Friday, August 23, 2019

Alternative Fiscal Scenario

Here is yet another 30 year forecast from the CBO.  The source is here:
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-07/51119-CBO-2019-06-ltbo.xlsx
This was done in June so it doesn't take into account the newest increases in the budget.  This would hit 150% of GDP in 2051.


Nominal Debt Held By Debt Held
Year GDP Public Percent By Public
2019 21,300 78.00% 16,614
2020 22,100 79.00% 17,459
2021 22,900 81.00% 18,549
2022 23,800 83.00% 19,754
2023 24,700 85.00% 20,995
2024 25,600 86.00% 22,016
2025 26,700 87.00% 23,229
2026 27,700 88.00% 24,376
2027 28,700 89.00% 25,543
2028 29,900 91.00% 27,209
2029 31,000 92.00% 28,520
2030 32,200 93.00% 29,946
2031 33,500 95.00% 31,825
2032 34,800 97.00% 33,756
2033 36,100 99.00% 35,739
2034 37,500 101.00% 37,875
2035 38,900 103.00% 40,067
2036 40,400 105.00% 42,420
2037 41,900 108.00% 45,252
2038 43,600 110.00% 47,960
2039 45,200 113.00% 51,076
2040 47,000 116.00% 54,520
2041 48,800 119.00% 58,072
2042 50,700 122.00% 61,854
2043 52,700 125.00% 65,875
2044 54,800 128.00% 70,144
2045 56,900 131.00% 74,539
2046 59,200 134.00% 79,328
2047 61,500 137.00% 84,255
2048 64,000 141.00% 90,240
2049 66,500 144.00% 95,760

Update:  Notice that this has an odd "dip" in 2029.  The increase in debt held by the public from 2027 to 2028 is 1,666 but the increase from 2028 to  2029 is only 1,311.  This doesn't make any sense.  Maybe there is some tax cut that expires in 10 years, leading to an increase in tax revenue in 2029.

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