Meltup or Meltdown?

The SKEW index is at 143.20.  This measures the probability of a severe market correction.

So what happened the last 3 times the index was this high?

June 21, 1990 - "The recession of the early 1990s lasted from July 1990 to March 1991."  On June 21, 1990, the Dow closed at 2901.73. One Sept 21, 1990, the Dow closed at 2512.38, which was 13.4% lower.

Oct. 16, 1998 -  LTCM and Russian financial crisis. No recession.  On 10/16/1998, the Dow was at 8416.76.  On 1/15/1999, it was at 9340.55, and increase of 11%.

Mar 16, 2006 - Housing bubble peak.  The Great Recession began in Dec. 2007, almost 2 years later.  On 3/16/2006, the Dow was at 11,253.  On 6/16/2006, the Dow was at 11,015, a decrease of 2%.  But just a few days earlier, on 6/13/2006, the Dow was at 10,706, a decrease of 4.8%.

I think we are going to have a meltup before the meltdown.  A crash is inevitable, but usually occurs in September or October.  So my prediction is a rise of about 6%.  Now the Dow is at 16,221. It should be over 17,200 on 3/21/14, a rise of about 1000.

Also, sunspot cycles are a leading indicator - they usually max out 6-18 months before a crash.

Buy, buy, buy!

Warning: I am not a registered investment advisor.  My track record is close to zero.  Do your own research.