I've mentioned before that there seems to be a 44 or 48 year cycle, with Trump being a repeat of Nixon and Harding. And now we have the incompetent Biden, who reminds us of Jimmy Carter and Herbert Hoover. (I am skipping over Ford and Coolidge).
So just for fun, let's look at events 44 years ago, and then 48 years before that. (I am not trying to say that there will be a stock market crash this fall or the start of another Great Depression, but I am looking for other commonalities).
July 2021 - Inflation is back like it hasn't been since the 1970s, with the CPI (consumer price index up 5.4% over the last year). Gas prices are soaring (the energy index is up 24.5% over the past year). New York was heavily flooded by Tropical Storm Elsa. The Covid pandemic continues.
July 1977 - The CPI for July 1977 was 0.49% for an annualized rate of 6.83%. The New York City blackout of July 13, 1977 lasts for 25 hours, resulting in looting and disorder. There was a fake swine flu pandemic in 1976.
July 1929 - Nothing comparable happened. The inflation rate for 1929 was 0.0%. There was an influenza epidemic in 1928-1929 which killed an estimated 50,000 people in the United States over what would be expected (excess mortality).
Ok, so much for that theory. But I wonder, did inflation ever soar during the roaring 1920s?
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Update: Politico sees a comparison with FDR. So look at July 1933.
In a city of interest groups, “the descendants [of FDR's cabinet],” as they refer to themselves in frequent press releases and op-eds, are among the more unusual. They are determined to polish the legacy of America’s 32nd president by pushing the 46th to embrace a legislative agenda as transformational as the New Deal. They want Joe Biden to embrace the idea of an “activist” government.
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