Tuesday, August 13, 2019

2117: a tale of two century bonds

A century bond matures in 100 years.  In June 2017, Argentina sold $2.75 billion of 100-year bonds, maturing in 2117, with a yield of 7.9%.


In September 2017, Austria sold 3.5 billion euros of 100-year bonds, maturing in 2117 with a yield of 2.1%.


Both of these charts have downward-sloping lines, but the Argentina chart measures par, whereas the Austria chart measures yield.  So in otherwords, the Austria chart should be inverted.

Which would you rather buy?  The Argentina bonds are certain to default within 20 years.  The Austria bonds are extremely overpriced, selling at something like 186% of par.  So even if  1) the Austria state survives for 100 years, and 2) the Euro survives for 100 years, and 3) the inflation rate of the Euro remains below 1% for the next 100 years, then you are guaranteed to lose 86% of your investment.

Both are horrible investments.

Update:  Here is a chart showing the par value of an Austrian 100-year bond.  It is going up just as fast as the Argentinian bond is going down.


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