Security is the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time.”

The assurance that workers will receive benefits when they retire does not depend on the particular tax used to finance the benefits or on any “trust fund.” It depends solely on the expectation that future Congresses will honor promises made by earlier Congresses – what supporters call “a compact between the generations” and opponents call a Ponzi scheme.  It’s a Ponzi scheme that American workers (both citizens and non-citizens) are forced to participate in.

According to the managers of the Social Security Trust, their reserves will run out in 2035. They’ve been using those reserves to make up for the shortfall in revenue collection – for every dollar that comes in, more than a dollar goes out… For now.  Unless something changes, in 2035, benefits will drop by 17%.

My solution, which obviously won't happen:  

1. Abolish the Social Security Trust fund, which is a myth, and forgive the National Debt associated with it, which won't be repaid anyways.  Exorcise the ghosts of Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan and others who lead us into this suicide pact.  Formally recognize that Social Security is a welfare benefit (which can be cut) and not an entitlement.

2. Freeze all benefits at the current levels, and get rid of COLA (cost of living adjustments).  Anyone who retires in the future must accept the current 2025 benefit levels.

3. Eliminate Social Security taxes on any income below the current federal minimum wage (currently $7.25 per hour, or approximately $15,000).  It is a terribly unfair to have teenagers who make minimum wage pay into the system to subsidize wealthier retirees when the system won't be there for them.  This is akin to child abuse - it is brainwashing poor young people to support an unfair system.

4. Pay the cost of Social Security out of the general budget, similar to how Medicaid is paid for.

5. Work on a long-term plan, which will be a general pension fund managed at the state level.   Each person would declare a state citizenship and they would get California Social Security or whatever.  They could move benefits between states with a 5 year notice.

6.  Also, allow people to opt out of it and invest in a private plan instead.  This would require them to subsidize the old system even though they will never get benefits from it.

See also https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/10/social-security-musk-ponzi-scheme-benefits/

The February 2025 deficit was $308 Billion

The federal government incurred a deficit of $308 billion in February 2025, CBO estimates—$11 billion more than the deficit recorded last February. The federal budget deficit totaled $1.1 trillion [actually $1.147 trillion] in the first five months of fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $319 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues were $37 billion (or 2 percent) higher, and outlays were $356 billion (or 13 percent) higher.   https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61196/html

How much was net interest for the month?  YTD interest as of 2/28/25 is $402 billion, and it was $327 billion as of 1/31/25, so net interest for the month is $75 billion.

The Federal Reserve had a debt of $224 billion as of 2/26/25 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW) up from $221.1 billion as of 1/29/25, so it increased $2.9 billion for the month.

The Treasury General Account closing balance was $559.6 billion as of 2/28/25, down from $793 billion as of 1/31/25, a drop of $233.4 billion.  This nest egg will probably last until mid-June when it will need to be replenished.

Operation Mockingbird

 After Trump kicked Zelensky out of the Oval Office last Friday (Feb 28), European leaders thought it would be cute to post the same message on X.  The message:

Your dignity honours the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President @ZelenskyyUa. We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.

This identical message was posted by the following:

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen

President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola

European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis 

European Parliament member Manfred Weber

European Council President António Costa

The messages were all sent within 15 minutes of each other.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/european-leaders-flamed-creepy-pro-zelenskyy-posts-read-exactly-same

My guess is that the same person manages all of their social media accounts and didn't think about how odd this would look.

Democratic Senators or Puppets

 Why would these Senators make videos with the same script word for word?  Are they just really lazy or are these deepfakes or are they being controlled?  It is bizarre no matter what the explanation is, and these "distinguished" Senators have diminished themselves.  Here is the script:

The video opened with a short clip of Trump vowing to lower the cost of living for Americans beginning on the first day of his presidency. "Shit that ain't true, That's what you just saw.  Since day one of Donald Trump's presidency, prices are up, not down. Inflation is getting worse, not better. The prices of groceries, gas, housing, eggs, they're all getting more expensive. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has done nothing to lower costs for you.  Instead, he's pardoned violent criminals who beat police officers on January 6," the videos continued, cutting from the senators to show a clip from the protest at the Capitol.  "He's letting Elon Musk take a chainsaw to vital government programs. And then, even worse, giving him access to Americans' most sensitive data — Social Security numbers, tax returns, health care bills. Trump and Musk are firing thousands of essential workers and freezing funding for vital programs.  Why are they doing this? Trump, Musk, DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] are taking these vital services away from you for one reason only: so they can give tax breaks to their billionaires' club, they added. Billionaires win; families lose. And that is the truth.

And here are the puppets who are being told what to say:

Senators Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)
Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.),
Cory Booker (D-N.J.),
Dick Durbin (Ill.),
Chris Coons (Del.),
Tammy Baldwin (Wis.),
Tammy Duckworth (Ill.),
Tim Kaine (Va.),
Chris Van Hollen (Md.),
Gary Peters (Mich.),
Mazie Hirono (Hawaii),
Peter Welch (Vt.),
Ben Ray Luján (N.M.),
Martin Heinrich (N.M.),
Jeff Merkley (Ore.),
Mark Kelly (Ariz.), 
Brian Schatz (Hawaii),
Andy Kim (N.J.),
Alex Padilla (Calif.),
Mark Warner (Va.),
Richard Blumenthal (Conn.),
Angela Alsobrooks (Md.),
Ed Markey (Mass.),
Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.),
and Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.).

Source: https://www.theblaze.com/news/25-dem-senators-parrot-same-script-in-videos-slamming-trump-musk

https://x.com/InsiderWire/status/1896965208830308778

The Democrats want to shut down the government on March 15

Say Democrats vote against a clean spending bill in the House and allow a shutdown to occur: Musk might have dismissed tens of thousands of federal workers, but Uncle Sam still employs more than 2 million more who would be furloughed without pay.  Amid the finger-pointing, Republicans would call vote after vote to reopen government agencies — casting Democrats as the ones who are repeatedly choosing to keep agencies shut and employees home without paychecks. 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/03/04/house-democrats-shutdown-doge-00205584

Trump, the evil genius, is playing 10-D chess.  The Democrats don't like spending cuts, so in protest they shut the whole thing down, showing how worthless most bureaucrats are.  They aren't going to win this, because they need the government open more than the Republicans do.  Its like a union going on strike - can they outlast management who now doesn't have to pay the wages of the strikers?    

And then Trump is intentionally causing a recession with cutting government spending and imposing tariffs.  This will force the Fed to cut rates, which is what Trump wants.  

How Janet Yellen intentionally set a $9 trillion trap for Scott Bessent

 There are $9.2 trillion of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds expiring that must be refinanced in 2025.  Until 2021, the long term interest rates were under 2%.  Yellen could have sold more bonds at the long end of the curve, but she choose to sell them short-term.  Now this must all be refinanced at 4.25% (or higher) interest.

Read: https://confoundedinterest.net/2025/03/02/yellens-folly-treasury-secretary-bessent-faces-refinancing-of-9-trillion-in-treasury-debt-in-2025-thanks-biden-pelosi-schumer/

Unleash the warrior within

 Read: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14452983/trump-fuels-rumors-white-house-takedown-zelensky-promoting-elaborate-theory.html

Amid speculation that President Trump and JD Vance planned an Oval Office ambush of Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump has now posted an analysis by a martial arts instructor who called it a 'setup.' Trump, who played a round of golf at his West Palm Beach course Sunday, posted a write-up by the head of an Arizona karate dojo who took on the idea that the angry White House meeting went off the rails by accident – instead calling it 'brilliant strategy.' The article acknowledged segments of public revulsion of what happened – but speculated that Trump and Vance maneuvered to outflank Zelensky during the televised smack-down, comparing the president to a 'master chess player.' 'So what you witnessed tonight was a setup. Trump and JD Vance knew that the only way to achieve peace was to strategically align, at least on the surface, with Russia. Why? Because Russia would never sign a peace treaty if Ukraine were admitted into NATO,' wrote Michael McCune in his posting on his Facebook group page.  The page links him with the dojo where he is an instructor, with the tag 'Karate-Do way of life' and the slogan 'unleash the warrior within.'  Trump snipped the text below the 'setup' line, instead including an image of the bottom of his post on his Truth Social site without the full link, identifying McCune only by his name without any other identifying information. However the full post is available online. 'Now, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to back down and accept Trump's terms. But here’s the genius part—Trump is actually protecting Ukraine without dragging the U.S. into war,' it said. The post says the rare earth minerals deal negotiated by both sides – which was completed but left unsigned after the blowup – 'ensures that Americans will be involved in Ukraine’s mining industry. This prevents Russia from launching an invasion, because attacking Ukraine would mean endangering American lives—something that would force the U.S. to respond.' 'Trump played both sides like a master chess player. In the end, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to concede, because without U.S. support, Ukraine cannot win a prolonged war against Russia. And once U.S. companies have mining operations in Ukraine, Putin will be unable to attack without triggering massive international consequences. 'Don’t underestimate Donald Trump. In this game of chess, he’s 10 moves ahead of everyone,' he concluded.

Comment:  Zelensky is an idiot.  All he can say is: "Putin bad, Ukraine is a victim, give me money in unlimited amounts, forever".  He needs to trust Trump, who actually has a plan that Zelensky can't understand.