Crisis in 2047

I decided to do a new projection, and this one, showing a breaking point in 2047, is considerably worse than the prior one, which showed that the system could survive until 2068.

Here are my assumptions:
1. The primary source comes from the CBO 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook.
2. The numbers for GDP comes from the Social Security projection.  However, I assume that there is a recession every 11 years.  I assume that this will cause the nominal GDP to remain the same for the year.  I assume recessions will occur in 2021, 2032, and 2043.
3. Revenue numbers will fluctuate with GDP.
4. Social Security and Medicate projections are given as a percent of GDP, but I don't think they will actually drop.  So I use the actual projections from the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.
5. I assume that interest will never exceed 2.6% of the prior year public debt.

				Other	Other			Total		Debt		Debt %
Year	Revenues	SS	Medicare	Health	Mand	Discret	Interest	Outlays	Deficit	Public	GDP	of GDP
2019	3,511	1,058	801	344	559	1,354	382	4,497	-986	16,737	21,485	77.9%
2020	3,761	1,126	901	360	586	1,396	428	4,797	-1,036	17,773	22,523	78.9%
2021	3,819	1,188	928	362	565	1,379	452	4,873	-1,054	18,827	22,600	83.3%
2022	4,012	1,265	1,004	378	566	1,416	489	5,125	-1,113	19,939	23,600	84.5%
2023	4,248	1,348	1,083	395	593	1,457	518	5,420	-1,171	21,110	24,700	85.5%
2024	4,489	1,438	1,169	413	619	1,496	549	5,728	-1,239	22,350	25,800	86.6%
2025	4,725	1,533	1,259	432	648	1,539	581	6,059	-1,334	23,683	27,000	87.7%
2026	4,963	1,634	1,354	451	677	1,579	616	6,400	-1,437	25,120	28,200	89.1%
2027	5,204	1,742	1,452	470	706	1,617	653	6,751	-1,547	26,667	29,400	90.7%
2028	5,465	1,857	1,591	491	737	1,658	693	7,163	-1,699	28,365	30,700	92.4%
2029	5,728	1,973	1,703	512	768	1,696	737	7,548	-1,820	30,185	32,000	94.3%
2030	6,012	2,093	1,818	568	768	1,737	785	7,953	-1,941	32,126	33,400	96.2%
2031	6,299	2,218	1,936	592	766	1,775	835	8,330	-2,032	34,158	34,800	98.2%
2032	6,352	2,349	2,058	593	768	1,745	888	8,595	-2,243	36,401	34,900	104.3%
2033	6,661	2,484	2,183	619	801	1,820	946	9,071	-2,410	38,810	36,400	106.6%
2034	6,992	2,622	2,313	646	836	1,900	1,009	9,571	-2,579	41,389	38,000	108.9%
2035	7,326	2,764	2,447	673	871	1,980	1,076	10,081	-2,755	44,144	39,600	111.5%
2036	7,682	2,911	2,585	702	909	2,065	1,148	10,618	-2,936	47,080	41,300	114.0%
2037	8,041	3,067	2,723	731	946	2,150	1,224	11,165	-3,124	50,204	43,000	116.8%
2038	8,441	3,230	2,860	763	988	2,245	1,305	11,747	-3,306	53,510	44,900	119.2%
2039	8,845	3,399	2,999	796	1,030	2,340	1,391	12,342	-3,497	57,007	46,800	121.8%
2040	9,272	3,575	3,142	878	1,025	2,440	1,482	12,963	-3,691	60,698	48,800	124.4%
2041	9,671	3,757	3,288	916	1,069	2,545	1,578	13,611	-3,940	64,638	50,900	127.0%
2042	10,089	3,946	3,436	956	1,115	2,655	1,681	14,285	-4,196	68,834	53,100	129.6%
2043	10,108	4,146	3,591	958	1,117	2,660	1,790	14,706	-4,598	73,432	53,200	138.0%
2044	10,545	4,357	3,753	999	1,166	2,775	1,909	15,436	-4,891	78,322	55,500	141.1%
2045	11,020	4,581	3,927	1,044	1,218	2,900	2,036	16,222	-5,202	83,524	58,000	144.0%
2046	11,495	4,819	4,108	1,089	1,271	3,025	2,172	17,034	-5,539	89,062	60,500	147.2%
2047	12,008	5,073	4,295	1,138	1,327	3,160	2,316	17,900	-5,892	94,954	63,200	150.2%
2048	12,540	5,345	4,488	1,188	1,386	3,300	2,469	18,809	-6,269	101,223	66,000	153.4%
2049	13,091	5,632	4,754	1,240	1,447	3,445	2,632	19,826	-6,735	107,958	68,900	156.7%
2050	13,661	5,939	5,033	1,294	1,510	3,595	2,807	20,895	-7,234	115,191	71,900	160.2%

I'm not saying that this is necessarily more accurate that the previous one, or that either are accurate.  They both are possible forecasts of the future.  I think this shows that interest is not necessarily a problem as the long-term outlook for interest rates is decreasing.

The problem is the entitlement spending, which is Social Security, Medicare, Other Health, and Other Mandatory Spending.  Other Health is defined as "Medicaid, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, as well as outlays to subsidize health insurance purchased through the marketplaces established under the Affordable Care Act and related spending" (source CBO).

This shows that Debt Held by the Public will first reach $50 trillion by 2037.  This number is slightly more than $16 trillion now.  So it will triple in the next 18 years.  (The previous forecast showed it reaching $50 trillion by 2040).  I also show it reaching $100 trillion in 2048, whereas the previous forecast showed it reaching $100 trillion in 2053.

Update (2/8/20):  The next time I redo this, I think it should take into account non-budgetary items that go into the public debt, which are mostly student loans, and the Fed-owned notes and bonds which are longer than 1 year should be subtracted.