This is not like 1987

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-23/guest-post-1987-redux

Nope.

The recession will soon begin

Every time new sales reach a new peak and decline, it indicates a recession has begun or will soon begin.

2000-06-01  68506

2008-04-01  68973

2013-06-01  69856

Every time SP 500 reaches a new peak, a recession will soon begin.

2000-03-24  1527.46

2007-10-09  1565.15

2013-08-02  1709.67

But ... this time is different, right?

Baker Street

Most Liveable Cities

If you could live anywhere you wanted to in the world, where would you move?  Here is one list of the most livable cities:

1. Vienna
2. Zurich
3. Auckland
4. Munich
5. Vancouver
6. Dusseldorf
7. Frankfurt
8. Geneva
9. Copenhagen
10. Bern, Switzerland
11. Sydney
12. Amsterdam
13. Wellington
14. Ottawa
15. Toronto
16. Berlin
17. Hamburg
18. Melbourne
19. Luxembourg
20. Stockholm
21. Perth 
22. Brussels
23. Montreal
24. Nurnberg
25. Singapore

Source: Mercer

The top US cities are Honolulu (28), San Francisco (29), Boston (35), Chicago (42), Washington (43), New York (44), Seattle (44 tied), Pittsburgh (49).

Copper vs SP

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-emerging-market-final-tweet-2013-8

Dr. Copper is predicting that the stock market should drop about 25%.  The SP is at 1644, so it may drop to 1233.  The DJIA is at 14900 and may drop to 11,175.

See also http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2013/08/one-of-these-is-not-like-other.html

Plague of wild pigs

Giant Feral Pig from Australia

Oklahoma is battling a wild pig problem that has spread across the United States. The pigs, evolved from introduced wild boars or from escaped domestic stock, are prevalent in 36 states and have been sighted in 47 states, according to authorities who track their populations.

They are vicious critters that typically grow to 200 pounds, can run 30 miles per hour, jump three feet high and climb out of traps with walls up to six feet high, experts say.

"They are the ultimate survivors," said John Mayer, manager of the environmental science group at the Savannah River National Laboratory in Aiken, South Carolina. "They can live pretty much anywhere, eat pretty much anything, they don't have enough predators and they reproduce faster than any other mammal."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/24/usa-pigs-idUSL2N0GO01Q20130824

See also The Biggest Threat to the Planet

Todo me Gusta de Ti

Eres mi alma
Eres mi cielo
Eres mi vida
Mi amor te quiero

Sin ti mi vida no tendria sueños
Ven dame un beso
que tanto quiero

Yo quiero sentirte
Yo quiero decirte
Mi amor te quiero mas,
te amo de verdad

Yo quiero sentirte
Yo quiero decirte
En esta vida mi amor
algra mi corazon
Todo me gusta de ti

Cielo azul son tus lindos ojos
Media luna es tu linda boca
Como holas es tu lindo cuerpo
Todo me gusta de ti

Cielo azul son tus lindos ojos
Media luna es tu linda boca
Como holas es tu lindo cuerpo
Todo me gusta de ti

Obamacare will cause a financial collapse

Cumbia de la Cobra

Amor de mis amores

No te asombres si te digo lo que fuiste 
un ingrato con mi pobre corazon 
porque el fuego de tus lindos ojos negros 
alumbraron el camino de otro amor 
y pensar que te adoraba tiernamente 
que a tu lado como nunca me senti 
y por esas cosas raras de la vida 
sin el beso de tu boca yo me vi. 

Amor de mis amores amor mio 
que me hiciste que no puedo soportarme 
sin poderte contemplar 
ya que pagaste mal a mi cariño tan sincero 
lo que conseguira que no te nombre nunca mas 
amor de mis amores si dejaste de quererme 
no hay cuidado que la gente de esto no se enterara 
que gano con decir que un hombre cambio mi suerte 
se burlaran de mi que nadie sepa mi sufrir 

No te asombres si te digo lo que fuiste 
un ingrato con mi pobre corazon 
porque el fuego de tus lindos ojos negros 
alumbraron el camino de otro amor 
y pensar que te adoraba tiernamente 
que a tu lado como nunca me senti 
y por esas cosas raras de la vida 
sin el beso de tu boca yo me vi 
Amor de mis amores amor mio 
que me hiciste que no puedo soportarme 
sin poderte contemplar 
ya que pagaste mal a mi cariño tan sincero 
lo que conseguira que no te nombre nunca mas 

(morire de amor sin que nadie sepa mi sufrir) 

Amor de mis amores si dejaste de quererme 
no hay cuidado que la gente de esto no se enterara 
que gano con decir que un hombre cambio mi suerte 
se burlaran de mi que nadie sepa mi sufrir

Conga Y Timbal

Las Mujeres No Se Acaban

Las mujeres no se acaban

Muchacho no tengas pena
Si tu chica se te va
Hay mujeres que son buenas
Hay mujeres que envenenan
No llores mas

=====================

Women are not just

Boy, do not be shy
If your girl is going
There are women who are good
There are women who poison
Do not cry more

====================
The literal translation doesn't make sense.  I think it means "Women are not the end".  So it's saying, "if your woman dumps you, don't cry, just find another one."

Izquierda .. Derecha

Interest Rates

If the 10-year Treasury rises to 4%, what will happen?  The bond market will collapse, and real estate will collapse.  But it's unclear what will happen to stocks.  The money has to go somewhere and stocks (along with gold) may benefit.

So it may be a rolling collapse.  First, the stock market drops.  Then bonds and real estate drop.  Then the money goes back into stocks.  Then interest rates rise again, and bonds drop further. Then the stock market collapses.  I'm not smart enough to figure it out.  But the bond market collapse will cause a lot of people to panic over huge losses in what they thought were very safe investments.

But rising interest rates doesn't mean a recession will occur.  If interest rates rise sharply, and then drop, that is when a recession is about to start.

Arginine

The Hindenburg Omen

With the latest market rally, the Omens are flaring up again.  There have been 5 Omens triggered out of the past 8 trading sessions (your data may vary - we're using the same sources we've always used for historical data).  That's actually the closest-grouped cluster since early November 2007.

It's extremely rare to see as many Omens occurring together as we've seen over the past 50 days.  The last time was prior to the bear market in 2007.  The time before that was prior to the bear market in 2000.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/hindenburg-omen-warns-of-stock-market-crash-2013-8

What happened in November 2007?  The stock market reached a high on October 11, 2007 before dropping more than 50% over the next year and a half.

What does the Hindenburg Omen predict? That there is a 77% chance that the stock market will drop by at least 5% in the next 40 days. I wouldn't bet against it.  A 5% drop from the high would mean the Dow would drop to 14,875 by September 30.

Martin Armstrong, who predicted the stock market high within a few days (he predicted it would be on August 7, and it was actually on August 2), thinks that this is just a minor correction and that the big event will occur on October 1, 2015.

I predict (warning, my accuracy rate is pretty close to zero), that the Dow will bottom out next spring at about 14,000 (about a 10% drop from the high), and then rise to above 19,000 before the big crash occurs in the fall of 2015.

I'm through with love

My Girl's Cat

Freak Elevator Accidents

Elevator companies claim that elevators are the safest form of transportation.  I doubt that.  Here are a few horrifying elevator stories:

• May 2013 - NYC. Inunion Tursunov was trapped in an elevator in the Brooklyn Navy Yard and tried to escape but fell to his death.
• March 2012 - NYC.  An elevator mechanic was electrocuted in an elevator, killing him.
• December 2011 - NYC.  Suzanne Hart, an advertising executive, was stepping into an elevator when it suddenly shot upward, pinning her between the wall and the elevator and killing her.
• December 2010 - NYC.  A woman in a Brooklyn hospital got her leg stuck between the elevator and the wall, mangling it from mid-thigh to her foot. 
• November 2009 - NYC. Jerry Fuchs, a drummer, was stuck in an elevator in Brooklyn and tried to escape, but fell to his death down the elevator shaft.
• October 1999 - NYC.  Nicholas White was trapped in an elevator for 41 hours, traumatizing him, and dramatically changing his life. He was fired from his job and became homeless.
• January 1995 - NYC. James Chenault was stuck in an elevator with others.  He was helping other occupants escape when the elevator suddenly shot upwards, beheading him.

This is far from a complete list. I focused on stories from NYC because there are so many elevators there. There are many new skyscrapers being built, but I think more focus needs to be placed on elevator technology.

Architects forgot to put any elevators in a skyscraper under construction in Spain.

Ender's Game

Stop the world, I want to get off

Oblivion is a movie, starring Tom Cruise and Morgan Freeman, about humanity fleeing to Titan, a moon of Saturn.


Elysium is a movie, starring Matt Damon and Jodie Foster, about humanity fleeing to a torus-shaped space station.

Head and Shoulders

Date          Close
===========  ===========
Aug 7, 2013  15,470.67 Right Valley (E)
Aug 6, 2013  15,518.74
Aug 5, 2013  15,612.13
Aug 2, 2013  15,658.36 Head (D)
Aug 1, 2013  15,628.02 
Jul 31, 2013 15,499.54 Left Valley (C)
Jul 30, 2013 15,520.59
Jul 29, 2013 15,521.97 
Jul 26, 2013 15,558.83
Jul 25, 2013 15,555.61 
Jul 24, 2013 15,542.24 
Jul 23, 2013 15,567.74 Left Shoulder (B)
Jul 22, 2013 15,545.55
Jul 19, 2013 15,543.74 
Jul 18, 2013 15,548.54 
Jul 17, 2013 15,470.52 
Jul 16, 2013 15,451.85 Low after previous high (A)
Jul 15, 2013 15,484.26 Previous High
Jul 12, 2013 15,464.30

The head-and-shoulders pattern is almost complete.  All we need is the Right Shoulder and then a low below the Right Valley.

Update: Modified Aug 7.

The Bomb

Atomic bomb mushroom clouds over Hiroshima (left) and Nagasaki (right) on August 6 and August 9, 1945.

The bombings killed about 250,000 Japanese people.  However, they may have saved millions of lives by ending the war sooner.  Some people argue that they were war crimes or crimes against humanity.

The firebombing of Tokyo killed more people. "The Operation Meetinghouse firebombing of Tokyo on the night of 9/10 March 1945 was the single deadliest air raid of World War II; greater than Dresden, Hiroshima, or Nagasaki as single events."  So if you are going to condemn the nuclear bombings, you have to condemn firebombing as well, which targeted civilians.

See also http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/08/no_apologies_for_the_bomb.html

Back to the future

Source http://io9.com/the-great-1952-space-program-453511252

The illustration, from the 1950s, shows a team of 50 men exploring the crater Harpalus on the moon.

Shanghai Tower tops out

Shanghai Tower is 632 m (2073 ft) tall, and is the second-tallest building in the world. It will be finished in 2014.  The list of the tallest buildings in the world now stands as follow:

1. Burj Khalifa, Dubai, 828m (2010) 
2. Shanghai Tower, 632m (2014).
3. Abraj Al Bait, Mekka (Mecca Royal Hotel Clock Tower), 601m (2011) 
4. One World Trade Center, New York, 541m (2013) 
5. Taipei 101, Taipei, 509m (2004) 
6. Shanghai World Financial Center, 492m (2008) 
7. International Commerce Center, Hongkong, 484m (2010) 
8. Petronas Towers, Kuala Lumpur, 452m (1998) 
9. Greenland Financial Center (aka Zifeng Tower), Nanjing, 450m (2010) 
10. Willis Tower (Sears Tower), Chicago, 442m (1974) 
11. Kingkey 100, Shenzhen, 442m (2011) 

There are only 5 buildings in the world that are 500m (1640 ft) or taller, but that will change soon.

The Lotte World Tower in Seoul (556m) should be completed in 2015.

How high will it go?

Update 8/12:  There is support about 15200.

Mauldin says 50% drawdown is possible

John Mauldin

While it may be impossible to accurately predict when this policy-driven market will break, history suggests it would be very reasonable for the secular bear to eventually bottom at a P/E multiple between 5x and 10x, opening up one of the rare wealth-creation opportunities to deploy capital at truly cheap prices. Some of these technical details are rather dry, but I hope you'll focus on the main idea: We are not talking about the potential for a modest 20% to 30% drawdown in the S&P 500. If history is any indication, we are talking about the potential for a 50%+ peak-to-trough drawdown and ten-year average annual returns as bad as -4.4%, according to the chart above from Cliff Asness at AQR. Such a result would fall in line with somewhat similar deleveraging periods such as the United States experienced in the 1930s and Japan has experienced since 1989.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-are-expensive-and-might-crash-2013-8

===================
Note:  The Dow bottomed out on Nov. 9, 2009 at 6507.04.  A 50% drop from today would still be at a higher level than that.

You left me just when I needed you most

The end is nigh

Date          Close
===========  ===========
Aug 1, 2013  15,628.02 Head (D)
Jul 31, 2013 15,499.54 Left Valley (C)
Jul 30, 2013 15,520.59
Jul 29, 2013 15,521.97 
Jul 26, 2013 15,558.83
Jul 25, 2013 15,555.61 
Jul 24, 2013 15,542.24 
Jul 23, 2013 15,567.74 Left Shoulder (B)
Jul 22, 2013 15,545.55
Jul 19, 2013 15,543.74 
Jul 18, 2013 15,548.54 
Jul 17, 2013 15,470.52 
Jul 16, 2013 15,451.85 Low after previous high (A)
Jul 15, 2013 15,484.26 Previous High
Jul 12, 2013 15,464.30

The DJIA just closed at an all-time high yesterday, beating the previous high set on July 23.  I think this is the top.  To repeat: "If this is not the top, then it is getting close."

How will we know when a top has been reached? When a "head-and-shoulders" pattern emerges.  I think we are at the head, we just need to see the other shoulder.

What would this look like? After the potential head is identified, then prices will drop to near the left valley and then rise again to a peak that is less than the head, and then fall below the neckline (the line between the left valley and the right valley).  So there are 7 distinct points to identify.




"The bull market without a 20% correction has lasted 1,598 days, making it the 5th longest bull market in history. In the absence of accelerating earnings, these conditions suggest that a “pause” or even a “correction” could be “in the cards” sometime soon."
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/dow-jones-industrial-average-approaches-longterm-resistance-cm262374

See also: http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2013/07/did-djia-top-out-on-july-23.html

=========================================
Update: And another record high. The close on August 2, 2013 is 15658.36, up 30.34 since yesterday.  It will keep going up forever. Or not.

And this is only the 6th longest bull market, not the 5th.  Longer ones were:
1990 to 2000 (9 years)
1921 to 1929 (8 years)
1949 to 1956 (7 years)
2002 to 2007 (5 years)
1982 to 1987 (5 years)

One of these is not like the other

Source:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-02/us-factory-orders-miss-again-biggest-4-month-drop-year

America's Engineering Hubs

These are the most innovative cities, based on the number of engineers per thousand people.



Source: http://www.newgeography.com/content/003853-americas-engineering-hubs-the-cities-with-the-greatest-capacity-for-innovation

Lord Monckton says the dollar is doomed

The Right Honourable
The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley

"I make no apology for repeating my warning that, thanks to the dismal Obama administration, Uncle Sam is bankrupt. Serious financial commentators are now predicting riots in the streets and even, perhaps, outright economic collapse.  The U.S. dollar, the world’s reserve currency for almost half a century, is its reserve currency no more. Each dollar bill the administration prints is just as much a forgery as that bogus Hawaiian birth certificate."

Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2013/07/the-dollar-collapse-not-whether-but-when/