The Wolf of Sunset Boulevard

Gold hits $1500

The current price on 8/7/19 is 1506.  It hasn't been this high since 2013.  It just hit $1400 on July 5.  The next stop, in about a month, is $1600.

Nomura sees Lehman parallels

Read the article: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-06/nomura-we-are-headed-second-lehman-shock-selloff

What I find interesting is the parallels they see between the 2008 events and the current situation.  They see two possible matches:

1. Parallels starting with January 2006 and December 2016.  So this is almost exactly 11 years, being just one month short.  Lehman happened in September 2008, and 11 years less one month later brings us to August 2019, the current month.

2. Parallels starting with September 2007 and August 2018.  This is exactly the same time frame, just following a different measurement.

I've been trying to find patterns.  I have mentioned the 11 year cycle before:
https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2016/12/11-year-cycle.html
https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2018/04/are-we-in-11-year-cycle.html
https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2018/11/eleven-year-cycle.html
https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2017/04/ten-or-eleven-year-financial-crisis.html

The last post mentioned a 10 or 11 year cycle, which I will repeat here:
September 22, 1966 - "To some extent, 1966 proved to be the first verification of the "financial instability hypothesis" that Minsky had been developing since the late 1950s." 
July 13, 1977 - financial crisis and blackout in New York City
September 23, 1998 - Long Term Capital Management crisis
September 15, 2008 - Lehman crisis
August 5, 2019 - Emerging financial crisis.  Despite the Fed dropping rates by 0.25% on July 31, the Dow drops 767 points on news of a trade war with China.

I would like to say that I predicted this, but my previous predictions focused around September 11, 2018, which obviously didn't happen.

Systemic Debt 2018

A number of years ago, I came up with a measurement I called "Systemic Debt".  I was trying to have my own calculation of what Laurence Kotlikoff was then claiming.  He was claiming a fiscal gap of over $200 trillion.  He hasn't updated his calculation recently and I think he overstated the number.

But there still might be something to my Systemic Debt Theory.  This theory states that the "system", which is mostly the Federal government, Federal Reserve and the Big Banks, have an implicit commitment to paying the systemic debt and not allow widespread defaults on it.  It is made up of 5 components which will be described later.

The last time I did this calculation was as of 12/31/2012 and I came up with $81,906 billion.

Here are the current numbers:

Category	Note	Amount
TCMDO	[1]	72,098
Intragov	[2]	5,872
FERS	[3]	7,982
SS	[4]	13,900
Medicare	[5]	5,300
		105,152

And here are the sources for those numbers:

[1]		https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCMDO as of the quarter beginning 2018-10-01.
[2]		https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current as of 12/31/18
[3]		https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2018/Executivesummary-2018.pdf
		as of 9/30/18
[4]		https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2019/tr2019.pdf
[5]		https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds/Downloads/TR2019.pdf

This does not include the unfunded portions of Medicare Parts B or D.

So this number is up 28% in 6 years.  This number can never-ever go down (except for a small amount), and it will go up about 3% per year.

Update: Laurence Kotlikoff is still talking about the fiscal gap and he says that the current number is $239.1 trillion.  Over half of this number, $142.2 trillion, is for amounts due after the year 2090.  I personally am not too concerned about what happens after 2090.

Cities on the Rise

I just finished my list of the 9 worst cities in the US.  What about the best?  Here is the list.  This comes from 25 Best Places to Live in the US, except I excluded cities with less than 1 million in their metro area.  So here is the list:

Salt Lake City
Dallas-Ft Worth TX
Charlotte NC
Washington DC
Nashville TN
San Jose-Santa Clara CA
Grand Rapids MI
Raleigh-Durham NC
Seattle
Portland
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley CA
Minneapolis-St Paul
Denver
Austin TX

Note that New York and LA are not on the list, nor are Miami, Atlanta, Houston, Phoenix, San Diego.  Are there any of these cities that really aren't quite as good as the others, so I can winnow the list slightly?  Are there any that should be here in addition to these?

Update:
Grand Rapids doesn't belong because it is too small.  It only has 200,000 people although there are 1 million in its metro area.
San Francisco should be kicked off because of the cost of living and the homeless problem (and drugs and poop) that it has.
Minneapolis-St Paul have problems.  They have abandoned homes, although not nearly as many as Detroit or Baltimore. There was riots in 1967.  I don't see an explanation for the massive loss in population.  And the recent population is partly based on immigration from Somali.    Rep. Ilhan Omar is from Minnesota.  Although this area isn't among the worst, it doesn't deserve to be among the best either.

So that leaves 11.  I would like to kick 2 more off the list to leave 9.

Update 2:
Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham are pretty close to each other so I am only going to choose one.  Charlotte is bigger and is the nation's fastest-growing area, so I am picking Charlotte. Goodbye Raleigh.

Dallas and Austin are only 200 miles apart, so I am arbitrarily choosing Austin.  It was ranked #1 on the above list.

So here is the revised list of the 9 best cities in the US, in no particular order.
Salt Lake City UT
Charlotte NC
Washington DC
Nasheville TN
San Jose-Santa Clara CA
Seattle WA
Portland
Denver CO
Austin TX

News Flash - Recessions reduce GDP growth

All of the projections I have seen from the CBO or Social Security assume that nominal GDP will increase about 4% forever, like clockwork.  Here is a chart of just the next 10 years.

2019	21,485	4.40%
2020	22,523	4.83%
2021	23,558	4.60%
2022	24,616	4.49%
2023	25,735	4.55%
2024	26,907	4.55%
2025	28,109	4.47%
2026	29,349	4.41%
2027	30,637	4.39%
2028	31,972	4.36%
2029	33,363	4.35%
2030	34,800	4.31%

However, nominal GDP growth slows down or even turns negative during a recession. Look at 2008 and 2009.

Year	Nominal GDP	Growth
2000	10,252
2001	10,582	3.22%
2002	10,936	3.35%
2003	11,458	4.77%
2004	12,214	6.60%
2005	13,037	6.74%
2006	13,815	5.97%
2007	14,452	4.61%
2008	14,713	1.81%
2009	14,449	-1.79%
2010	14,992	3.76%
2011	15,543	3.68%
2012	16,197	4.21%
2013	16,785	3.63%
2014	17,527	4.42%
2015	18,225	3.98%
2016	18,715	2.69%
2017	19,519	4.30%
2018	20,580	5.44%

Source https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

Of course we don't know exactly when recessions are going to hit and the time between them keeps getting longer, but I think every ten years going forward you should include a recession in the calculations.

Question: what effect does a recession have on government revenues (taxes)?

Google is building the city of tomorrow in Toronto

Sidewalk Labs
Sidewalk Toronto

The Fed just caused a recession

The Federal Reserve just dropped rates by 0.25% to 2.10%.  This just caused a recession which will show up in about 3 months.  The NBER will say that November 2019 was when the recession officially started.

But .. but.. but.. the Fed is trying to prevent a recession and extend the recovery.  Wrong.  First of all, there are banks (and old people) who depend on interest to live.  When you cut their income, they will have to cut expenses to make up for it.  Once someone starts to cut spending, it will ripple through the economy in a butterfly effect.

Second, expectations become reality.  The Fed has lots of data that we don't know about.  If they are worried, then Joe Blow on Main Street will worry too.

Third, they just caved to the bond vigilantes. The Fed has to be macho and take control of the situation.  Instead they are listening to the little whiny brats, who will never be happy.  Its like negotiating with terrorists.  Just say no.  The Fed has already shown that they have no spine.  Now they will be forced to cut rates again and again and again.  And it won't do any good.

The party is over.  The only "cure" now is massive government spending to get us out of the recession.  Oops, I am a year early.  But I guarantee that is where we will be headed in a year.

See also: Rate-Cuts Aren't Going To Be Insurance; They Are The Alarm Bells
Do rate cuts cause recessions?

Update:
The Dow reacts by dropping 333 points.  They wanted a 50-basis point rate cut.

The Detroit Race Riot of 1943

The summer of 1943 found the United States embroiled in the worst war in world history and the industrial might of Detroit was playing an integral part in winning it. Common during times of war, domestic hatreds and tensions grip entire communities, bringing out the best and worst even among allies. At a time when Americans were pulling together to defeat its enemies, societal problems of long standing chose a bad time to rear its ugly head in Detroit. In June of 1943 Detroit suffered one of the worst race riots in the country’s history, forcing America to take a long, hard introspective look at itself.
http://www.detroits-great-rebellion.com/Detroit---1943.html

Cities on the Decline

There are a few cities that used to be great but are on the decline.  To fit into this category I am looking for cities that had populations of at least 500,000 in 1950 and have decline at least 20% since then.  What cities match this?

Cleveland, Ohio had a peak population of 914,000 in 1950.  It had 397,000 in 2010 and is currently estimated to have 385,000 in 2017.

St Louis, Missouri had a peak population of 857,000 in 1950.  It had 319,000 in 2010.

Baltimore, Maryland had a peak population of 950,000 in 1950.  It had 621,000 in 2010 and is currently estimated to have 612,000 as of 2017.

Detroit, Michigan had a peak population of 1,850,000 in 1950.  It had 714,000 in 2010 and is currently estimated to have 659,000 as of 2018.

Are there any other cities that are similar?

Washington DC had a peak population of 802,000 in 1950.  It dropped to a low of 572,000 in 2000 before recovering and now as of 2017 has 694,000.  So it was following the same trends but reversed itself.

Chicago, IL, (just the city, not the metro area) had a peak population of 3,621,000 in 1950. It dropped to 2,696,000 as of 2010. Its current population is estimated at 2,716,000 as of 2017.

Philadelphia, PA, had a peak population of 2,072,000 in 1950.  It had 1,526,000 as of 2010 and 1,581,000 as of 2014, so it is starting to recover a little bit.

Cincinnati, OH had a peak population of 504,000 in 1950.  It had 297,000 in 2010 and 303,000 in 2018.

Buffalo, NY had a peak population of 580,000 in 1950.  It had 261,000 in 2010 and 257,000 in 2016.

New Orleans, LA had a peak population of 628,000 in 1960.  It had 485,000 in 2000.  The Hurricane Katrina hit in 2006 causing a mass evacuation.  It had 344,000 in 2010 and is estimated to have 391,000 in 2018.

Pittsburgh PA had a peak population of 677,000 in 1950.  It had 306,000 in 2010 and is currently estimated to have 301,000 in 2018.

Boston, MA had a peak population of 801,000 in 1950.  It had 621,000 in 2010 and is currently estimated to have 695,000 in 2018.  So it has recovered a bit.

Milwaukee, WI had a peak population of 741,000 in 1960.  It had 595,000 in 2010 and 592,000 in 2018.  This is right at 80%, so it isn't quite as bad as some of the others.

Minneapolis, MN had a peak population of 521,000 in 1950.  It had 383,000 in 2010 and 422,000 in 2017.  It has recovered a bit.

================================
I think that is the complete list.  14 Cities.  But take off the 5 that aren't as bad.  And so here is the list (in no particular order) of the 9 worst cities in the United States.

Cleveland
St Louis
Baltimore
Detroit
Chicago
Cincinnati
Buffalo
New Orleans
Pittsburgh

What is it about these 9 cities that is so toxic?  Sure, each of them has unique circumstances, but there must be some commonalities.  And you could object that the metro areas of most of these cities is still increasing, and the inhabitants just wanted to move to the suburbs.  But why is the core city so bad?  I will write some more articles exploring this question.

===========================
Here is an article on Buffalo:  https://www.city-journal.org/html/can-buffalo-ever-come-back-13050.html

Pittsburgh - https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pittsburghs-hill-district-dream_b_1669867

St Louis - What derailed growth in St Louis

Cincinnati is starting to recover.  See How Cincinnati Salvaged the Nation's Most Dangerous Neighborhood.  But also see Spike in homicides in Cincinnati has community, leaders baffled.  "Eight homicides in the past 10 days is hard to get your head around."  So Cincinnati doesn't get off the list yet.

The Scariest Place in America

 

Leakin Park.   A wilderness area right next to a high-crime ghetto is the perfect dumping ground for bodies.  79 bodies have been found here , although only 3 of them have been after 2012.  

Baltimore is the worst major city in America

In May, the New York Times Magazine ran a cover story called, “The Tragedy of Baltimore.” [See https://www.propublica.org/article/the-tragedy-of-baltimore]. The story details how, in the wake of the 2015 riots — or “uprising,” in the view of those who imagine the torching of a neighborhood CVS and the intentional sabotage of the firefighters’ equipment to be revolutionary actions — Baltimore went from bad to horrible: “nothing less than a failure of order and governance the likes of which few American cities have seen in years.” 
 By any measure of systemic urban collapse, Baltimore is, as Trump said, “very dangerous  and filthy.” Among the largest 30 American cities, Baltimore has the highest crime rate, and is a close second to Detroit for the highest rate of violent crime. But for murders, Baltimore is second to no other city, with more than 50 homicides per 100,000 people. That puts Charm City in the ranks of Jamaica, Venezuela and El Salvador in terms of lethality.
https://nypost.com/2019/07/28/trump-is-right-about-baltimore-and-the-democrats-know-it/

But in the years that followed, Baltimore, by most standards, became a worse place. In 2017, it recorded 342 murders — its highest per-capita rate ever, more than double Chicago’s, far higher than any other city of 500,000 or more residents and, astonishingly, a larger absolute number of killings than in New York, a city 14 times as populous.
https://www.propublica.org/article/the-tragedy-of-baltimore

The abandoned Astrodome

I recently did a blog post about Astroworld in Houston.  Here is a related video about the Astrodome, which is right across the highway.

Neom

Neom is a futuristic city planned in the northwest part of Saudi Arabia, including these features:

• 1. Flying Taxis: Scientists might take a flying taxi to work. “Driving is just for fun, no longer for transportation (e.g. driving Ferrari next to the coast with a nice view),” planning documents show.
• 2. Cloud Seeding: The desert won’t always feel like the desert. “Cloud seeding” could make it rain.
• 3. Robot Maids: Don’t worry about household chores. While scientists are at work, their homes would be cleaned by robot maids.
• 4. State-of-the-Art Medical Facilities: Scientists would work on a project to modify the human genome to make people stronger.
• 5. World Class Restaurants: There would be fine dining galore in a city with the “highest rate of Michelin-starred restaurants per inhabitant.”
• 6. Dinosaur Robots: Residents could visit a Jurassic Park-style island of robot reptiles.
• 7. Glow-in-the-Dark Sand: The crown prince wants a beach that glows in the dark, like the face of a watch.
• 8. Alcohol: Alcohol is banned in the rest of Saudi Arabia. But it likely won’t be here, say people familiar with the plan.
• 9. Robot Martial Arts: Robots would do more than just clean your house. They also could spar head to head in a “robo-cage fight,” one of many sports on offer.
• 10. Security: Cameras, drones and facial-recognition technology are planned to track everyone at all times.
• 11. Moon: A giant artificial moon would light up each night. One proposal suggests it could live-stream images from outer space, acting as an iconic landmark.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-26/mbs-goes-elon-musk-steroids-seeks-flying-cars-electric-dinosaurs-robot-maids-and

I hope it works, but it has some similarities to 3 other futuristic cities that we don't hear much about anymore:  Jazan Economic City, King Abdullah Economic City, and Masdar City.

Social Security Projections through 2095

The Social Security expenditures come from https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2019/lr6g8.html .

The Social Security trust fund will be depleted in 2035, so it isn't really possible to project anything after that.  But it is fun to make wild speculative guesses about what the future will be like.

Year	Soc Sec	GDP
2019	1,058	21,485
2020	1,118	22,523
2021	1,188	23,558
2022	1,265	24,616
2023	1,348	25,735
2024	1,438	26,907
2025	1,533	28,109
2026	1,634	29,349
2027	1,742	30,637
2028	1,857	31,972
2029	1,973	33,363
2030	2,093	34,800
2031	2,218	36,304
2032	2,349	37,873
2033	2,484	39,501
2034	2,622	41,199
2035	2,764	42,963
2036	2,911	44,793
2037	3,067	46,700
2038	3,230	48,689
2039	3,399	50,772
2040	3,575	52,965
2041	3,757	55,249
2042	3,946	57,640
2043	4,146	60,160
2044	4,357	62,794
2045	4,581	65,548
2046	4,819	68,433
2047	5,073	71,444
2048	5,345	74,580
2049	5,632	77,863
2050	5,939	81,297
2051	6,267	84,859
2052	6,617	88,573
2053	6,991	92,459
2054	7,388	96,499
2055	7,813	100,694
2056	8,265	105,057
2057	8,747	109,603
2058	9,260	114,336
2059	9,804	119,258
2060	10,379	124,381
2061	10,986	129,714
2062	11,627	135,263
2063	12,304	141,040
2064	13,018	147,056
2065	13,773	153,328
2066	14,573	159,869
2067	15,422	166,693
2068	16,321	173,816
2069	17,273	181,256
2070	18,282	189,023
2071	19,346	197,138
2072	20,465	205,621
2073	21,646	214,491
2074	22,892	223,773
2075	24,202	233,480
2076	25,572	243,631
2077	27,004	254,245
2078	28,497	265,335
2079	30,050	276,917
2080	31,674	289,008
2081	33,381	301,643
2082	35,181	314,834
2083	37,080	328,601
2084	39,086	342,964
2085	41,214	357,936
2086	43,486	373,534
2087	45,922	389,785
2088	48,537	406,707
2089	51,354	424,320
2090	54,389	442,655
2091	57,655	461,750
2092	61,160	481,628
2093	64,912	502,329
2094	68,916	523,883
2095	73,175	546,331

2019 Social Security Report

The new 2019 Social Security Report is out.  Key findings:

Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost is projected to exceed total income starting in 2020, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2035. Considered separately, the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2034 and the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2052. In last year’s report, the projected reserve depletion years were 2034 for OASDI, 2034 for OASI, and 2032 for DI.

This is great news.  SS is now solvent until 2035, which was better than 2034 when I last reported on this in 2017.

What about the 75-year deficit?
The open-group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $13.9 trillion in present value and is $0.7 trillion more than the measured level of $13.2 trillion a year ago.
In 2017, this number was $12.5 trillion and in 2016 it was $11.4 trillion.

What does the 75-year deficit number mean?  Not much, although the higher it is, the less likely that SS will be solvent in the long run.

What happens in 2035, when the trust fund runs out?
The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in 2034, at which time OASI income would be sufficient to pay 77 percent of OASI scheduled benefits.

Medicare Projected Expenditures Through 2093

This source of this is a zip file linked from here: https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds/index.html
The name of the specific spreadsheet is: "HI and SMI Incurred Expenditures as a Percentage of the Gross Domestic Product.xls".  I rounded everything to the nearest billion. This doesn't include Medicaid.  Here are the projected expenditures through 2093.  So in 2093, the GDP will be $502 trillion and total Medicare expenditures will be $32 trillion.  If we make it that far as a civilization. 

As a percent of GDP, this rises from 3.73% in 2019 to 4.08% in 2022, 5.11% in 2029, and 5.91% in 2039.  Then it increases very slowly to 6.0% in 2046, and hits 6.4% in 2072 and goes up to 6.48% in 2078 and stops increasing there.  I don't know why costs are rising so high now and will stop rising as much after 2040.

The Medicare trust fund will run out in 2026, so Medicare expenditures really should be capped at about 4% of GDP after that point.  We can't really project after 2026, so everything after that point is science fiction.  But I like big irrelevant numbers far out in the future so here you go.

	Total
Year	Medicare	GDP
2019	801	21,485
2020	858	22,523
2021	928	23,558
2022	1,004	24,616
2023	1,083	25,735
2024	1,169	26,907
2025	1,259	28,109
2026	1,354	29,349
2027	1,452	30,637
2028	1,591	31,972
2029	1,703	33,363
2030	1,818	34,800
2031	1,936	36,304
2032	2,058	37,873
2033	2,183	39,501
2034	2,313	41,199
2035	2,447	42,963
2036	2,585	44,793
2037	2,723	46,700
2038	2,860	48,689
2039	2,999	50,772
2040	3,142	52,965
2041	3,288	55,249
2042	3,436	57,640
2043	3,591	60,160
2044	3,753	62,794
2045	3,927	65,548
2046	4,108	68,433
2047	4,295	71,444
2048	4,488	74,580
2049	4,689	77,863
2050	4,901	81,297
2051	5,122	84,859
2052	5,351	88,573
2053	5,592	92,459
2054	5,847	96,499
2055	6,117	100,694
2056	6,402	105,057
2057	6,698	109,603
2058	7,005	114,336
2059	7,324	119,258
2060	7,658	124,381
2061	8,008	129,714
2062	8,374	135,263
2063	8,758	141,040
2064	9,162	147,056
2065	9,589	153,328
2066	10,032	159,869
2067	10,492	166,693
2068	10,973	173,816
2069	11,478	181,256
2070	12,008	189,023
2071	12,565	197,138
2072	13,150	205,621
2073	13,765	214,491
2074	14,403	223,773
2075	15,062	233,480
2076	15,744	243,631
2077	16,449	254,245
2078	17,183	265,335
2079	17,945	276,917
2080	18,738	289,008
2081	19,560	301,643
2082	20,408	314,834
2083	21,283	328,601
2084	22,189	342,964
2085	23,134	357,936
2086	24,120	373,534
2087	25,152	389,785
2088	26,237	406,707
2089	27,382	424,320
2090	28,584	442,655
2091	29,842	461,750
2092	31,158	481,628
2093	32,532	502,329

The Dominican Republican Deathtrap

https://nypost.com/2019/07/24/inside-the-reports-of-deaths-sickness-that-have-consumed-dominican-republic/
At least 36 Americans have died on the island since January 2018 — and many more have been plagued by “nightmare” illnesses, The Post has found. That death total — which includes everything from unexplained illnesses to drownings to cosmetic surgery gone bad — is even higher than reports have previously suggested.

This sounds like the plot of a bizarre horror film.  How many ways can someone die in the Dominican Republic?  You could drink poisoned liquor from the minibar.  Your could have respiratory failure because your room was just fumigated.  You could get food poisoning.  You could drown in the pool.  You could be the victim of a traffic accident.  You could fall off the boat at sea.  You could be viciously assaulted by a nice couple that you met at the pool.  You (female) could be raped by a resort employee.  You could die during cosmetic surgery.  The list goes on and on.

The case against a collapse in 2024

This comes from Karl Denninger:
The immediate problem we face is that by 2024 at present trends Medicare will not be able to pay. To try to pay will cause the federal deficit to roughly DOUBLE on an instant basis. We will have a roughly $5 trillion budget at that point BUT ONLY BE COLLECTING $3 TRILLION in revenues, and this assumes NO RECESSION! Ha! You're going to get one all right, and it's going to be monstrous; we MIGHT actually see $5 trillion spend on TWO trillion in revenue, or a roughly sixty percent deficit ratio. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=236403

I thought that Medicare was supposed to last until 2026 and even then the deficit would only be $50 billion per year, but I haven't read the most recent 2019 report available here:  https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds/index.html  So someone (me) should read this and summarize it.

And I thought that that US wouldn't see a $2 trillion deficit until 2036 based on current projections. And in that year revenue would be $7.7 trillion and expenditures $9.7 trillion so a $2 trillion deficit doesn't sound so bad with those numbers.  But I also thought that we wouldn't see a $1 trillion deficit until 2022 and with the new budget deal this will happen next year, in 2020.  So we need to wait and see what the new budget deal actually is, and see how CBO scores it, and then critique that.

I also haven't factored in a recession, since I am basically using CBO's numbers and extending them and they haven't factored in a recession.  I am basically assuming a 4% growth in nominal GDP forever. The thing to do would be to look at the last few recessions and see how much revenue dropped as a percent from the previous years.

So for now, I am going to assume that the Good Times will Roll and call Karl a kook.  But I will also take a look at it again in six months or so.

Everything is f*cked

See https://thehardestscience.com/2016/08/11/everything-is-fucked-the-syllabus/

In a much-discussed article at Slate, social psychologist Michael Inzlicht told a reporter, “Meta-analyses are f*cked” (Engber, 2016). What does it mean, in science, for something to be f*cked? F*cked needs to mean more than that something is complicated or must be undertaken with thought and care, as that would be trivially true of everything in science. In this class we will go a step further and say that something is f*cked if it presents hard conceptual challenges to which implementable, real-world solutions for working scientists are either not available or routinely ignored in practice.