Reading Tea Leaves Part II - Interest Rate Drop in December 2019

Interest rates dropped again today, so here is how I am reading the current tea leaves.

	Rate	3 month	6 month	1 year	2 year	3 year	5 year
Jun 21, 2019	2.40%	6	6	6	6	6	6
Sep 21, 2019	2.40%		6	6	6	6	6
Dec 21, 2019	2.15%			5.375	5.375	5.375	5.375
Mar 21, 2020	2.15%			5.375	5.375	5.375	5.375
Jun 21, 2020	2.15%				5.375	5.375	5.375
Sep 21, 2020	2.15%				5.375	5.375	5.375
Dec 21, 2020	2.15%				5.375	5.375	5.375
Mar 21, 2021	1.90%				4.75	4.75	4.75
Jun 21, 2021	1.90%					4.75	4.75
Sep 21, 2021	2.15%					5.375	5.375
Dec 21, 2021	2.15%					5.375	5.375
Mar 21, 2022	2.15%					5.375	5.375
Jun 21, 2022	2.15%						5.375
Sep 21, 2022	2.40%						6
Dec 21, 2022	2.40%						6
Mar 21, 2023	2.40%						6
Jun 21, 2023	2.40%						6
Sep 21, 2023	2.40%						6
Dec 21, 2023	2.40%						6
Mar 21, 2024	2.40%						6
Total interest paid		6	12	22.75	43.625	64.5	111.875
Num quarters		1	2	4	8	12	20
Total Annualized Return		2.42%	2.41%	2.28%	2.16%	2.11%	2.14%
Actual as of 5/15		2.42%	2.43%	2.30%	2.16%	2.12%	2.15%

The 7-year and longer doesn't really add anything so I am omitting it.  This predicts a rate drop to 2.15% in December 2019, only 7 months from now, and a further drop to 1.9% in March 2021.

The only reason the Fed would drop rates in December is if the economy worsens considerably and/or if the stock market crashes.  Anyways, this predicts a negative event (like a stock market crash) sometime between September 21 and December 21.  This isn't me saying it, its the bond yield curve.  Of course, there may be more than one way of reading the tea leaves.