Crisis in 2068

Here is my latest projection from these sources:
1. Updated Budget Projections: 2019 to 2029
2. CBO Long Term Budget Projections
3. CBO's 2018 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information

I also use these assumptions:
1. GDP  from 2030 on comes from the CBO social security data above.
2. Social Security outlays from 2030 on comes from the CBO social security data above.  I don't make any adjustment to lower the outlays because the trust fund would run out in 2032.
3. I assume that revenue will never exceed 19.0% of GDP because higher taxes would be unpopular.  According to the CBO, taxes will increase to 19.6% of GDP.  This affects data from 2041 on.
4. I assume that health care expenditures will never exceed 8.5% of GDP.  The CBO sees these costs increase to 8.9% of GDP.  This affects data from about 2045 on.  For comparison, this cost in 2019 will be about 5.2% of GDP.  I assume that something will be done by 2045 to lower the increase in health costs.
5. I assume that interest costs will never exceed 3.2% of the prior years Debt Held by the Public.  This affects data from 2023 on. This is significantly less than what CBO projects.  For example during the years 2030-2039, they project an average of 3.6% of GDP for net interest, whereas I project an average of 2.9% of GDP.  I assume that the Fed has some power to lower the interest rates.
6. These assumptions lower the outlays.  CBO projects that outlays will average 27.5% of GDP from 2040-2049, whereas I have the average outlays at 24.9% of GDP during that period.  The net effect is that this projection is significantly more positive than CBO projects.

So here is the data.

								Memo	Memo	Memo
				Debt		Debt %		Net	SS	Health
Year	Revenues	Outlays	Deficit	Public	GDP	of GDP		Interest	Outlays	Outlays
2018	3,329	4,108	-779	15,751	20,236	77.8%		325	982
2019	3,511	4,407	-896	16,621	21,252	78.2%		382	1,039	1,105
2020	3,681	4,573	-892	17,576	22,120	79.5%		455	1,102	1,150
2021	3,834	4,796	-962	18,589	22,939	81.0%		517	1,171	1,239
2022	4,004	5,121	-1,117	19,748	23,778	83.1%		578	1,245	1,332
2023	4,200	5,321	-1,121	20,910	24,672	84.8%		632	1,323	1,431
2024	4,439	5,510	-1,071	22,021	25,642	85.9%		669	1,403	1,539
2025	4,637	5,826	-1,189	23,253	26,656	87.2%		705	1,487	1,626
2026	4,946	6,125	-1,179	24,476	27,667	88.5%		744	1,574	1,715
2027	5,244	6,406	-1,162	25,684	28,738	89.4%		783	1,664	1,810
2028	5,437	6,836	-1,399	27,116	29,862	90.8%		822	1,759	1,911
2029	5,664	6,973	-1,309	28,455	31,006	91.8%		868	1,856	2,015
2030	5,966	7,408	-1,442	29,897	32,600	91.7%		911	1,998	2,152
2031	6,204	7,757	-1,554	31,451	33,900	92.8%		957	2,088	2,271
2032	6,495	8,137	-1,641	33,092	35,300	93.7%		1,006	2,189	2,400
2033	6,771	8,496	-1,725	34,818	36,600	95.1%		1,059	2,277	2,525
2034	7,087	8,905	-1,819	36,636	38,100	96.2%		1,114	2,381	2,667
2035	7,366	9,326	-1,960	38,596	39,600	97.5%		1,172	2,491	2,812
2036	7,704	9,759	-2,055	40,651	41,200	98.7%		1,235	2,591	2,966
2037	8,046	10,221	-2,174	42,825	42,800	100.1%		1,301	2,714	3,124
2038	8,411	10,693	-2,282	45,108	44,500	101.4%		1,370	2,826	3,293
2039	8,732	11,177	-2,446	47,553	46,200	102.9%		1,443	2,943	3,465
2040	9,139	11,657	-2,518	50,071	48,100	104.1%		1,522	3,064	3,656
2041	9,500	12,187	-2,687	52,758	50,000	105.5%		1,602	3,185	3,850
2042	9,880	12,748	-2,868	55,626	52,000	107.0%		1,688	3,312	4,056
2043	10,260	13,314	-3,054	58,681	54,000	108.7%		1,780	3,434	4,266
2044	10,678	13,950	-3,272	61,952	56,200	110.2%		1,878	3,586	4,496
2045	11,096	14,579	-3,483	65,435	58,400	112.0%		1,982	3,720	4,730
2046	11,533	15,223	-3,690	69,126	60,700	113.9%		2,094	3,842	4,977
2047	11,989	15,936	-3,947	73,073	63,100	115.8%		2,212	4,007	5,237
2048	12,464	16,658	-4,194	77,267	65,600	117.8%		2,338	4,152	5,510
2049	12,996	17,466	-4,470	81,738	68,400	119.5%		2,473	4,323	5,814
2050	13,566	18,260	-4,694	86,431	71,400	121.1%		2,616	4,505	6,069
2051	14,117	19,015	-4,898	91,330	74,300	122.9%		2,766	4,659	6,316
2052	14,706	19,858	-5,152	96,482	77,400	124.7%		2,923	4,861	6,579
2053	15,295	20,676	-5,381	101,863	80,500	126.5%		3,087	5,031	6,843
2054	15,941	21,601	-5,660	107,523	83,900	128.2%		3,260	5,252	7,132
2055	16,587	22,507	-5,920	113,443	87,300	129.9%		3,441	5,448	7,421
2056	17,271	23,473	-6,202	119,646	90,900	131.6%		3,630	5,663	7,727
2057	17,993	24,493	-6,500	126,145	94,700	133.2%		3,829	5,890	8,050
2058	18,734	25,571	-6,837	132,982	98,600	134.9%		4,037	6,153	8,381
2059	19,494	26,632	-7,138	140,120	102,600	136.6%		4,255	6,371	8,721
2060	20,311	27,799	-7,488	147,608	106,900	138.1%		4,484	6,638	9,087
2061	21,147	28,975	-7,828	155,437	111,300	139.7%		4,723	6,889	9,461
2062	22,021	30,229	-8,208	163,644	115,900	141.2%		4,974	7,174	9,852
2063	22,933	31,586	-8,653	172,297	120,700	142.7%		5,237	7,520	10,260
2064	23,883	32,929	-9,046	181,343	125,700	144.3%		5,514	7,806	10,685
2065	24,871	34,365	-9,494	190,838	130,900	145.8%		5,803	8,142	11,127
2066	25,897	35,820	-9,923	200,761	136,300	147.3%		6,107	8,451	11,586
2067	26,980	37,451	-10,471	211,232	142,000	148.8%		6,424	8,875	12,070
2068	28,101	39,075	-10,974	222,206	147,900	150.2%		6,759	9,244	12,572
2069	29,260	40,791	-11,531	233,737	154,000	151.8%		7,111	9,656	13,090
2070	30,476	42,559	-12,083	245,820	160,400	153.3%		7,480	10,057	13,634

I arbitrarily pick a danger point of 150% of GDP, so this sees the system surviving until 2068.  I could extend this farther, since the main input is GDP and the CBO social security data projects it through 2092 when GDP will be 393,800.  Of course, this assumes that there will never be a recession again, which is unlikely.

My previous projection showed a crisis in 2049, so this is a much more positive forecast.