Countdown to FOMC

From reviewing the treasury yield curve, I think that interest rates will drop probably in March 2020.  However, there are other opinions out there that this will happen much sooner.

The site: Countdown to FOMC believe that there is over a 20% chance that rates will drop by July and over a 50% chance that rates will drop by September.

Once you get out to December, they predict a 78.5% chance that rates will drop by a quarter point or more.

I don't have any inside knowledge but I just don't see it.  The bond market is smarter than me, and the 1-year rate is still at 2.32%.  This means only one rate cut in the next year, unless the 1 year drops some more.  Something to keep an eye on.