Operation Mockingbird

 After Trump kicked Zelensky out of the Oval Office last Friday (Feb 28), European leaders thought it would be cute to post the same message on X.  The message:

Your dignity honours the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President @ZelenskyyUa. We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.

This identical message was posted by the following:

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen

President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola

European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis 

European Parliament member Manfred Weber

European Council President António Costa

The messages were all sent within 15 minutes of each other.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/european-leaders-flamed-creepy-pro-zelenskyy-posts-read-exactly-same

My guess is that the same person manages all of their social media accounts and didn't think about how odd this would look.

Democratic Senators or Puppets

 Why would these Senators make videos with the same script word for word?  Are they just really lazy or are these deepfakes or are they being controlled?  It is bizarre no matter what the explanation is, and these "distinguished" Senators have diminished themselves.  Here is the script:

The video opened with a short clip of Trump vowing to lower the cost of living for Americans beginning on the first day of his presidency. "Shit that ain't true, That's what you just saw.  Since day one of Donald Trump's presidency, prices are up, not down. Inflation is getting worse, not better. The prices of groceries, gas, housing, eggs, they're all getting more expensive. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has done nothing to lower costs for you.  Instead, he's pardoned violent criminals who beat police officers on January 6," the videos continued, cutting from the senators to show a clip from the protest at the Capitol.  "He's letting Elon Musk take a chainsaw to vital government programs. And then, even worse, giving him access to Americans' most sensitive data — Social Security numbers, tax returns, health care bills. Trump and Musk are firing thousands of essential workers and freezing funding for vital programs.  Why are they doing this? Trump, Musk, DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] are taking these vital services away from you for one reason only: so they can give tax breaks to their billionaires' club, they added. Billionaires win; families lose. And that is the truth.

And here are the puppets who are being told what to say:

Senators Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)
Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.),
Cory Booker (D-N.J.),
Dick Durbin (Ill.),
Chris Coons (Del.),
Tammy Baldwin (Wis.),
Tammy Duckworth (Ill.),
Tim Kaine (Va.),
Chris Van Hollen (Md.),
Gary Peters (Mich.),
Mazie Hirono (Hawaii),
Peter Welch (Vt.),
Ben Ray Luján (N.M.),
Martin Heinrich (N.M.),
Jeff Merkley (Ore.),
Mark Kelly (Ariz.), 
Brian Schatz (Hawaii),
Andy Kim (N.J.),
Alex Padilla (Calif.),
Mark Warner (Va.),
Richard Blumenthal (Conn.),
Angela Alsobrooks (Md.),
Ed Markey (Mass.),
Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.),
and Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.).

Source: https://www.theblaze.com/news/25-dem-senators-parrot-same-script-in-videos-slamming-trump-musk

https://x.com/InsiderWire/status/1896965208830308778

The Democrats want to shut down the government on March 15

Say Democrats vote against a clean spending bill in the House and allow a shutdown to occur: Musk might have dismissed tens of thousands of federal workers, but Uncle Sam still employs more than 2 million more who would be furloughed without pay.  Amid the finger-pointing, Republicans would call vote after vote to reopen government agencies — casting Democrats as the ones who are repeatedly choosing to keep agencies shut and employees home without paychecks. 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/03/04/house-democrats-shutdown-doge-00205584

Trump, the evil genius, is playing 10-D chess.  The Democrats don't like spending cuts, so in protest they shut the whole thing down, showing how worthless most bureaucrats are.  They aren't going to win this, because they need the government open more than the Republicans do.  Its like a union going on strike - can they outlast management who now doesn't have to pay the wages of the strikers?    

And then Trump is intentionally causing a recession with cutting government spending and imposing tariffs.  This will force the Fed to cut rates, which is what Trump wants.  

How Janet Yellen intentionally set a $9 trillion trap for Scott Bessent

 There are $9.2 trillion of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds expiring that must be refinanced in 2025.  Until 2021, the long term interest rates were under 2%.  Yellen could have sold more bonds at the long end of the curve, but she choose to sell them short-term.  Now this must all be refinanced at 4.25% (or higher) interest.

Read: https://confoundedinterest.net/2025/03/02/yellens-folly-treasury-secretary-bessent-faces-refinancing-of-9-trillion-in-treasury-debt-in-2025-thanks-biden-pelosi-schumer/

Unleash the warrior within

 Read: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14452983/trump-fuels-rumors-white-house-takedown-zelensky-promoting-elaborate-theory.html

Amid speculation that President Trump and JD Vance planned an Oval Office ambush of Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump has now posted an analysis by a martial arts instructor who called it a 'setup.' Trump, who played a round of golf at his West Palm Beach course Sunday, posted a write-up by the head of an Arizona karate dojo who took on the idea that the angry White House meeting went off the rails by accident – instead calling it 'brilliant strategy.' The article acknowledged segments of public revulsion of what happened – but speculated that Trump and Vance maneuvered to outflank Zelensky during the televised smack-down, comparing the president to a 'master chess player.' 'So what you witnessed tonight was a setup. Trump and JD Vance knew that the only way to achieve peace was to strategically align, at least on the surface, with Russia. Why? Because Russia would never sign a peace treaty if Ukraine were admitted into NATO,' wrote Michael McCune in his posting on his Facebook group page.  The page links him with the dojo where he is an instructor, with the tag 'Karate-Do way of life' and the slogan 'unleash the warrior within.'  Trump snipped the text below the 'setup' line, instead including an image of the bottom of his post on his Truth Social site without the full link, identifying McCune only by his name without any other identifying information. However the full post is available online. 'Now, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to back down and accept Trump's terms. But here’s the genius part—Trump is actually protecting Ukraine without dragging the U.S. into war,' it said. The post says the rare earth minerals deal negotiated by both sides – which was completed but left unsigned after the blowup – 'ensures that Americans will be involved in Ukraine’s mining industry. This prevents Russia from launching an invasion, because attacking Ukraine would mean endangering American lives—something that would force the U.S. to respond.' 'Trump played both sides like a master chess player. In the end, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to concede, because without U.S. support, Ukraine cannot win a prolonged war against Russia. And once U.S. companies have mining operations in Ukraine, Putin will be unable to attack without triggering massive international consequences. 'Don’t underestimate Donald Trump. In this game of chess, he’s 10 moves ahead of everyone,' he concluded.

Comment:  Zelensky is an idiot.  All he can say is: "Putin bad, Ukraine is a victim, give me money in unlimited amounts, forever".  He needs to trust Trump, who actually has a plan that Zelensky can't understand.  

Transhumanism is Slavery

The dominant techno-optimist ideology of our time—a reckless fusion of Nietzschean will-to-power, accelerationist dogma, and neoliberal market absolutism—is not just misguided but fundamentally anti-human. It does not seek to serve humanity but to surpass it, viewing human beings as a temporary evolutionary step toward a post-biological order. Its adherents do not merely disrupt industries; they aim to rewrite human nature itself, treating moral limits as obsolete constraints and communities as relics to be dismantled. Beneath their utopian rhetoric lies a nihilistic project: the replacement of embodied souls with disembodied data, of sacred life with machine logic.

https://news.gab.com/2025/02/the-transhumanist-delusion/

Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future

 This looks like a very interesting book that I haven't read yet.  Available here: https://archive.org/details/ElonMuskTeslaSpaceX/mode/2up

A version of this, called "Elon Musk and the Quest for a Fantastic Future, Young Readers Edition" was produced in 2019 for a cost of $17,054, funded by USAID.  Ironically, this is the agency that Musk is trying to shut down.

Update:  This is Retrofuturism, with retro being 2019, which seems like ancient history now.

I mentioned this before somewhere but the total National Debt was only $23.2 trillion on 12/31/2019, whereas now it is $36.2 trillion.

The Egg Shortage Plandemic

 In 2020, eggs prices cost an average of $1.51 per dozen.  Today (Feb 24, 2025), it is virtually impossible to buy eggs because they are sold out, and when you can buy them, the cost is about $8 per dozen.  

Why is this? Because the US Department of Agriculture has ordered the killing of hundreds of millions of chickens because they may be infected with bird flu (H5N1).  The only problem is that the bird flu is a massive fraud that exceeds even COVID-19.  The PCR test is fake and there is no bird flu.  The CDC and USDA are run by psychopaths.

Read this: https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/avian-flu-virus-h5n1-no-proof-for

Also: https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/faking-fakery-the-prequel-how-theranos

Wait! What am I talking about? PCR is not a diagnostic. Except, the CDC goons are currently slaughtering and mRNA-poisoning all 300M+ healthy chickens in the US based on the fake PCR tests of “H5N1 virus”… but nevermind! Reasonable, thoughtful, health freedom-minded scientists do not claim it’s a diagnostic. They talk about “facts and fears of avian flu”, “leaky vaccines”, etc. omitting the only true fact - H5N1 or avian flu is a fake. 

A Debt Spiral and US Financial Collapse in the 2030s

 Read:  https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2025/02/a-debt-spiral-and-us-financial-collapse-in-the-2030s.html

The U.S. national debt is currently $37 trillion, and it’s growing at a rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. This translates to an annual increase of approximately $3.65 trillion (since there are about 365 days in a year, and $1 trillion every 100 days equals 3.65 increments per year). If this pace continues unchecked, the debt could reach insane levels:

In 5 years [2030]: $37 trillion + (5 × $3.65 trillion) = $55.25 trillion
In 10 years [2035]: $37 trillion + (10 × $3.65 trillion) = $73.5 trillion
In 20 years [2045]: $37 trillion + (20 × $3.65 trillion) = $110 trillion

Conclusion: High Risk by the mid-2030s and pretty certain doom by 2045

USSR-style Collapse: Not imminent, but a debt crisis could emerge in 10–20 years (2034–2044) if the debt grows unchecked at $1 trillion every 100 days, reaching $73.5–$110 trillion. A sudden collapse is less likely than a prolonged struggle.

Hyperinflation and Interest Rate/Inflation Spiral: Could begin within 10 years (by 2034) if debt servicing costs spiral and confidence in the dollar weakens, with hyperinflation possible soon after.

Loss of Reserve Currency Status: A gradual shift to Bitcoin, the Euro, or the Yuan might occur over 20–30 years (2044–2054), though a faster transition by 2030 is possible if a crisis accelerates.

Comment:  The author seems to think that the increase in debt is linear, whereas actually it will be like compounding interest.  I am forecasting a $110 trillion debt to the public level (which is less than the total national debt) in 2045 as well.

Could we just adjust to the higher debt level in 2045, which is about 3 times the current level?  After all, what was it 20 years ago in 2005?  About $8 trillion.  So it has increased more than 4.5 times since then.

Mystery Man

 

Who is this?

I am really curious as to who this man is.  He is to the left of Pete Hegseth in Brussels, and is probably an American.  I haven't tried too hard to identify him but here is the first guess according to Yandex Images.

Arturs Karins (Krišjānis Kariņš), former Prime Minister of Latvia.

But I don't think that is him.  Why would the former Prime Minister of Latvia be walking next to Pete Hegseth?  Any other guesses?

I guess I should say, wrong answers only.

 ===================================

Guess #2 also according to Yandex:

Nikolai Denkov, former Prime Minister of Bulgaria.  I also don't think it is him as they look nothing alike except for the glasses.

Guess #3 according to Google Image search:

Woody Johnson, former US Ambassador to the UK.  It's definitely not him.  

Guess #4

It's definitely not Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO

Guess #5

Not Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense.

Guess #6

Not Bruno Le Maire of France.

Guess #7

Not Andrzej Duda, President of Poland. 

Guess #8

Could it be Jens Stoltenberg of Norway, former Secretary General of NATO?  Maybe, but probably not.

Guess #9

Dietmar Bartsch, German politician?  No

Guess #10, from Google image search

David F Helvey, former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs.  Maybe, but probably not.  Upon looking again, I think this is the guy.

Another picture of David Helvey from here.  His title is now Deputy Defense Advisor in the US Mission to NATO.

The OODA Loop

 This is Sun Tzu The Art of War type stuff.  OODA means Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.  It means that you interrupt your enemies decision-making process, watch how they react, and then do something else that interrupts their decision making, and it throws them off balance.  It puts you in charge.

"If you could implement the OODA-loop faster than your enemy, then you were “inside” his decision-making cycle.  And they would die.  The key aspect of the OODA-loop is the “loop” — this wasn’t a one-time exercise, but a series of connected actions, each feeding off the other. You took an action and then observed the enemy’s reaction. You orient on the reaction, and decide which option is best before acting. The enemy now reacts. And the cycle repeats. Until the enemy dies. The goal is not to let up once engaged, to keep the enemy reacting to your actions until you have them where you want them."

Read:   https://consortiumnews.com/2025/02/17/scott-ritter-trumps-munich-strategy/

This is the game Trump is playing with the European Union.

Biden and his predecessors delivered a stinking fiscal and monetary mess to Trump

 Read: https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/trumps-fiscal-hole-an-emperor-in

The US combination of high government debt to GDP (and very high overall public and private debt to GDP), a high government deficit even with a growing economy, and a 4% of GDP current account deficit places it in the worst position relative to other Western nations; only excepting a Japan that went into full on debt monetization many years ago.  Rating agencies estimate a 7.5% of GDP US deficit in both 2025 and 2026, given Trump’s stated plan to renew his expiring tax cuts and provide more for the rich oligarchs, and the small majority that the Republicans have in the Congress. Hence the emergence of DOGE under Elon Musk tasked with rapidly reducing expenditures.

Note: The 7.5% of GDP deficit prediction caught my attention.  I just got through predicting the 2025 deficit as $2.1 trillion, which is 6.9% of GDP.  A 7.5% of GDP deficit in 2025 would be $2.3 trillion, which is another $200 billion.

Projected Debt reaches limit in 2042

 

Here is my chart of projected deficits, interest and debt.  This builds on my previous forecast of Projected Government Spending (ex Interest) through 2040.  My calculation of interest is simple and probably wrong.  It is just 4% of the Debt to the Public at the end of the previous fiscal year.  So this indicates a breaking point in 2042.  Compare this to my previous forecast that indicated a breaking point in 2059.  And the one before that which saw a breaking point in 2039.

The main difference between this and the CBO forecast is that I project much higher interest costs.  I think that they are vastly underestimating interest expenses.  It makes sense to me to base interest on the amount of debt, instead of GDP.  

So what do I think will happen in 2042, give or take a few years?  Most likely inflation will rise above 10% or even go into hyperinflation, making our financial system unrecognizable.

What about DOGE cutting spending?  I don't think it will make much of a difference, the swamp is too deep and can't be drained.  Maybe they could cut spending by $100 billion per year, but it won't make a very big difference.

Magical Money Tree - the next generation

 

Source: https://www.mmted.org/smithfamily/

Hey kids, here is some more propaganda, err "education" for you.  Learn how old people are greedy and stupid and that you know the "truth" which is that the government can solve all the economic problems with the Magical Money Tree and there is no need to raise taxes or cut spending or lay off people.

Projected Government Spending (ex Interest) through 2040

 This is my chart of Projected Government Spending through 2040.  I am just taking the GDP I developed in a prior step and then using the same percentages that CBO does.  I see a couple of weird dips, like in 2029, spending is supposed to drop from 20.3% of GDP to 19.9% of GDP - why is that?  Also, it drops from 20.7% in 2033 to 20.3% in 2034 to 20.0% in 2035.  If anything, I would expect it to increase because that is around the time that the Social Security trust fund will run out.

 

Note that this does not include interest on the national debt, and so this does not show the total projected deficits.  In 2024, the actual spending, excluding interest, was $5.802 trillion, and interest was $950 billion, for total spending of $6.752 trillion. 

Another thing, I don't know why the CBO projects these to the nearest billion, to make them seem more precise than they are.

Projected Tax Revenue through 2040

 This is the second step in my financial projections which is the calculation of revenue.  I am using 17% of GDP as an average.  (Note that in 2024 the revenue was 16.7% of GDP).  

The CBO in their models assumes that revenue as a percent of GDP will rise almost every year, from 17.1% of GDP in 2025 to 18.6% in 2040 all the way to 19.3% in 2055 if you look at their latest Long-Term Budget Projection.  They don't explain why revenue as a percent of GDP will rise every year.  I think it is wishful thinking on their part. (See my commentary on the Closure Rule).  The 2026 increase could be explained because the Trump tax cuts of 2017 were supposed to end at the end of 2025, but that still doesn't explain why revenue as a percent of GDP will keep rising.  And I think it is likely that the tax cuts will be extended. 

So here is my forecast of tax revenues, with the CBO numbers as a comparison.  I am actually pretty close to their numbers, but slightly less.

  

Gold Rush

 

Source: https://goldprice.org/

The price of gold jumped $68 today, and at this rate it will exceed $3000 per ounce within a few days.  It was as low as $1820/ounce on on 10/5/23 and since then the price has soared and it doesn't appear to be stopping.

See also: https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/04/gold-is-going-up-at-rate-of-25-per-month.html  At that time in April 2024, the price of gold was $2296 and I commented that it was increasing at the rate of 2.5% per month and 30% annually.  Actually it has increased 41.75% over the last year.

Also watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdpf34TyVI0  A "Gold Run" May Have Begun at the Bank of England.  Everyone who has gold at the Bank of England is trying to get their gold out and gold that is located there is selling at a discount.  This is because people believe that the BOE doesn't actually have their gold because they lent it out.

See also: Bank of England suffers exodus of gold bullion .  Thousands of gold bars have been withdrawn from the Bank of England’s vaults since the end of last year amid fears around the impact of Donald Trump’s trade war. Threadneedle Street said roughly 8,000 bars had been moved out of its vaults in the past couple of months, representing around 2pc of the total stock. Sir Dave Ramsden, a deputy governor of the Bank, said it had been inundated with requests after gold prices on the futures market in New York surged above the London cash price. The wait to withdraw bullion stored in the Bank’s vaults has risen from a few days to several weeks as traders rush to take advantage of differences in price.

Projected GDP through 2040

 I feel like making another financial projection of the deficit and the place to start is the GDP forecast.  My previous forecast assumed an average nominal GDP growth rate of 5.5%.  I think this is too high, and for here I am using a 4.2% average nominal GDP growth.  This comes from the Social Security projected growth rate using intermediate assumptions. The Social Security projections actually go out through 2100, but for this I will only go through 2040.  The 4.2% projections are actually higher than the ones CBO uses in their January 2025 report, which are about 3.8%.  The CBO projections never get adjusted to actual GDP so I think I have a better starting point.  Also, note that I start with the BEA number for 3rd quarter 2024, which is $29.35 trillion (which I round to $29.4T). 

So here are the numbers, rounded to the nearest 100 billion, using a simplified format so it can be embedded.  These are the fiscal year projections (as of September 30) of each year.

GDP Projected

Forecast 4.20%

-------    ----------

2024 29,400

2025 30,600

2026 31,900

2027 33,200

2028 34,600

2029 36,100

2030 37,600

2031 39,200

2032 40,800

2033 42,500

2034 44,300

2035 46,200

2036 48,100

2037 50,100

2038 52,200

2039 54,400

2040 56,700

The engineered housing crash and planned takeover of housing by hedge funds

 

Watch the video, it is very interesting.  This is going on right now in real time.  Housing prices are way too high and need to come down about 25%, foreclosures are skyrocketing, and hedge funds are poised to buy up houses at huge discounts.

Update:  Blogger won't show the correct video, but here is the link: https://www.youtube.com/embed/4hejP3CV6wQ

The woman who can't be fired

Ellen Weintraub, Commissioner-for-Life of the Federal Electoral Commission

Ellen Weintraub was appointed as commissioner of the Federal Election Commission in 2002 by President George W Bush.  She received a salary of $158,500 in 2023 (according to this source).  

According to her, she was appointed for life and can't be fired except under certain circumstances.  However, Trump fired her anyway by turning off her email, taking her computer and disabling her pass that allows her to go in the building. According to her, she can be fired only by a President replacing her when her term has expired.  However, her term expired in 2007 and she has apparently never been re-appointed.  Apparently, she thinks the only way to fire her would be to explicitly appoint her for another term, and then when what term ends, she could be fired.

This should be interesting to watch.

A Unified Theory of Trump’s Hyperactive Start

 https://www.thefp.com/p/a-unified-theory-of-trumps-hyperactive

You create a debate over the issues knowing that, because of polarization, at least one-third of the American public is going to take your side, and sometimes much more than that. These are your investments in changing the culture. And do it with as many issues as possible, as quickly as possible (reread Ezra Klein on this). Think of it as akin to an early Jordan Peterson cranking out all those videos. Flood the zone. That is how you have an impact in an internet intensive, attention-at-a-premium world.

You will not win all of these cultural debates, but you will control the ideological agenda (I hesitate to call it an “intellectual” agenda, but it is). Your opponents will be dispirited and disorganized, just like the Democrats today. Then just keep on going. In the long run, you may end up “owning” far more of the culture than you suspected was possible.

The government will go dark on March 15, 2025

Read:   https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/04/government-shutdown-trump-funding-freeze-00202533  

While the Democratic leader in the House demands that Trump’s funding freeze be “choked off” as part of any funding agreement, Republican lawmakers say it will be Democrats who take the fall for causing a funding lapse if they hold that line. And so the shutdown blame game begins again. The exasperated Democrats sitting opposite Cole at the negotiating table say any good faith agreement with their GOP counterparts is meaningless if Trump disregards the will of Congress by using “impoundment” to withhold funding they pass into law. “If the White House is not going to honor an agreement and use impoundment, then it is hard to come to agreement,” Washington Sen. Patty Murray , the Senate’s top Democratic appropriator, said in a brief interview Tuesday.

That is only 37 days away.  The government shutdown that had been scheduled for December 21, 2024 has been postponed until March 15, 2025.  Aggravating factors:

1. Trump wants the debt ceiling also included in any deal. (At least he did in December).

2. Trump wants to make spending cuts and use impoundment.   So ironically, the Democrats who don't want spending cuts, will refuse to make a deal, which will result in the shutdown.  They don't have any leverage here.

3. The hard core right, I guess that includes me, wants further spending cuts and will reject a compromise bill.  Meanwhile, the Democrats won't support it because there are too many cuts.  So the votes aren't there.

4. Also, don't forget the BTFP will expire on March 10, 2025, which may cause a banking crisis because many banks are reliant on it.  Update: The BTFP is already shut down and this didn't cause an issue, so scratch this.

Shut it all down!

Update: 5. According to Thomas Massie, the Democrats will insist on fully funding US AID as a price of avoiding a government shutdown.  So the Republicans will have to agree to fund US AID in order to reopen the government. Or else not agree and keep the government closed.  Hmm, tough decision.

=================

Update: The Democrats agree that the government should shut down.   https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2025/02/10/rep-hoyle-dems-wont-fund-the-government-if-it-undermines-the-american-people/

Representative Val Hoyle (D-OR) said on Monday on CNN’s “News Central” that Democratic lawmakers will not vote to fund the government if Republicans are advancing President Donald Trump’s agenda, which “undermines the American people.” Host John Berman said, “What can you do about this? There are some raising the possibility of shutting down the government in March, when some of these funding bills come up for a vote. Do you think Democrats should stand in the way?”  They will need Democratic votes to pass this budget. And fundamentally we’re not going to vote for something that undermines the American people.”

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) in 67 Bullet Points

I am just making a note of this:  https://mmt101.substack.com/p/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-in-67  The phrase "Taxes don't pay for spending" is repeated 9 times.  If you don't need taxes for spending, then you should abolish the IRS.  Also, the Treasury doesn't need to issue bonds anymore, it can just spend whatever it wants.  

GDP is now $29.7 trillion

 Earlier today, I posted my unhappiness with the BEA not telling us the actual GDP in trillions.   It turns out that they didn't mention it because they didn't think it was important, but I found the actual number.  Go to their announcement, now do a search on "key source data and assumptions", which is hyperlinked, and click on it to download a spreadsheet called "https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-01/gdpkeysource-4q24-adv.xlsx".  Open it, and go to the Advance tab.  On the line that says "Gross Domestic Product", under the column "2024Q4", it is listed as 29,700.6.

So the ratio of Debt to the Public ($28.8 trillion) divided by GDP ($29.7 trillion) is 97%.  This is almost the same as one year ago with Debt to the Public of $27.0 trillion divided by GDP of $27.9 trillion to get 96.8%.  The debt and GDP both went up $1.8 trillion.

Even Progressives Now Worry About the Federal Debt

 https://dnyuz.com/2025/01/30/even-progressives-now-worry-about-the-federal-debt/

The main concern, says Danny Yagan, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, is a tipping point that forces a sudden and catastrophic adjustment.  He cites a 1998 paper that likened the deficit not to a long term drag on growth — such as a termite infestation that gradually erodes the foundations of a house — but rather to a risky gamble, like not buying home insurance. If the fiscal house catches fire, perhaps because investors lose confidence in the government’s ability to pay back its debt, the options are not good: They include defaulting, forcing banks to hold more Treasuries, running inflation high so the debt recedes, or cramming down spending, all of which could cause a recession.  The reason that gamble looks increasingly risky is that large deficits could be starting to push up interest rates (“r” in economics lingo) while growth (“g”) remains steady. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that debt will continue to increase, which forces higher interest payments, creating an upward spiral.  “Under C.B.O.’s projections, that’s going to slowly increase r relative to g until about 2040, when r is greater than g, and then debt starts to explode on its own,” said Dr. Yagan, who served in the Biden administration’s Office of Management and Budget and co-founded the Budget Lab at Yale. “That’s what people are worried about.”

BEA says that GDP increased but doesn't say how much

 Read: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-year-2024-advance-estimate

"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024".

Pardon my French, but this is BS.  It is meaningless.  The press release doesn't say what GDP actually is.  I did a search on the word "trillion", but it isn't in there.  Compare that to the previous release, which states "Current dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent at an annual rate, or $333.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $29.35 trillion."  Also this: "Current dollar GDP increased 5.0 percent at an annual rate, or $358.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $29.37 trillion, an upward revision of $20.6 billion from the previous estimate".

First, they are using mind tricks with Real GDP vs Current GDP, based on what they think inflation is.  Then they say Real GDP increased 2.3% and Current GDP increased 4.5% but this is an annual rate and not a quarterly rate.  Are they saying  that current GDP increased by 1.125% in the quarter (4.5% divided by 4)?  

I am not happy with the obfuscation.  So until they straight up tell me what Current Dollar GDP is, I am using the previous number, $29.37 trillion. 

Why is this important?  Because they use debt as a percent of GDP and justify rising debt because the percent of GDP doesn't increase very much.  So lets look at the current situation as of December 31 for 2023 and 2024.

As of December 31, 2023, Debt to the Public is $27.0 trillion and GDP was $27.9 trillion for a Debt to GDP ration of 97%.

As of December 31, 2024 Debt to the  Public is $28.837 trillion (rounded to $28.8 trillion) and GDP was $29.4 trillion (rounded) for a ratio of 98%.  So the ratio went up by 1%, which is not good news but its not horrible news.  

The BEA will release a second estimate of 4th Quarter GDP in about a month.

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I am trying to not post as much, so I will say a few more things in my now less frequent post.  First, I predicted on December 18 that the Fed would cut rates on Jan 28, 2025 and they didn't, so I was wrong.  It was freaky how much the Fed followed a 17 year pattern, but maybe the pattern has been broken.  Or maybe they will still cut rates in a month or two, and the 17 year pattern is just extended slightly.  I previously predicted a recession to begin on February 1, 2025, but maybe this will be delayed a few months.

Second, I just want to mention the Federal Reserve Deficit.  It was $210.97 billion as of 11/27/24, and $216.6 billion as of 1/1/2025.  And then as of 1/29/25 the number is $221.1 billion.  So it is increasing about $5 billion per month.  As I mentioned before, this is free money for billionaires. And part of the reason there is this deficit is because of the 3% mortgages that are still out there. 

Third, I think there are some similarities between 2023 and 2025.  On 12/30/22, the public debt was $24.5 trillion, and it increased to about $24.6 trillion by the end of January 2023, and then it pretty much froze there until about June 1, 2023 when the debt ceiling was lifted. It hit the $25 trillion mark on 6/10/23, and then quickly hit $26 trillion on 8/31/23.   

Right now, the Debt to the Public is still about $28.85 trillion, and it will probably remain there until about June 1.  I think we will not see $29 trillion public debt until June 2025, and then $30 trillion within a few months.  After that, if there is a recession, then we can expect this to rise a trillion every 90 days.

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Update:  I am still upset that BEA is playing games with the actual numbers, but I do know how to calculate.  On 1/30/2024, they said that Current dollar GDP is $27.94 trillion. On yesterday's press release, they said that current dollar GDP increased at a 4.5% rate, which would make it $29.2 trillion. In the above calculation I used $29.4 trillion, so I will stick with that until I am further enlightened.

While I am on the topic, if the government hypothetically decided to do a stimulus program of $1 trillion (for easy math), and that all went into GDP and that amount was borrowed, it would increase both the numerator and denominator.  If the numerator is greater than the denominator, then the ratio would actually decrease.  For example, current total national debt is about $36.2 trillion and GDP is $29.4 trillion.  The ratio is 123%.  If both of these numbers went up by $1 trillion then the ratio would drop to 122%.  So the cure for more spending is ... more spending.  What if the reverse happened, Elon finds $1 trillion of wasteful government spending (not too hard to find), so GDP drops $1 trillion (but the national debt would not decrease), so $36.2 trillion divided by $28.4 trillion is 127%.  So if you live in their world of lying with statistics, government spending more is good, but cutting government spending is bad. I hate these magic bull caca artists.

Is a debt to GDP ratio of 132% unsustainable?

 Whenever I see someone write that a certain debt to GDP ratio is unsustainable, my curiosity is peaked.  Read this:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-bond-tantrum-wrenching-worrisome-200009547.html

Bloomberg Economics projects the US debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 132% by 2034 — what many market watchers see as an unsustainable level.

This Finance Yahoo article doesn't show the source which makes me a little skeptical.  And who are these "many market watchers"? This odd phrase makes me think the author is just making this up.  The days of accepting main street news without hyperlinks or footnotes are long over.  And I can't find the article they are referring to.  

But I did find this - https://www.crfb.org/blogs/debt-surges-extensions - which says this "Based on new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), debt could reach 132 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Fiscal Year (FY) 2034 under an alternative scenario".  It doesn't call this level "unsustainable".  But it does seem to be referring to the same number.

So let's look at it.  Is this debt the "debt held by the public" or the "national debt"?  I think it is the debt held by the public.  For reference, that number today is about $28.8 trillion.  Under the alternative scenario, they say the debt held by the public in 2034 will be $54.8 trillion, almost double what it is today.  So what will GDP be in 2034?  It doesn't say, but using math, it would be $41.5 trillion (currently it is about $29.35 trillion).  

What makes that level unsustainable?  Nobody can say, even though supposedly "many market watchers" are saying that.  I do agree that some level of debt is unsustainable, but I would put that level at about 200% of GDP instead of 132%.  The puppet masters can print money at will, and even magically set the interest rates, and the brainwashed masses just accept it without question, so why would this end any time soon?

Unless cracks start to appear in the system, and the whole thing malfunctions either by burning up or melting down. 

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See also: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-million-simulations-show-us-debt-is-on-an-unsustainable-path/ar-BB1kXUtQ

The United States is almost certainly on an unsustainable path with regard to the astronomic rise in its national debt, according to a million simulations run by Bloomberg. Bloomberg reported Tuesday [4/2/24] that it conducted a million simulations on the U.S. debt outlook and found 88% of them show borrowing is on an "unsustainable path."

Total Kievan Debellation

 https://bigserge.substack.com/p/total-kievan-debellation

In short, Ukraine is on the path to debellation - defeat through the total exhaustion of its capacity to resist. They are not exactly out of men and vehicles and missiles, but these lines are all pointing downward. A strategic Ukrainian defeat - once unthinkable to the western foreign policy apparatus and commentariat - is now on the table. Quite interestingly, now that Donald Trump is about to return to the White House, it is suddenly acceptable to speak of Ukrainian defeat. Robert Kagan - a stalwart champion of Ukraine if there ever was one - now says the quiet part out loud:

Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

The Bijlmer

This is an interesting video about how a planned utopian city area in Amsterdam called The Bijilmer became a dystopian nightmare. About half of the high rise apartments were demolished and the place is not as bad now.  See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bijlmermeer

The North American Technate

 

Source: https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/trumps-north-american-technate

What is a technate?  

A technate is a large area of land governed by a technocracy, a system of government where decision-makers are chosen based on their expertise in a specific area. The term was coined by Technocracy Incorporated in the 1930s.  The Technate was envisioned as a North American superpower that would use thermodynamic energy accounting instead of money. The idea was to use the region's resources and industry to provide an abundance of goods and services to citizens in a sustainable way. 

 See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technocracy_movement  
https://technocracy.fandom.com/wiki/Technate
https://www.technocracyinc.org/

This sounds like something out of science fiction.

Also read: https://www.ssa.gov/history/briefhistory3.html which mentions Technocracy.  I don't have time right now.

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This is hilarious! Some people are taking this seriously. Should Trump "liberate" Canada from the British monarchy and Greenland from the Danish monarchy?

The Midweek Update - In the Immediate Crosshairs of Trump: Britain, Canada and Greenland - January 8, 2025  

The episode highlights Trump's call for the liberation of countries under monarchy, like Britain, Canada, and Greenland, and examines the implications for other nations and global security.