Parcel O'Rogues

Fareweel to a' our Scottish fame,

Fareweel our ancient glory;

Fareweel even to the Scottish name,

So famed in martial story!

Now Sark rins over Solway sands,

And Tweed rins to the ocean,

To mark where England's province stands—

Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!

What force or guile could not subdue

Thro' many warlike ages,

Is wrought now by a coward few,

For hireling traitor's wages.

The English steel we could disdain,

Secure in valour's station;

But English gold has been our bane—

Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!

O, would or I had seen the day

That treason thus could sell us,

My auld grey head had lien in clay

Wi' Bruce and loyal Wallace!

But pith and power, till my last hour,

I'll mak this declaration:

We're bought and sold for English gold—

Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!

Robert Burns, A Parcel of Rogues In a Nation, 1791

New high for the Dow

Naturally occurring trans-fats vs artificial trans-fats

Trans fatty acids are found naturally in some foods and are formed during food processing; they are not essential in the diet. A number of studies have observed an association between increased trans fatty acid intake and increased risk of cardiovascular disease. This increased risk is due, in part, to its LDL cholesterol-raising effect. Therefore, Americans should keep their intake of trans fatty acids as low as possible.

Some trans fatty acids that Americans consume are produced by a process referred to as hydrogenation. Hydrogenation is used by food manufacturers to make products containing unsaturated fatty acids solid at room temperature (i.e., more saturated) and therefore more resistant to becoming spoiled or rancid. Partial hydrogenation means that some, but not all, unsaturated fatty acids are converted to saturated fatty acids; some of the unsaturated fatty acids are changed from a cis to trans configuration. Trans fatty acids produced this way are referred to as “synthetic” or “industrial” trans fatty acids. Synthetic trans fatty acids are found in the partially hydrogenated oils used in some margarines, snack foods, and prepared desserts as a replacement for saturated fatty acids. Trans fatty acids also are produced by grazing animals, and small quantities are therefore found in meat and milk products. These are called “natural” or “ruminant” trans fatty acids. There is limited evidence to conclude whether synthetic and natural trans fatty acids differ in their metabolic effects and health outcomes. Overall, synthetic trans fatty acid levels in the U.S. food supply have decreased dramatically since 2006 when the declaration of the amount of trans fatty acids on the Nutrition Facts label became mandatory. Consuming fat-free or low-fat milk and milk products and lean meats and poultry will reduce the intake of natural trans fatty acids. Because natural trans fatty acids are present in meat, milk, and milk products, their elimination is not recommended because this could have potential implications for nutrient adequacy.

--http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/sites/default/files/dietary_guidelines_for_americans/PolicyDoc.pdf

Rumenic acid, also known as bovinic acid, is a conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) found in the fat of ruminants and in dairy products. It is an omega-7 trans fat.

Vaccenic acid was discovered in 1928 in animal fats and butter. It is the main trans fatty acid isomer present in milk fat. Mammals convert it into rumenic acid, a conjugated linoleic acid, where it shows anticarcinogenic properties.

In lack of recognized evidence and scientific agreement, nutritional authorities consider all trans fats as equally harmful for health and recommend that consumption of trans fats be reduced to trace amounts.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans_fat

Comments:  There is no difference between "synthetic" and "natural" trans fatty acids.  They are naturally present in beef and milk.  I think that the "war on trans fats" is just part of the war on fat in general.  If you are going to ban trans fats then you have to ban beef and milk as well.  Maybe everyone should be forced to be vegetarians, as that would be healthier.

Harf vs Kerry

"State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf appeared to completely contradict her boss’ remarks on the possibility of the United States working with Iran to combat the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL or ISIS), adding more confusion to an issue already sparking questions among reporters.

Secretary of State John Kerry unequivocally stated on Monday that the United States is still open to working with Iran to combat ISIL.

However, just hours after Kerry made those remarks, State Department spokeswoman Harf stated the complete opposite.

Iran’s exclusion from international talks on ISIL thus far does not “mean that we are opposed to the idea of communicating to find out if they will come on board or under what circumstances or whether there is the possibility of a change,” Kerry was quoted as saying on Monday during a summit on ISIL in Paris.

“Having a channel of communication on one of the biggest issues in the world today is common sense,” Kerry said.

However, Harf stated the opposite during her daily press briefing, raising questions as to whether the administration has its policy prescriptions straight.

“To be very clear, we are not coordinating with, we do not want to coordinate with, we are not planning to coordinate with Iran in any way on Iraq, period,” Harf said. “So obviously, we’re open to having a discussion with them; we won’t always outline all of those discussions, but in terms of the contents of what those discussions might look like, we are not coordinating with them.”

--http://freebeacon.com/national-security/state-spox-walks-back-kerry-remarks-about-working-with-iran-on-isil/

Oh, we are splitting hairs here again. The US is not "coordinating" with Iran, but is "open to conversation" with them.  But what is the purpose of conversation if it won't potentially lead to coordinating?

Kerry promotes Islam

"Secretary of State John Kerry said Monday that to counter the ideology of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and its claim of a "religious foundation" for its actions, part of the strategy of the international coalition he is attempting to assemble must be to "begin to put real Islam out there." Kerry, in Paris for talks with various world leaders to build that coalition, further said that all of the Arab leaders he had spoken with earlier concurred about their focus on "real Islam and how important the Friday sermons are." The secretary of state recently said that ISIL's ideology "has nothing to do with Islam" and President Obama echoed these words, saying that "ISIL is not 'Islamic.'"
--http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/kerry-we-must-put-real-islam-out-there_805207.html

So Obama and Kerry are promoting Islam, but their own brand, where Obama is the prophet?  Sunnis, Shias, and Obamites.

New Airport in Dubai

Who Rules the Seven Seas?

What organizations control the oceans?

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was signed on December 10, 1982 in Montego Bay, Jamaica.  There is no office here, although there are various conventions taking place here such as the Second Global Conference on Land-Ocean Connections (GLOC-2) which took place October 2-4, 2013.  The US is not a member but is an observer state.

The International Seabed Authority (website: isa.org.jm)  is based in Kingston, Jamaica and controls mineral rights on the international seabeds.  It has an Assembly of all 160 member states, but apparently it has never formally met.  There are annual conferences in Jamaica.  It has a budget of about $6 million per year and a staff of about 35.

The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (website: itlos.org) is based in Hamburg, Germany and it has the power to settle disputes between party states that arise under the UNCLOS.  It has 21 judges and an additional 36 staff members.  It has a budget of about 21 million euros that is set by the Meeting of States Parties annually in New York.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration, located in the Hague, Netherlands arbitrates disputes between countries including maritime boundaries.

The Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (website) was established under the Law of the Sea Convention and is a small secretive body that meets at the United Nations Headquarters in New York to rule on extended seabed authority.

The International Maritime Organization (website: imo.org) is a United Nations agency headquartered in London, UK.  It maintains a regulatory framework for shipping. It has an Assembly which meets every two years and is headed by a Secretary-General. The affiliated World Maritime University is located in Malmo, Sweden.  The International Maritime Law Institute is headquartered in Malta, on the campus of the University of Malta.  The Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGS) came into force in 1977.

The Seabed Arms Control Treaty (formally the Treaty on the Prohibition of the Emplacement of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction on the Sea-Bed and the Ocean Floor and in the Subsoil thereof) entered into force in 1972 and currently has 94 member states.  It has review conferences held every five years in Geneva, Switzerland.

The Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR)  (website: ospar.org) was concluded in Paris in 1992 and updates the 1972 Oslo Dumping Convention on dumping waste at sea.  It has 15 signatory states, most of which are EU members, but it also has Iceland and Switzerland as signatories.  The OSPAR Commission Secretariat is located in London.

The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (website: ices.dk) is an intergovernmental science organization headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark with a staff of 51.

The International Sailing Federation (ISAF) is the world governing body for yacht racing and is headquartered in Southampton, UK.

The World Shipping Council is an industry trade group representing container shipping lines.  It is hedquartered in Washington, DC, US.

The Panama Maritime Authority (website: segumar.com) registers more than 20% of the world's ships by tonnage.  So, as a practical matter, most of the world's ships are regulated by Panamanian law.

Greece has the largest merchant marine fleet, owning about 16% of all the world's ships.

The largest navy is of course the US Navy, which is larger than the next 13 navies combined.  There is your answer.

Alternative History

From: http://ants-and-grasshoppers.blogspot.com/2014/09/the-freedom-to-secede-anywhere-in-world.html

One of the most interesting questions that can be asked in terms of a lively discussion is historically what would have happened if there was a CSA bordering a USA?

Here's our theories:

**  The importation of slaves was outlawed in the CSA Constitution of 1861, thus slavery would slowly have collapsed under its own weight at about the same time as mechanization comes to agriculture in the 1870s.

The freed slaves would become sharecroppers, or become a part of the workforce necessary in the manufacturing boom in the CSA or just migrate North to experience real prejudice like current history showed.
**  Because there was no Civil War and thus no Reconstruction, there was no Ku Klux Klan..  Then again the modern Klan we all know and hate was born in Illinois a Union state in the 1890s, and little to nothing to do with the original Klan formed and dissolved in the late 1860s in Tennessee

**  The territories west of the Mississippi eventually seek statehood, and must decide with which nation they will align themselves.  Arizona and New Mexico enter the Confederacy.

The CSA will want access to the Pacific Ocean so ultimately by diplomatic solution of military conflict, they would ultimately claim southern California.
** Southern manufacturing expands rapidly as investments pour into the CSA from wealthy Southerners, as well as some Northern and European investors.  This creates continued tensions from the USA but little they can do to stop the wealth expansion

**  CSA makes all its currency backed by gold and silver.

Southern banks are not regulated by the government and are allowed to coin their own money thus fractional banking is not allowed in the CSA and there will never be the creation of a Fed-like entity to control the money supply.
**  Oil is discovered in Texas, Oklahoma and the Gulf of Mexico and over time, the CSA becomes an exporter of petroleum products to the North, as Northern oil fields do not produce what they need. The CSA is entirely self-sufficient in oil and gas.

**  Coal is also produced and exported to the North from the vast fields of Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia (remember that there is no West Virginia if the CSA is allowed to peaceably exist)

Thus the South would be a major regional and global player in agriculture, silver mining, oil and now coal...   The US would be largely economically dependent on their former countrymen.
**  When World War I occurs, the CSA does not intercede militarily or economically at any point in the fighting since the CSA would not have lent money to one side vs another like the US did, and ultimately Germany wins..

Because of the Kaiser victory, there is no Versailles treaty, no war reparations, no ultimate German economic depression or economic hyper-inflation..

Thus no birth nor rise of the Nazi party, no Hitler, and no second World War (unless France provoked it) and no Holocaust killing 12 million people including 6 million Jews..   You'd still have people embrace Aryan superiority myths but there'd be no government sponsored 'Final Solution'.

The Fed's war on the states

Read: http://wallstreetonparade.com/2014/09/the-fed-just-imposed-financial-austerity-on-the-states/

"The Federal regulators adopted a new rule that requires the country’s largest banks – those with $250 billion or more in total assets – to hold an increased level of newly defined “high quality liquid assets” (HQLA) in order to meet a potential run on the bank during a credit crisis. In addition to U.S. Treasury securities and other instruments backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government (agency debt), the regulators have included some dubious instruments while shunning others with a higher safety profile.

Bizarrely, the Fed and its regulatory siblings included investment grade corporate bonds, the majority of which do not trade on an exchange, and more stunningly, stocks in the Russell 1000, as meeting the definition of high quality liquid assets, while excluding all municipal bonds – even general obligation municipal bonds from states with a far higher credit standing and safety profile than BBB-rated corporate bonds."

Comment:  In theory, the states and the Federal government are separate sovereigns with separate areas of expertise.  In practice, state sovereignty is threatening to the dominance of the Central State.  The Federal goverment has a huge advantage in this area.  It can print money from thin air while state governments can't.  So it is using its power in this area to strangle the states.

If you criticize the State Department you are sexist

The spokewomen for the State Department are Jen Psaki and Marie Harf. Obviously, if you criticize them at all you hate women.

Marie Harf vs Matt Lee on Ukraine

This is a paraphrase of the exchange not exactly what happened.

Lee:  So NATO is putting a rapid-reaction force in Ukraine.  Isn't that similar to what Russia is doing?
Harf:  Absolutely not.  They are two different things.  A rapid-reaction force is defensive.
Lee:  But Ukraine isn't a member of NATO, so the force isn't defensive.  Wouldn't Russia see it as provocative?
Harf:  You are buying into Russian propaganda.

Brother Louis

Completing the Mission is just a Buzzword

From our favorite channeler of Obama.  No video yet.

From: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2744088/I-don-t-know-means-State-Department-official-dismisses-completing-mission-against-ISIS-buzzword-one-week-Obama-admits-don-t-strategy-yet.html

Fox News Channel correspondent James Rosen asked [Marie] Harf on Thursday whether the administration believed the battle against ISIS would extend past January 2017, when President Barack Obama will leave office after eight years.

It's a question he had asked Harf's boss, Jen Psaki, in Tuesday's briefing. Psaki deflected it.

But Wednesday on CNN Deputy National Security Adviser Tony Blinken said that the 'sustained effort' required to cripple ISIS is 'going to take time, and it will probably go beyond even this administration to get to the point of defeat.'

'Now,' Rosen said Thursday, 'the administration has placed some kind of time-frame on this. So perhaps you could explain why this president, who has about 2-and-a-half years left on his term – a little less than that – feels he cannot complete this mission.'

A visibly annoyed Harf snapped back.

'Let's talk about what this mission means, because I think that's a catch-phrase,' she told Rosen.

'Obviously, we cannot kill or capture every terrorist in the world,' she said. 'That's not how – that's not how this ends. We've been clear about that. What we can do is take the fight to them. Take their leaders off the battlefield. Cut off their funding. Build partner networks on the ground. ... So we can take away their capability to attack the United States and significantly degrade that.'

Harf seemed to mirror a schizophrenic policy articulated a day earlier in Estonia by Obama himself, when he first said he aimed to 'destroy' ISIS but then vowed only to make it a more 'manageable' threat. 

Harf clung to Obama's second statement while ignoring the first.'That's how you fight terrorist organizations,' she said. 'Completing the mission is a term – I don't even know what that means when you're talking about terrorist organizations.

'It doesn't always fall into a nice little buzzword, as you used in your question,' she mocked Rosen. '"Complete the mission – why won't he complete the mission by the end of this term?"' 

She cited the decline of al-Qaeda in Yemen, the Pentagon's recent attack on al-Shabbab in Somalia, and the drone-strike killing of the terror leader Anwar al-Awlaki as examples of intermediate victories that should reassure Americans.

'The record, Rosen shot back, 'could also be seen as including Benghazi, the current chaos in Libya, [and] the rise of ISIS to become the kind of threat that it is – but that would be argumentative. I don't want to go there.'

M6 up 0.9%

M6 for August
M6	07/31/14	08/31/14
MZM	12,677.0	12,669.5
Public Debt	12,645.6	12,732.6
Fed Owned	-2,420.3	-2,435.9
G37 stocks	8,424.7	8,637.6
	31,327.0	31,603.8
		100.88%

M6 is my proprietary measurement of money supply.  We want it to go up at 0.5% per month so this is slightly high.  I changed the formula slightly to use MZM instead of M2, and to add more stocks to the list.  

I think this indicates that inflation is here, and the Fed should raise rates slightly.

Seven Year Cycle Theory

The Seven-Year Cycle Theory holds that recessions and/or stock market crashes occur every 7 years.  Sometimes these are a year off.  How does it look?

1938. The Recession of 1937-38 is only considered minor when compared to the Great Depression, but is otherwise among the worst recessions of the 20th century.
1945.  Mild post-war recession from Feb-Oct 1945 caused by 75% reduction in federal spending from 44% of GDP to 9%.  This is the only fiscal (as opposed to monetary) recession in the last 100 years. The unemployment rate "jumped" from 1% to 3%.
1948-1949.  Recession that doesn't fit the pattern. Called a "brief economic downturn".
1952.  Inflation was a concern so the Fed tightened monetary policy in 1952 causing interest rates to rise.  The increase in rates lead to a decrease in demand causing the recession of 1953-1954.  See Recession of 1953.
1959.  The Recession of 1958 was a sharp worldwide economic downturn in 1958, and the most significant one during the post-World War II boom between 1945 and 1970. Another primarily monetary recession occurred after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 1959, called the Recession of 1960-61.
1966.  The 1966 Crash. ("As Vietnam and Johnson’s Great Society social programs began to push up government spending, the Federal Reserve responded by tightening credit conditions early in 1966. After hitting new highs in January and March of that year, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index dropped about 22 percent over the next eight months. It then rallied to even higher heights by early 1968, as the spending-fueled economy drove corporate earnings upward. The 1966 market downturn did not trigger a recession and never became a factor in the 1966 or 1968 elections. It was soon forgotten." Source: The Forgettable Crash of 1966).
1969-1970. Recession that doesn't fit the pattern. Labeled "relatively mild".
1973.  A quadrupling of gas prices and soaring government spending led to stagflation, the 1973 Oil Crisis, 1973-1974 Stock Market Crash, and 1973-75 Recession.
1980.  The Fed raised interest rates from 11% to 20%  to combat inflation and there were two recession in 1980 and 1981-1982, collectively called the Early 1980s Recession.
1987. On Black Monday, October 19, 1987, the Dow crashed and lost 23% of its value in a single day.  Stock markets around the world likewise crashed.  However, no recession followed.
1990-1991.  Early 1990s recession that doesn't fit the pattern.  Labeled "brief".
1994. The 1994 Bond Market Carnage. ("The 1994 bond market massacre is remembered with horror by those who lived through it. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County." Source.)
2001.  The collapse of the Dot-Com bubble and September Eleven attacks brought a decade of growth to a halt in the Early 2000s Recession.
2008. Lehman Brothers collapsed, the stock market crashed and we were plunged into the worst recession that we have experienced as a nation since the Great Depression.  See Great Recession.
2015.  Stock market crash and subsequent recession?

Also read this:

"Jonathan Cahn, author of the mega-bestselling book “The Harbinger,” thinks he has figured it out.  In his sequel, called of “The Mystery of the Shemitah,” the messianic rabbi reveals the shocking discovery that the five great economic crashes of the last 40 years – 1973, 1980, 1987, 2001 and 2008 – have all occurred in Shemitah years – those God set apart as sabbath years.  in 2001 and 2008 they coincided precisely with the exact end of the Shemitah year on the Hebrew calendar day of Elul 29.  It’s no mystery that of “The Mystery of the Shemitah” comes out just before the next Shemitah cycle begins Sept. 25, 2014 – ending Sept. 13, 2015.  

Is Cahn predicting doom and gloom on Sept. 13, 2015? He’s careful to avoid a prediction, saying, “In the past, this ushered in the worst collapses in Wall Street history. What will it bring this time? Again, as before, the phenomenon does not have to manifest at the next convergence. But, at the same time, and again, it is wise to take note.”
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/09/holy-shemitah-u-s-history-repeating-itself/"

The Mystery of the Shemitah

 Does an ancient Jewish prophecy predict a stock market crash on September 11, 2015?

The year 2015 is a Sabbath (Shemitah) year.  It ends on September 13, 2015, which corresponds to Elul 29.  That day falls on a Sunday, and the previous market day is Friday, September 11.  The two previous days that ended Shemitah years and fell on Elul 29 were September 17, 2001 (when the Dow dropped 684 points or 7.1% when the markets reopened after 9/11) and September 29, 2008 (when the Dow dropped 778 points or 6.98%).

ISIS is not Islamic

"They act like they are operating in the name of Islam and that's just - nothing could be further from the truth".

Be careful what you send to grandma

Indira Singh

April 2014 Tragedies

I didn't write anything this year about the April curse, hoping that it would go away if it wasn't mentioned.  Well, no such luck, here are some more items for the list when I compile it next:

April 2, 2014 - Ft Hood, Texas.  A gunman killed 4, including himself, and wounded 16 others.  The community had previously been traumatized by a mass shooting event on November 5 2009, in which 13 soldiers were killed by a US Army Major, who just happened to be a Muslim.
April 13, 2014.  Michael Ruppert, an investigative journalist/conspiracy theorist dies of a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head, leading some people to think that he was murdered.
April 16, 2014 - A ferry sinks in South Korea, killing about 300 people, most of whom were high school students.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_MV_Sewol
April 18, 2014 - An avalanche on Mt. Everest kills 16 Sherpa guides.  The remaining Sherpas went on strike for the rest of the year.