Thursday, May 30, 2019

What if the market throws a recession party and the Fed doesn't come?

Date 1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
05/29/19 2.35 2.36 2.37 2.38 2.30 2.09 2.04 2.05 2.16 2.25 2.50 2.69
05/30/19 2.37 2.38 2.38 2.40 2.29 2.06 2.00 2.03 2.12 2.22 2.46 2.65
Source: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

The interest rates dropped again, with the 3 year at 2.00%.  The market is expecting interest rates to drop soon, at least by March 2020.  But just a wild thought.  What if the Fed leaves the rate at 2.35% even if a recession starts?  Ok, so they probably will drop rates, but there is no requirement that they do so.  It is still a very low rate and dropping it lower wouldn't have that much of a stimulative effect.  And they have other tools, like QE.  If the market became convinced that they wouldn't drop rates then the longer rates would go higher, right?  And maybe the recession would cure itself.  See, the problem with dropping rates if that it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy and actually cause a recession.  Also lower rates would provide lower income to savers.  If savers had more money, they might spend or invest more.

So that's my thought for the day.  The Fed should leave the 30-day rate unchanged for the next 5 years come hell or high water.

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