I just got through calling the stock market high on July 23. The problem is that the Fed keeps pumping and there is a correlation between the new money and the stock market. The correlation was 4.9 (each billion dollars of new money adds 4.9 points to the Dow), but it has since fallen to 4.7. Since the Fed creates $85 billion of new money each month, that means the Dow should rise by about 400 per month, to about 17,500 by year end.
We will see shortly. Probably the correlation will continue, but at a lower and lower amount, just like M2 velocity keeps dropping.
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Update: The total ratio between the Dow and Monetary Base is about 4.7, but the marginal change is about 2.7. If this continues, then the Dow should rise by about 230 per month, to about 16,750 by year end, and the total ratio should drop to about 4.5.
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