https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51908-2016_Outlook_Update_OneCol.pdf
This is worth a perusal. In my opinion, the deficit can be pretty much ignored until it reaches $800 billion per year. According to this document, that will happen in 2021, when the deficit hits $806 billion. It starts increasing rapidly after that.
Of course, this assumes that no recession will ever happen again. If a recession hits later this year or next like I expect, then the deficit will start soaring sooner than that.
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