Thursday, August 22, 2019

CBO updates its 10-year projection

Read: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029

CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2019 is now $63 billion more—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2020–2029 period, $809 billion more—than it was in May 2019. The agency’s baseline projections of primary deficits (that is, deficits excluding net outlays for interest) for that period increased by a total of $1.9 trillion. Recently enacted legislation accounts for most of that changePartly offsetting the increase in projected primary deficits is a net reduction of $1.1 trillion in the agency’s projections of interest costs over that same period.

So, I could do another long-term projection based on these numbers.  But I don't have time right now.  Let's jump to the bottom line.

My latest projections show that in 2029 debt held by the public will be 30,185 and GDP will be 32,000 for a ratio of debt to GDP of 94.3%.  What does this projection show in 2029?

This report has debt held by the public in 2029 as 29,322.  And GDP as 30,847.  For a ratio of 95.1%.  So the ratio is almost the same.

For some reason they show the 2029 deficit as about $100 billion less than the 2028 deficit.  Because tax revenues will soar between 2028 and 2029, while outlays will increase at a much lesser rate.  This seems highly unlikely to me.

It also assumes that there won't be any recession in the next 10 years.

Anyways it is better than their previous projection.

No comments:

Post a Comment