Monday, October 8, 2012
Preliminary 2012 Numbers
Here are the numbers for FY 2012. They are only preliminary and may be revised. Revenue increased from 2011 and spending decreased, although not by much.
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/directors-blog?p=1546
Saturday, October 6, 2012
The strange Mormon holyland in Independence, Missouri
Source: http://bycommonconsent.com/2009/01/19/the-temple-lot/
One of the Mormon scriptures prophesied that the city of Zion would be built in Independence, Missouri (DC 57:1-3). "Behold, the place which is now called Independence is the center place; and a spot for the temple is lying westward, upon a lot which is not far from the courthouse." They purchased 63 acres in 1831 in Independence to fulfill this vision. Joseph Smith and Sidney Rignon dedicated it as a future location of a temple, and buried "marker" stones.
However, these plans came to a screeching halt in 1833 when the church leaders were tarred and feathered, their property confiscated and their 1200 followers forcibly removed from Jackson County. Most moved to adjacent Clay and Caldwell Counties. All Mormons, more than 10,000, were forced to leave Missouri in 1838 after losing the Mormon war, and moved to Nuavoo, Illinois.
Granville Hedrick was the leader of one the Mormon sects that did not go to Utah, and he supposedly received a vision that his group was to return to Independence, Missouri and build a temple. In 1867, the "Hedrickites" bought a "quit claim" deed to 2 strategic acres of land where the temple was to have been built. The group, known as "Church of Christ (Temple Lot)" with about 5,000 members, still owns the property. They started building the temple in 1937 but could not raise enough money and the excavation was filled in in 1946, and today it is a vacant lot with a few trees. They have a small church building on the property.
The RLDS church, which believes that Joseph Smith III was the true successor to his father, bought the entire 63 acres in 1887, and brought a lawsuit in 1891 against the Hedrickites, over the disputed 2 acres. They won at trial, but lost on appeal. They have built 3 buildings on their property: the Stone Church, the Auditorium, and their temple, which has a distinctive spire, and seats 1,600. The group is known today as Community of Christ and has about 250,000 members.
Community of Christ Temple in Independence, MO.
The Remnant Church split off from the RLDS in 2001, when the main group renamed itself the Community of Christ. Their main dispute was over the ordination of women but there were other issues as well. They believes that the President of the church must be a lineal descendant of Joseph Smith. Their headquarters is across the street from the Community of Christ temple in a former high school once attended by Harry S Truman. This group has 1000-2000 members.
The "official" Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Saints purchased land in 1904, and built a visitor's center in 1971 that looks like a Greek temple. They built a temple in Clay County in 2012 about 10 miles away. Apparently they didn't want to highlight the competition with the other groups.
LDS Temple in Clay County, Missouri.
There is also a UN Peace Plaza plaza across the street from the auditorium, and the Harry Truman Presidential Library is nearby.
I think the whole thing is very strange. Four different groups competing for the same land. It's as if some momentous event occurred there, but nothing ever has.
==============================
Update: There is yet a another group, the Cutlerites, located just a few blocks away, that insist that they are the "true" Mormon church.
==============================
Update 2: These seems to be sort of like rebuilding the Jewish temple in Jerusalem on the site of the Muslim Dome of the Rock. "Prior to the Second Coming of Jesus Christ, a magnificent edifice—the New Jerusalem Temple—will be erected on the location of the Temple Lot."
(http://www.ldschurchtemples.com/independence/)
==============================
Update 3: Here is part of the White Horse Prophecy:
"The coming of the Messiah among his people will be so natural that only those who see him will know that he has come, but he will come and give his laws unto Zion and minister unto his people. This will not be his coming in the clouds of Heaven to take vengeance on the wicked of the world.”
“The temple in Jackson county, Missouri, will be built in that generation. The saints will think that there will not be time to build it, but with all the help you can receive, you can put up a great temple quickly. You will have all the gold, silver and precious stones you need, for these things will only be for the beautifying of the temple. Also, all the skilled mechanics you want and the Ten Tribes of Israel will help build it. When you see this land bound with iron, you may look forward to Jackson county.”
--en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_of_Christ_(Temple_Lot)
Friday, October 5, 2012
The government creates inflation, banks don't
I think I posted something about a year ago on this same topic but I don't have time to look. In our modern system, money is the same as debt. When you borrow money from a bank, the bank actually creates the money to lend to you. However, this isn't inflationary in the long run because as you pay back the loan the debt is extinguished. If you don't pay it back, this is a different issue, but the interest the banks earn covers the bad debts (unless there are massive defaults).
The same is true when the Federal Reserve buys bonds on the open market. Yes they are creating the cash to buy the bonds with, but as the bonds are repaid, the money is destroyed. They are just exchanging one type of money - negotiable bonds - for another type - bearer notes (FRNs).
With the government, it is a different story. When the government deficit spends, it creates money. Surpluses have the opposite effect but they are very rare. To determine how much inflation is created, first measure the actual amount of money in the system. Take M2, add the national debt, and subtract the debt owned by the Fed.
I don't have time to run the actual numbers, but suppose that on 9/30/2011, M2 was 9 trillion, the nation debt was 15 trillion, and the amount of debt owned by the Fed was 1.5 trillion. Thus the total money supply is 22.5 trillion. Now, one year later, if M2 is 10 trillion, the national debt is 16 trillion, and debt owned by the Fed is 2 trillion, then the total is 24 trillion. The rate of monetary inflation would thus be 6.7%. It would be interesting to see what these numbers are.
===================
Update: I think that the Fed buying bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is fundamentally different than them buying US Treasury bonds. T-bonds are like cash, were exchanged for cash, and have the full faith and credit of the US. Bonds of Fannie and Freddie are backed up by dodgy assets. Yes Fannie and Freddie are owned by the US government, but their debt is backed up by mortgages, not the US government, except as a backstop. So rule #2: when the Fed buys up non-Treasury debt, it creates money. (This doesn't show up directly, but is included in the M2 amount).
=======================
Here are the numbers as of 9/30/2012:
M2 (as of 9/24/12): 10123.0
Nat. Debt (as of 9/28/12): 16066.2
Less Owned by Fed (as of 9/27/12): 1643.2
----------------------------
Total Money Supply: 24546
I am being very specific as to the dates because I want to use this as a benchmark.
This will be an interesting number to watch. I would apply the same rule-of-72 criteria to this. It should not increase by more than 7.2% per year, (thus doubling every 10 years) or else there is a danger of inflation getting out of control. So this number should grow by no more than 1768 bn/year (147 bn/mo).
This accounts for the two ways that money is created: 1) through deficit spending, and 2) through Fed purchasing non-Treasury assets. (There is also a third way that money is created, through private bank lending. This is included in the M2 total. But as mentioned above, money is destroyed when loans are paid off, so the net effect should be zero.). If you think about the national debt being just part of the growing money supply that is needed for a growing economy, then there is no problem, unless it increases excessively. The Fed's latest actions can be seen as being the same as a private bank making a new loan using agency debt as collateral.
=============================
As of 9/30/2011:
M2: 9500.2
Nat. Debt: 14790
Less Owned by Fed: 1663.6
--------------------------------
Total: 22627
Increase from 9/30/2011 to 9/30/2012: 1919
=============================
The GDP on 9/30/2011 was 15181.
The estimated GDP on 9/30/2012 is 15693. (This is a projection. The BEA will release the preliminary figures later this month.)
So the nominal GDP increased $512 bn.
The ratio of the increase in total money supply to increase in GDP is 3.75. This is a very disturbing number - it doesn't need to be more than 1.0. There is plenty of money, that is why the M2 Velocity is so low. The Fed is still trying to push on a string.
The same is true when the Federal Reserve buys bonds on the open market. Yes they are creating the cash to buy the bonds with, but as the bonds are repaid, the money is destroyed. They are just exchanging one type of money - negotiable bonds - for another type - bearer notes (FRNs).
With the government, it is a different story. When the government deficit spends, it creates money. Surpluses have the opposite effect but they are very rare. To determine how much inflation is created, first measure the actual amount of money in the system. Take M2, add the national debt, and subtract the debt owned by the Fed.
I don't have time to run the actual numbers, but suppose that on 9/30/2011, M2 was 9 trillion, the nation debt was 15 trillion, and the amount of debt owned by the Fed was 1.5 trillion. Thus the total money supply is 22.5 trillion. Now, one year later, if M2 is 10 trillion, the national debt is 16 trillion, and debt owned by the Fed is 2 trillion, then the total is 24 trillion. The rate of monetary inflation would thus be 6.7%. It would be interesting to see what these numbers are.
===================
Update: I think that the Fed buying bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is fundamentally different than them buying US Treasury bonds. T-bonds are like cash, were exchanged for cash, and have the full faith and credit of the US. Bonds of Fannie and Freddie are backed up by dodgy assets. Yes Fannie and Freddie are owned by the US government, but their debt is backed up by mortgages, not the US government, except as a backstop. So rule #2: when the Fed buys up non-Treasury debt, it creates money. (This doesn't show up directly, but is included in the M2 amount).
=======================
Here are the numbers as of 9/30/2012:
M2 (as of 9/24/12): 10123.0
Nat. Debt (as of 9/28/12): 16066.2
Less Owned by Fed (as of 9/27/12): 1643.2
----------------------------
Total Money Supply: 24546
I am being very specific as to the dates because I want to use this as a benchmark.
This will be an interesting number to watch. I would apply the same rule-of-72 criteria to this. It should not increase by more than 7.2% per year, (thus doubling every 10 years) or else there is a danger of inflation getting out of control. So this number should grow by no more than 1768 bn/year (147 bn/mo).
This accounts for the two ways that money is created: 1) through deficit spending, and 2) through Fed purchasing non-Treasury assets. (There is also a third way that money is created, through private bank lending. This is included in the M2 total. But as mentioned above, money is destroyed when loans are paid off, so the net effect should be zero.). If you think about the national debt being just part of the growing money supply that is needed for a growing economy, then there is no problem, unless it increases excessively. The Fed's latest actions can be seen as being the same as a private bank making a new loan using agency debt as collateral.
=============================
As of 9/30/2011:
M2: 9500.2
Nat. Debt: 14790
Less Owned by Fed: 1663.6
--------------------------------
Total: 22627
Increase from 9/30/2011 to 9/30/2012: 1919
=============================
The GDP on 9/30/2011 was 15181.
The estimated GDP on 9/30/2012 is 15693. (This is a projection. The BEA will release the preliminary figures later this month.)
So the nominal GDP increased $512 bn.
The ratio of the increase in total money supply to increase in GDP is 3.75. This is a very disturbing number - it doesn't need to be more than 1.0. There is plenty of money, that is why the M2 Velocity is so low. The Fed is still trying to push on a string.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Chang
Zhou
州 zhou can mean "city". It can also mean "state"
沧州 Cangzhou
常州 Changzhou
德州 (de-zhou) Texas
德州 Dezhou, Shandong Province
福州 Fuzhou
广州 Guangzhou, the Eastern city
贵州 Guizhou, a province in the Southwestern part of China
杭州 Hangzhou
本州 Honshu, the largest island in Japan
湖州 Huzhou
惠州 Huizhou
加州 Jia-zhou, California
九州 Kyushu, island in Japan
兰州 Lanzhou
柳州 Liuzhou (Guangxi province)
满州 Manzhou, Manchuria
泉州 Quanzhou
钦州 Qinzhou
神州 Shen-zou, the Divine Continent, China
苏州 Suzhou
泰州 Taizhou
温州 Wenzhou (Zhejiang province)
梧州 Wuzhou
徐州 Xuzhou (in Jiangsu province)
扬州 Yangzhou
漳州 Zhangzhou
郑州 Zhengzhou
株洲 Zhuzhou. (Note that this has a different character for "zhou")
沧州 Cangzhou
常州 Changzhou
德州 (de-zhou) Texas
德州 Dezhou, Shandong Province
福州 Fuzhou
广州 Guangzhou, the Eastern city
贵州 Guizhou, a province in the Southwestern part of China
杭州 Hangzhou
本州 Honshu, the largest island in Japan
湖州 Huzhou
惠州 Huizhou
加州 Jia-zhou, California
九州 Kyushu, island in Japan
兰州 Lanzhou
柳州 Liuzhou (Guangxi province)
满州 Manzhou, Manchuria
泉州 Quanzhou
钦州 Qinzhou
神州 Shen-zou, the Divine Continent, China
苏州 Suzhou
泰州 Taizhou
温州 Wenzhou (Zhejiang province)
梧州 Wuzhou
徐州 Xuzhou (in Jiangsu province)
扬州 Yangzhou
漳州 Zhangzhou
郑州 Zhengzhou
株洲 Zhuzhou. (Note that this has a different character for "zhou")
Home page
首 shou = chief
页 ye = page
首页 = home page
广 guang = wide, numerous
场 chang = courtyard, open space
广场 guang-chang = public square, open forum
东 dong = east
广东 Guangdong = Guangdong province, China. "The Wide East"
莞 guan = district
东莞 Dongguan, the "East District"
州 zhou = prefecture or city
广州 Guangzhou, the Eastern City
北 bei = north
京 jing = capital. This is also the abbreviation for Beijing.
北京 Beijing, the "north capital"
西 xi = west
安 an = peaceful, calm, quiet
西安 Xi'an = the capital of Shaanxi province. "The peaceful west"
南 nan = south
南京 Nanjing, the "south capital"
南美 nan-mei = South America
昌 chang = prosperous
南 昌 Nanchang, the "prosperous south"
上 shang = above, on top of
海 hai = sea, ocean
上海 Shanghai, Upon-the-Sea
沪 hu. This is the official abbreviation for Shanghai.
页 ye = page
首页 = home page
广 guang = wide, numerous
场 chang = courtyard, open space
广场 guang-chang = public square, open forum
东 dong = east
广东 Guangdong = Guangdong province, China. "The Wide East"
莞 guan = district
东莞 Dongguan, the "East District"
州 zhou = prefecture or city
广州 Guangzhou, the Eastern City
北 bei = north
京 jing = capital. This is also the abbreviation for Beijing.
北京 Beijing, the "north capital"
西 xi = west
安 an = peaceful, calm, quiet
西安 Xi'an = the capital of Shaanxi province. "The peaceful west"
南 nan = south
南京 Nanjing, the "south capital"
南美 nan-mei = South America
昌 chang = prosperous
南 昌 Nanchang, the "prosperous south"
上 shang = above, on top of
海 hai = sea, ocean
上海 Shanghai, Upon-the-Sea
沪 hu. This is the official abbreviation for Shanghai.
Renminbi
人 (ren) means man or person
民 (min) means the people
人民币 (ren-min-bi) thus means "people's currency". I'm not sure why the 人 is needed.
民 (min) means the people
人民币 (ren-min-bi) thus means "people's currency". I'm not sure why the 人 is needed.
Macau and Australia
澳 (au) means "deep harbor" and is the abbreviation for either Australia or Macau, because of the sound. It is a similar but different character than 港, the harbor that refers to Hong Kong.
门 (men) means "door, or gate"
門 (men) is the same thing, more formal.
澳門 (au-men) means Macau. (The gateway to the harbor)
港澳 (gang-au) means both Hong Kong and Macau.
澳門圓 (au-men-yuan) is the Macanese pataca.
洲 (zhou) is continent or island.
澳洲 (au-zhou) means Australia, the continent
大 (da) means "big"
利 (li) means "benefit or profit"
亚 (ya) means "Asia" or "second" or "inferior"
澳大利亚 (au-da-li-ya) is "Australia". The audaliya is literally, the big profitable harbor in Asia.
澳大利亚元 is the Australian dollar
门 (men) means "door, or gate"
門 (men) is the same thing, more formal.
澳門 (au-men) means Macau. (The gateway to the harbor)
港澳 (gang-au) means both Hong Kong and Macau.
澳門圓 (au-men-yuan) is the Macanese pataca.
洲 (zhou) is continent or island.
澳洲 (au-zhou) means Australia, the continent
大 (da) means "big"
利 (li) means "benefit or profit"
亚 (ya) means "Asia" or "second" or "inferior"
澳大利亚 (au-da-li-ya) is "Australia". The audaliya is literally, the big profitable harbor in Asia.
澳大利亚元 is the Australian dollar
Yuan and Money
元 (yuan) means "first" or "dollar". By itself, it refers to the Chinese currency, which also has the symbol "¥" (same as the Japanese yen).
圆 (yuan) means "circle" and can also refer to the Chinese currency.
圓 (yuan) is an alternate form.
美 (mei) means "fine, pretty or beautiful", but because it sounds like the first part of "America", it can also mean "American".
美元 (mei-yuan) means the US dollar or the "beautiful dollar". It has a very positive meaning.
美国 (mei-guo) means the United States of America
日 (ri) means "sun" and also Japanese
日元 (ri-yuan) is the Japanese yen ("¥")
日圆 also means the yen.
日文 (ri-wen) is the Japanese written language
币 (bi) means "money, currency"
幣 (bi) is an alternate form.
日幣 (ri-bi) also means Japanese yen
港币 (gang-bi) means the Hong Kong (harbor) dollar (currency) - $HK
港圆 (gang-yuan) also means the Hong Kong dollar.
台 (tai) means "desk, platform", and by itself means "Taiwanese" because of the sound.
台币 (tai-bi) means the Taiwan currency, the new Taiwan dollar. - $NT
欧 (ou) means Europe
欧元 (ou-yuan) means the European yuan, i.e. the Euro "€"
韩 (han) means Korea
韩圆 (han-yuan) means the Korean won
韩国 (han-guo) means the country of Korea. I'm sure the North Koreans would object.
中圆 (zhong-yuan) also means the Chinese yuan, if it needs to be distinguished from other currencies
镑 (bang) is the Pound Sterling.
英 (ying) means "brave". It also means "English" because of the sound.
英镑 (ying-bang) is the British pound sterling. The ying part isn't really needed because there aren't any other currencies named pound (bang).
金 (jin) means "metal, money, gold". This is the real stuff that can't be depreciated away.
金镑 (jin-bang) is the British gold sterling. It doesn't exist anymore.
英文 (ying-wen) is the English (written) language.
圆 (yuan) means "circle" and can also refer to the Chinese currency.
圓 (yuan) is an alternate form.
美 (mei) means "fine, pretty or beautiful", but because it sounds like the first part of "America", it can also mean "American".
美元 (mei-yuan) means the US dollar or the "beautiful dollar". It has a very positive meaning.
美国 (mei-guo) means the United States of America
日 (ri) means "sun" and also Japanese
日元 (ri-yuan) is the Japanese yen ("¥")
日圆 also means the yen.
日文 (ri-wen) is the Japanese written language
币 (bi) means "money, currency"
幣 (bi) is an alternate form.
日幣 (ri-bi) also means Japanese yen
港币 (gang-bi) means the Hong Kong (harbor) dollar (currency) - $HK
港圆 (gang-yuan) also means the Hong Kong dollar.
台 (tai) means "desk, platform", and by itself means "Taiwanese" because of the sound.
台币 (tai-bi) means the Taiwan currency, the new Taiwan dollar. - $NT
欧 (ou) means Europe
欧元 (ou-yuan) means the European yuan, i.e. the Euro "€"
韩 (han) means Korea
韩圆 (han-yuan) means the Korean won
韩国 (han-guo) means the country of Korea. I'm sure the North Koreans would object.
中圆 (zhong-yuan) also means the Chinese yuan, if it needs to be distinguished from other currencies
镑 (bang) is the Pound Sterling.
英 (ying) means "brave". It also means "English" because of the sound.
英镑 (ying-bang) is the British pound sterling. The ying part isn't really needed because there aren't any other currencies named pound (bang).
金 (jin) means "metal, money, gold". This is the real stuff that can't be depreciated away.
金镑 (jin-bang) is the British gold sterling. It doesn't exist anymore.
英文 (ying-wen) is the English (written) language.
Xianggang
禾 (he) means "cereal, grain"
甘 (gan) means "sweet"
香 (xiang) combines the two and means "sweet food", also "fragrant, savory, appetizing, scented"
=================================================================
廾 (gong) means "hands joined", or "pair of hands"
十 (shi) means "ten"
廿 (nian) means "twenty". It is ten doubled.
共 (gong) means "twenty pairs of hands". Also "all, all together, common, general"
邑 (yi) means "city"
巷 (xiang) means "lane,alley" and is a city area open to all
===========================================================
水 (shui) means "water, river"
港 (gang) means "harbor". It combines water and lane.
=========================================================
香港 (xiang-gang) thus means "fragrant harbor" and is the Chinese name of Hong Kong. This is so commonly used that the second character by itself ("harbor") also refers to Hong Kong.
甘 (gan) means "sweet"
香 (xiang) combines the two and means "sweet food", also "fragrant, savory, appetizing, scented"
=================================================================
廾 (gong) means "hands joined", or "pair of hands"
十 (shi) means "ten"
廿 (nian) means "twenty". It is ten doubled.
共 (gong) means "twenty pairs of hands". Also "all, all together, common, general"
邑 (yi) means "city"
巷 (xiang) means "lane,alley" and is a city area open to all
===========================================================
水 (shui) means "water, river"
港 (gang) means "harbor". It combines water and lane.
=========================================================
香港 (xiang-gang) thus means "fragrant harbor" and is the Chinese name of Hong Kong. This is so commonly used that the second character by itself ("harbor") also refers to Hong Kong.
Zhongguo
Chinese is becoming very important and we will have to learn some of it. So here are the first characters to learn. I am making them big so they are easier to see.
囗 (wei) is an enclosure.
中 (zhong) is a line bisecting an enclosure.
或 (huo) means "region"
國 (guo) means "country", or "nation".
玉 (yu) means "Jade".
国 (guo) is an alternate form which also means country.
中国 (zhong-guo) means "China". Also 中國
文 (wen) means "language, writing, or country".
中文 (zhong-wen) means "Chinese language". Zhongwen.com is a website about Chinese characters.
中 by itself also means "Chinese".
==============================
See http://shanghaiist.com/2010/06/28/_is_now_a_web_domain_name.php.
"Over the weekend, the new .中国 and .中國 (dot.zhongguo or .China) domain names were approved by ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers)!"
囗 (wei) is an enclosure.
中 (zhong) is a line bisecting an enclosure.
或 (huo) means "region"
國 (guo) means "country", or "nation".
玉 (yu) means "Jade".
国 (guo) is an alternate form which also means country.
中国 (zhong-guo) means "China". Also 中國
文 (wen) means "language, writing, or country".
中文 (zhong-wen) means "Chinese language". Zhongwen.com is a website about Chinese characters.
中 by itself also means "Chinese".
==============================
See http://shanghaiist.com/2010/06/28/_is_now_a_web_domain_name.php.
"Over the weekend, the new .中国 and .中國 (dot.zhongguo or .China) domain names were approved by ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers)!"
Who is Shintaro Ishihara?
He is the 80-year old governor of Tokyo, the most powerful city on Earth. He wants to bring back the good old days when Japan ruled the Pacific. He denies that the Rape of Nanking ever occurred.
He wants to build a fort on the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands just to provoke a fight with China. The islands were captured by the US during WWII and administered by them, along with Okinawa, until 1972, and since then have been administered by Japan, but they are claimed by China and Taiwan. Nobody really cared about the islands until potential oil and gas reserves were found there in 1969. The US may be bound by treaty to defend Japan if China attempts to occupy the islands. The wisest course of action is just to preserve the status quo, make them wildlife refuges, and leave the dispute for future generations.
Both China and Japan may be using the dispute to distract their citizens from their economic woes.
China funds elite military college in Zimbabwe
Autocratic Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe has open his country's first military university, the National Defence College, funded to the tune of $98 million by mortgaging diamonds to China. Mugabe is famously paranoid about Iraq-style Western-led regime change in Zimbabwe and justified the vast expense of the college on national security grounds.
The $98 million used to fund the institution was loaned to Zimbabwe, which has a $400 million budget deficit, by China in 2011 at a 2% interest. Anjin, a joint Zimbabwean-Chinese venture, is mining diamonds to facilitate repayments. The diamond industry in Zimbabwe has been strongly criticised by human rights groups, who have catalogued "serious abuses by police and private security guards patrolling the joint venture territory, including setting dogs on traditional artisanal miners in the mining areas and using excessive force to clear the fields of local miners whom they accuse of illegally mining diamonds".
--http://shanghaiist.com/2012/10/04/chinese-funded_zimbabwean_elite_mil.php
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
World's brightest minds chase the Chinese Dream
China actively took up the issue of attracting highly skilled professionals, scientists and managers to the country. Foreigners are offered attractive conditions, and observers are already talking of this trend as the "brain drain" into the PRC. China that does not shy away from learning from other countries intends to create the "Chinese dream".
Yanguo also points out that, in contrast to the "American Dream", the time has come for the "Chinese Dream", which may look attractive to the best talent from around the world. Due to globalization and the rapid development of China, the country is willing to invest in the importation of foreign professional expertise, and create favorable conditions for foreigners qualified for the job.
The Chinese economy has been experiencing an impressive economic growth. All this was made possible not least due to the deliberate policy of attracting to the country talented scientists, technicians and managers.
--http://english.pravda.ru/business/companies/03-10-2012/122332-china_brain_drain-0/
Tianjin is the Philadelphia of China
Philadelphia has about 6 million people in its metro area, and is the 5th largest metro area in the country. It was the first capital of the US before it was moved to Washington, 139 miles away. Amtrak connects the cities. It has a stock exchange and is the headquarters to several Fortune 500 companies. The Comcast Center was completed in 2008 and is 297m tall. Philadelphia is an important medical research center, and many pharmaceutical companies operate there including: GlaxoSmithKline, AstaZeneca, Wyeth, Merck and Johnson and Johnson.
Tianjin has 4.3 million in its urbanized area, and 10.3 million in its metro area (another source says 6.6 million), making it the 6th most populous city. It is 87 miles from Beijing, and high-speed rail connects them. Several supertall buildings are under construction, and one of them (Goldin Finance) is almost 600m. "Tianjin pillar industries comprise of electronic information technology, automotive, bio-tech and pharmaceuticals, metallurgy and petrochemicals industries."
=======================================
Update: Wouldn't Baltimore be a better comparison? Baltimore is the sister city to Washington like Tianjin is to Beijing. Although Baltimore is depressed and Tianjin is booming. So I am sticking with Philadelphia as a comparison.
Tianjin has 4.3 million in its urbanized area, and 10.3 million in its metro area (another source says 6.6 million), making it the 6th most populous city. It is 87 miles from Beijing, and high-speed rail connects them. Several supertall buildings are under construction, and one of them (Goldin Finance) is almost 600m. "Tianjin pillar industries comprise of electronic information technology, automotive, bio-tech and pharmaceuticals, metallurgy and petrochemicals industries."
=======================================
Update: Wouldn't Baltimore be a better comparison? Baltimore is the sister city to Washington like Tianjin is to Beijing. Although Baltimore is depressed and Tianjin is booming. So I am sticking with Philadelphia as a comparison.
Top 100 Cities - October
I promise not to do this more than once per month. This is my latest list - very US and Chinese-centric. There are a lot of Chinese cities here and maybe they are ranked too high, maybe not. I think their GDP is understated. A lot of European cities got bumped because they just aren't that special in terms of large population, growing GDP, and skyline. The number in parenthesis is the number on the prior 450 list.
=====================
Here are the cities that got bumped from the top 100 and their prior rank, with some thoughts.
- Tokyo (1) [東京]
- New York (2) [纽约]
- London (4) [伦敦]
- Seoul-Incheon (16) [汉城]
- Sao Paulo (17) [圣保罗]
- Shanghai (7) [上海]
- Paris (5) [巴黎]
- Los Angeles County (3) [洛杉矶]
- Moscow (18) [莫斯克]
- Chicago (8) [芝加哥]
- Beijing (15) [北京]
- Dallas-Ft. Worth (19) [达拉斯]
- Hong Kong (9) [香港]
- Houston (13) [休斯顿]
- Washington (ex. Baltimore) (11) [华盛顿]
- Shenzhen (54) [深圳]
- Philadelphia (14) [费城]
- Mexico City (31) [墨西哥城]
- Osaka (12) [大阪]
- Guangzhou-Foshan (30) [广州]
- Miami (27) [迈阿密]
- Buenos Aires (33) [好空]
- Atlanta (26) [亚特兰大]
- Boston (21) [波士顿]
- Mumbai (88) [孟买]
- San Francisco (ex. San Jose) (6) [旧金山]
- Taipei, Taiwan (49) [台北市]
- Dongguan (158) [东莞]
- Tianjin (43) [天津]
- Manila (112) [马尼拉]
- Chongqing (50) [ 重庆]
- Rio de Janeiro (36) [里约热内卢]
- Singapore (25) [新加坡]
- Riverside-San Bernadino (-) [河边]
- Wuhan, Hubei (99) [武汉]
- Detroit (41) [底特律]
- Jakarta (100) [雅加达]
- Hangzhou, Zhejiang (77) [杭州]
- Istanbul (34) [伊斯坦布尔]
- Shenyang, Liaoning (119) [沈阳]
- Sydney (24) [悉尼]
- Phoenix (35) [菲尼克斯]
- Chengdu, Sichuan (115) [成都]
- Toronto (23) [多伦多]
- Melbourne (29) [墨尔本]
- Bangkok (79) [曼谷]
- Xi'an, Shaanxi (159) [西安]
- Madrid (37) [马德里]
- Harbin, Heilongjiang (163) [ 哈尔滨]
- Seattle (32) [西雅图]
- Suzhou, Jiangsu (160) [苏州]
- Delhi (121)
- Nanjing, Jiangsu (92) [南京]
- Minneapolis-St. Paul (39)
- Cairo (138)
- Dalian, Liaoning (116)
- San Diego (47)
- Nagoya (20)
- Montreal (40)
- Karachi (139)
- Changchun, Jilin (204)
- Orange County, CA (-)
- Kuala Lumpur (124)
- Kunming, Yunnan (246)
- Tampa (57)
- Wuxi, Jiangsu (78)
- Kolkota (140)
- Ruhr (10)
- Taiyuan, Shanxi (249)
- Changsha, Hunan (168) ("Chainsaw")
- Barcelona (45)
- Berlin (56)
- Dhaka (157)
- Jinan, Shandong (162)
- Lagos (143)
- Xiamen, Fujian (135)
- Riyadh (51)
- Ningbo, Zhejiang (161)
- Doha (55)
- St. Louis (62)
- Qingdao, Shandong (84)
- Baltimore (71)
- Changzhou, Jiangsu (164)
- Kuwait City (46)
- Denver-Aurora (ex. Boulder) (48)
- Hefei, Anhui (165)
- Brasilia (80)
- Pittsburgh (69)
- Xuzhou, Jiangsu (167)
- Portland (63)
- Jeddah (110)
- Fuzhou, Fujian (169)
- San Antonio, TX (114)
- Tangshan, Hebei (171)
- Luanda (166)
- Tel Aviv-Jaffa (76)
- Nanchang, Jiangxi (205)
- Ankara, Turkey (170)
- Kaohsiung, Taiwan (146)
- Sacramento (96)
=====================
Here are the cities that got bumped from the top 100 and their prior rank, with some thoughts.
- Randstad (22). This is the conurbation in the Netherlands including Amsterdam, Rotterdam, the Hague, and many other cities. These cities are not contiguous. The trend is to focus on individual cities and to include others only if they are clearly part of the same metropolitan area. So all of these cities should be considered separately. Amsterdam has 1.4 million people in its Larger Urban Zone, and Rotterdam has 1.2 million.
- Milan (28). The Greater Milan Area has as many as 7.4 million people. It has about 3.1 million in its LUZ. This got hit because it is in Europe, has no notable skyscrapers and is not growing.
- Abu Dhabi (38). This was removed because of its small population (621,000).
- Frankfurt (42). Has 2.5 million people.
- Brussels (44). Has 1.8 million.
- Munich (52). 2.5 million
- Naples (53) 2.3 million.
- Brisbane (58).
- Oslo (59).
- Cleveland (60)
- Cincinnati (61)
- Lisbon (64). Luanda took its place.
- Vancouver (65). Maybe this was unfairly bumped. It has the 32nd best skyline in the world, although there are cities with better rankings also not on this list.
- Rome (66).
- Stockholm (67).
- Perth (68)
- Copenhagen (70)
- Sapporo (72)
- Fukuoka (73)
- Charlotte (74)
- Hamburg (75)
- Kansas City (81)
- Indianapolis (82)
- Orlando (83)
- Dubai/Sharjah (85)
- Birmingham, UK (86)
- Vienna (87)
- Monterrey (89)
- Salt Lake City (90)
- Zurich (91)
- Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC (93). Should be split into Raleigh and Durham/Chapel Hill.
- Athens (94)
- Santiago (95)
- Columbus, OH (97)
- Las Vegas (98)
- Zhengzhou, Henan
- Zhuhai, Guangdong
- Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang AR
- Shijiazhuang, Hebei
- Jiangmen, Guangdong
- Zhongshan, Guangdong
- Haikou, Hainan
- Wenzhou, Zhejiang
- Taichung, Taiwan
- Shantou, Guangdong
Top 50 Non-US, Non-Chinese Cities
This is weighted heavily towards population, but other factors such as GDP, political power, dynamicism and prior rankings also play a part.
- Tokyo
- London
- Seoul-Incheon
- Sao Paulo
- Paris
- Moscow
- Mexico City
- Osaka
- Buenos Aires
- Mumbai
- Manila
- Rio de Janeiro
- Singapore
- Jakarta
- Istanbul
- Sydney
- Toronto
- Melbourne
- Bangkok
- Madrid
- Delhi
- Cairo
- Nagoya
- Montreal
- Karachi
- Kuala Lumpur
- Kolkota
- Ruhr
- Barcelona
- Berlin
- Dhaka
- Lagos
- Riyadh
- Doha
- Kuwait City
- Brasilia
- Jeddah
- Luanda
- Tel Aviv-Jaffa
- Ankara
- Lima
- Brussels
- Belo Horizonte
- Santiago
- Bangalore
- Rome
- Frankfurt
- Milan
- Johannesburg
- Hamburg
Top 40 Cities in China
See also my previous list of the Top 60 cities in China. Population is the biggest factor here, but not the only factor.
- Shanghai
- Beijing
- Hong Kong
- Shenzhen
- Guangzhou-Foshan
- Taipei, Taiwan
- Dongguan
- Tianjin
- Chongqing
- Wuhan, Hubei
- Hangzhou, Zhejiang
- Shenyang, Liaoning
- Chengdu, Sichuan
- Xi'an, Shaanxi
- Harbin, Heilongjiang
- Suzhou, Jiangsu
- Nanjing, Jiangsu
- Dalian, Liaoning
- Changchun, Jilin
- Kunming, Yunnan
- Wuxi, Jiangsu
- Taiyuan, Shanxi
- Changsha, Hunan
- Jinan, Shandong
- Xiamen, Fujian
- Ningbo, Zhejiang
- Qingdao, Shandong
- Changzhou, Jiangsu
- Hefei, Anhui
- Xuzhou, Jiangsu
- Fuzhou, Fujian
- Tangshan, Hebei
- Macau
- Nanchang, Jiangxi
- Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Zhuhai, Guangdong
- Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang AR
- Shijiazhuang, Hebei
- Zhengzhou, Henan
- Taichung, Taiwan
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
National Debt at $16.066 trillion
As of close of business Friday, Sept 28, the national debt was $16.066 trillion, up $50 billion from the end of August, and $211 bn from the end of June. The last time the quarterly increase was this low was the 2nd quarter of 2011 (when it only increased $73 bn), but that doesn't count because it was during the debt crisis. Before that, in the 2nd quarter of 2008, the debt increased only $55 bn.
What is amazing is that more than two years ago I projected that the number on 9/30/12 would be $16.103 trillion. This is like hitting a hole-in-on on the golf course. That forecast also shows the debt next year at $17.330, so we will see.
I'm not going to do any more forecasts until the results of the fiscal cliff are known and until the debt rises above the sustainability line. This is now the 5th straight month that the debt is below the sustainability line, so hopefully this trend will continue.
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Update: The national debt jumped $93 billion overnight, so as of close of business 10/1 it is at $16.159 trillion. The sustainability amount is $95 billion ($16.066 x .0059), so there is only $2 billion to spare for the whole month.
What is amazing is that more than two years ago I projected that the number on 9/30/12 would be $16.103 trillion. This is like hitting a hole-in-on on the golf course. That forecast also shows the debt next year at $17.330, so we will see.
I'm not going to do any more forecasts until the results of the fiscal cliff are known and until the debt rises above the sustainability line. This is now the 5th straight month that the debt is below the sustainability line, so hopefully this trend will continue.
=================
Update: The national debt jumped $93 billion overnight, so as of close of business 10/1 it is at $16.159 trillion. The sustainability amount is $95 billion ($16.066 x .0059), so there is only $2 billion to spare for the whole month.
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