First read the announcement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250618a.htm
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.
For the record, I predicted that they would cut rates by 0.75% today and I was wrong. The Fed of course already has a script to follow, so we can predict with high confidence that there will be a rate cut of 0.75% on Tuesday, June 17, 2025 when there is a scheduled Federal Reserve OMC meeting. (https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2025/03/when-will-recession-start.html)
The Federal Reserve was following a script from September 2022 to December 2024 where it matched its actions almost exactly from 17 years earlier in 2005 to 2007. But suddenly, in January 2025, the pattern broke. I think we are just in a holding pattern, and at any moment, the pattern will resume. It will resume with a 0.75% rate cut. Maybe I am wrong (I am wrong most of the time), but I think that we will still see an economic disaster occur again, following the 17 year + pattern.
When will this occur? For fun, I will guess and put out a date, which almost certainly will be wrong. How about September 22, 2025, which just happens to be during Rosh Hashanah on Elul 29. (For fun, do a search on this blog for Elul 29 - it is a very inauspicious date.) This would be exactly 17 years and 8 months after the events of January 22, 2008 (when the Federal Reserve did an emergency rate cut of 0.75%).
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Update: It just so happens that there is a FOMC meeting on Sept 16-17, 2025. So I revise my date to September 17, 2025.
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