Change in Real GDP

You have to subtract out any increase in the national debt from the GDP to get the real GDP.  It ends up like this:

		Public Debt	Public Debt	Change in	Change in	% Change
	GDP	Beg of Year	End of Year	Debt	Real GDP	Real GDP
2000	10,252	3687	3434	-253
2001	10,582	3434	3443	9	320	3.13%
2002	10,936	3443	3710	267	88	0.83%
2003	11,458	3710	4176	466	56	0.51%
2004	12,214	4176	4572	396	359	3.14%
2005	13,037	4572	4872	300	523	4.28%
2006	13,815	4872	5054	182	596	4.57%
2007	14,452	5054	5334	280	357	2.59%
2008	14,713	5334	6836	1502	-1,241	-8.59%
2009	14,449	6836	8294	1458	-1,722	-11.70%
2010	14,992	8294	9656	1362	-819	-5.67%
2011	15,543	9656	10876	1220	-669	-4.47%
2012	16,197	10876	11922	1046	-392	-2.52%
2013	16,785	11922	12643	721	-133	-0.82%
2014	17,522	12643	13090	447	290	1.73%
2015	18,219	13090	13929	839	-141	-0.81%
2016	18,707	13929	14374	445	43	0.24%
2017	19,485	14374	14832	458	320	1.71%
2018	20,494	14832	16101	1269	-260	-1.34%
2019	21252	16101	16621	520	238	1.16%
2020	22120	16621	17576	955	-87	-0.41%
2021	22939	17576	18589	1013	-194	-0.88%
2022	23778	18589	19748	1159	-320	-1.40%
2023	24672	19748	20910	1162	-268	-1.13%
2024	25642	20910	22021	1111	-141	-0.57%
2025	26656	22021	23253	1232	-218	-0.85%

There are some flaws in the data here, with inaccurate numbers, but I am looking for the big picture.  The last year that looks completely normal is 2007.  Since then, the GDP has been juiced by the debt.  Yes there are positives in 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2019.  2019 has some problems with the data so ignore it.

So lets call 2017 normal.  The GDP in 2017 went up 778 billion and the debt only went up 458 billion, for a net increase of 320 billion of real GDP.  Every year after that has debt going up more than the change in GDP.

Why does it matter?  Well the theory is that you can grow the economy faster than the debt and decrease debt as a percent of GDP.  But what if you can't and need the debt increase to grow at all?  So if you can't borrow anymore the economy won't grow.  It seems like we are already in that position.  So what can we do?  Just tread water.  Keep borrowing until we can't borrow anymore.  And lower the interest rate to make it manageable, like Japan.

The problem with this is the "dead wood" - zombie corporations, ineffective and bloated bureaucracies, etc - that will keep growing until they suck out the life of the system which will cause a collapse.

Update:  I guess the big question is can we keep the status quo (of being stuck in a dead economy) going, or will it start collapsing faster and thus we need to borrow even more money.  Will the next recession cause $2 trillion/year deficits?  It could happen.  So any more forecasts are pointless until the recovery from the next recession.