Sunday, March 10, 2019
Friday, March 8, 2019
Fish diet part three
Today I had the Cajun Fish Combo at Popeye's. The cost was $8.67 with tax. This included 3 pieces of breaded fish and about 20 small breaded popcorn shrimp, biscuit, regular cole slaw, and sweet tea (22 oz) with a refill. The nutritional information shows 1087 calories, 42g of fat, 159g of carbs (4g of fiber), and 20g of protein.
If I would have left off the biscuit and had unsweetened tea, it would have had 520 calories, with 49g of carbs.
It was elegant and delicious but I can't recommend it, even on the slimmed down version, because it has entirely too many carbs.
Update: I am terminating the Fish Diet experiment since I was gaining weight on it. Kind of obvious in retrospect, but it was interesting to try for a few days.
If I would have left off the biscuit and had unsweetened tea, it would have had 520 calories, with 49g of carbs.
It was elegant and delicious but I can't recommend it, even on the slimmed down version, because it has entirely too many carbs.
Update: I am terminating the Fish Diet experiment since I was gaining weight on it. Kind of obvious in retrospect, but it was interesting to try for a few days.
Thursday, March 7, 2019
Fish diet part two
I'm reluctant to post this, but here goes. I ate a 12-inch tuna sandwich at Subway today. The cost, with tax, was $8.14. The nutritional information, according to their website with how I prepared it, is 1250 calories, with 81g of fat, 83g of carbs (6g of fiber), and 47g of protein.
This obviously can't be considered part of a healthy diet. I guess I could have ordered a tuna salad, which would have had 310 calories with 11g of carbs (not including the dressing), but it wouldn't have been nearly as filling and it would have cost more than 5 bucks. And I could have ordered a 6-inch sandwich, but it also would have been more than 5 bucks.
It was tasty but I can't recommend this.
This obviously can't be considered part of a healthy diet. I guess I could have ordered a tuna salad, which would have had 310 calories with 11g of carbs (not including the dressing), but it wouldn't have been nearly as filling and it would have cost more than 5 bucks. And I could have ordered a 6-inch sandwich, but it also would have been more than 5 bucks.
It was tasty but I can't recommend this.
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
History of the Magical Money Tree
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/02/modern-monetary-theory-isnt-helping
This is a very interesting article. MMT has roots in Chartalism, which was a word coined by Georg Friedrich Knapp (1842-1926). Knapp argues that money derives its value from being designated as legal tender and by requiring taxes to be paid in the currency.
Adam Smith made a chartalist observation in The Wealth of Nations: "A prince, who should enact that a certain proportion of his taxes should be paid in a paper money of a certain kind, might thereby give a certain value to this paper money".
In Magic Money Theory, the government doesn't need taxes as a source of revenue: taxes might be useful to tinker with the income distribution, or discourage vices, or to fight inflation by draining purchasing power from the economy. But governments don’t really need the revenue — they can just print the money.
However, proponents of the Marvelous Magnificent Truth don't have a good answer for inflation. Weimar Germany may be an extreme case, but since it’s often brought up by critics of MMT — “won’t all that keystroking lead to inflation, like Argentina or Weimar?” — it’s one for which they need to have a good answer. Wray’s reluctance to face head-on the risks of printing money makes you wonder how confident he really is of his own theory.
This is a very interesting article. MMT has roots in Chartalism, which was a word coined by Georg Friedrich Knapp (1842-1926). Knapp argues that money derives its value from being designated as legal tender and by requiring taxes to be paid in the currency.
Adam Smith made a chartalist observation in The Wealth of Nations: "A prince, who should enact that a certain proportion of his taxes should be paid in a paper money of a certain kind, might thereby give a certain value to this paper money".
In Magic Money Theory, the government doesn't need taxes as a source of revenue: taxes might be useful to tinker with the income distribution, or discourage vices, or to fight inflation by draining purchasing power from the economy. But governments don’t really need the revenue — they can just print the money.
However, proponents of the Marvelous Magnificent Truth don't have a good answer for inflation. Weimar Germany may be an extreme case, but since it’s often brought up by critics of MMT — “won’t all that keystroking lead to inflation, like Argentina or Weimar?” — it’s one for which they need to have a good answer. Wray’s reluctance to face head-on the risks of printing money makes you wonder how confident he really is of his own theory.
Fish Diet part one
I think that fish every day for lunch could be part of a health diet. Fish is filling and has lots of omega-3 oil in it. So I am going to to experiment with different options. This is what I ate today.
McDonald's Double Filet-o-Fish with side salad. The cost was $7.68 with tax. The regular filet-o-fish has 390 calories, with 38g of carbs. Adding another filet adds 120 calories and 9g carbs (from the breading). The side salad has 10 calories and 2g carbs. The ranch dressing added 170 calories and 9g carbs. Total was 690 calories and 58g of carbs.
I'm not concerned about calories, except for carbs. If I didn't eat the bun and didn't add the dressing, I would have saved 27g of carbs for the bun and 9g for the dressing, and reduced the calorie count by 150 for the bun and 170 calories for the dressing. The total would have been 370 calories and 22g carbs, but it wouldn't have been as filling.
It was very tasty and filling. Would order again.
McDonald's Double Filet-o-Fish with side salad. The cost was $7.68 with tax. The regular filet-o-fish has 390 calories, with 38g of carbs. Adding another filet adds 120 calories and 9g carbs (from the breading). The side salad has 10 calories and 2g carbs. The ranch dressing added 170 calories and 9g carbs. Total was 690 calories and 58g of carbs.
I'm not concerned about calories, except for carbs. If I didn't eat the bun and didn't add the dressing, I would have saved 27g of carbs for the bun and 9g for the dressing, and reduced the calorie count by 150 for the bun and 170 calories for the dressing. The total would have been 370 calories and 22g carbs, but it wouldn't have been as filling.
It was very tasty and filling. Would order again.
Sunday, March 3, 2019
The California National Debt
The quasi nation-state of California has a national debt of $1.5 trillion as of June 30, 2017 according to the California Policy Center. This number is increasing about $200 billion per year. More than half of this number, $846 billion, is from unfunded pension liabilities. The state of California has a credit rating of AA- according to Fitch and Standard and Poor's. California has only $83 billion in general obligation bonds as of March 2018 and could easily sell more.
I think that the sovereign national debt of California is a ponzi scheme and will keep going up forever, just like the U.S. national debt. When a pension crisis hits, which is inevitable, the pension funds will be bailed out by the state or by the US, so the unfunded pension liabilities are in effect guaranteed. California can issue more bonds to pay interest on its debts, so there is no limit on how much debt it issues except for self-restraint but its radical socialist leaders will soon do away with that. The Fed could also purchase California G.O. bonds in a crisis.
If push comes to shove, California can just issue its own California dollars. It has done that before in 2009 by issuing "registered warrants".
I think that the sovereign national debt of California is a ponzi scheme and will keep going up forever, just like the U.S. national debt. When a pension crisis hits, which is inevitable, the pension funds will be bailed out by the state or by the US, so the unfunded pension liabilities are in effect guaranteed. California can issue more bonds to pay interest on its debts, so there is no limit on how much debt it issues except for self-restraint but its radical socialist leaders will soon do away with that. The Fed could also purchase California G.O. bonds in a crisis.
If push comes to shove, California can just issue its own California dollars. It has done that before in 2009 by issuing "registered warrants".
Friday, March 1, 2019
Magic Money Tool
You just push a button and it creates money out of thin air.
governments need not tax or borrow in order to spend — they can just create money out of thin air. A few computer keystrokes and everyone gets health insurance, student debt disappears, and we can save the climate too, without all that messy class conflict
https://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2019/02/the-incredibly-rapid-and-dangerous.html
Do you believe in the MMT? It is the answer to all the world's problems, at least all the problems involving money. There is an infinite supply of dollars just waiting to be printed, what is stopping us?
Yes it will cause a little inflation, but that's a good thing since it makes it easier to pay back debts and it keeps people from hoarding money. And we know how to keep inflation under control, by jacking up the Fed Funds Rate. In a paper criticizing MMT, the left-Keynesian economist Thomas Palley says he’s heard a “leading” MMTer say inflation less than 40 percent is “costless.”
Seize the money relation! Enlist the aesthetic in money’s expansion! Hail money as the center of caretaking! Declare your dependence on care’s center! Relinquish attachments to thisness! Imagine a boundless public center! Never forsake abstraction for gravity’s attractions! Exalt abstraction as the locus of care! It goes on for over two hundred pages, as Ferguson summons Heidegger and the Eucharist to uncover in this new notion of money endless reservoirs and beauty and tenderness. This develops the utopian potential of MMT in ways that are outside the economist’s standard skillset, but it bears a tenuous relation with earthly reality.
governments need not tax or borrow in order to spend — they can just create money out of thin air. A few computer keystrokes and everyone gets health insurance, student debt disappears, and we can save the climate too, without all that messy class conflict
https://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2019/02/the-incredibly-rapid-and-dangerous.html
Do you believe in the MMT? It is the answer to all the world's problems, at least all the problems involving money. There is an infinite supply of dollars just waiting to be printed, what is stopping us?
Yes it will cause a little inflation, but that's a good thing since it makes it easier to pay back debts and it keeps people from hoarding money. And we know how to keep inflation under control, by jacking up the Fed Funds Rate. In a paper criticizing MMT, the left-Keynesian economist Thomas Palley says he’s heard a “leading” MMTer say inflation less than 40 percent is “costless.”
Seize the money relation! Enlist the aesthetic in money’s expansion! Hail money as the center of caretaking! Declare your dependence on care’s center! Relinquish attachments to thisness! Imagine a boundless public center! Never forsake abstraction for gravity’s attractions! Exalt abstraction as the locus of care! It goes on for over two hundred pages, as Ferguson summons Heidegger and the Eucharist to uncover in this new notion of money endless reservoirs and beauty and tenderness. This develops the utopian potential of MMT in ways that are outside the economist’s standard skillset, but it bears a tenuous relation with earthly reality.
Monday, February 18, 2019
Martin Armstrong predicts a global collapse in 2032
Western Civilization will collapse by 2032. There is a serious risk that after 2032, this will be very much like the
fall of Rome. Nonetheless, it is my personal hope that if we understand
that risk, we can avert it and move to a new type of wave formation and
learn from the past just once thereby advancing to the next level of
understanding.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/explaining-the-fall-of-western-society-as-we-know-it/
I'm not sure where he is getting the date from, but the Mayans had a cycle of 52 years. If you take the Great Depression of 1929 and add 104 years you get to 2033, which is pretty close. It is interesting that my last prediction was also for 2032, when Social Security will exhaust its trust funds, which will cause an anomaly in the system (benefits MUST be paid / benefits CAN'T be paid).
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/explaining-the-fall-of-western-society-as-we-know-it/
I'm not sure where he is getting the date from, but the Mayans had a cycle of 52 years. If you take the Great Depression of 1929 and add 104 years you get to 2033, which is pretty close. It is interesting that my last prediction was also for 2032, when Social Security will exhaust its trust funds, which will cause an anomaly in the system (benefits MUST be paid / benefits CAN'T be paid).
JPM Coin
JP Morgan just created their own digital currency. It differs from other cryptocurrencies because it is redeemable 1:1 to the US dollar, and it can't be converted into other cryptocurrencies. It is meant only for making transfers, not for holding. Wolf Richter reviewed it.
I think this is the next logical step. Probably every major bank will copy this. At some point the Federal Reserve may make its own FedCoin.
Friday, February 15, 2019
Lady
So lady Let me take a look at you now You're there on the dance floor Making me want you somehow Oh lady I think it's only fair I should say to you Don't be thinkin' that I don't want you 'Cause maybe I do
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
22 Trillion
If present trends continue, it will reach $44 trillion on about 2/28/2029.
Why are we celebrating again? Because we have discovered a way to create free money out of thin air, and it never needs to be paid back.
Sunday, February 10, 2019
Student Loan Forgiveness Fiasco
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/annehelenpetersen/student-debt-college-public-service-loan-forgiveness
The cost of education shifted from a societal investment — spread across the tax-paying public, in the name of a thriving society and economy — to an individual one. And no matter how astronomically priced that investment became, we continued to rationalize it as a worthwhile one. Even in a culture that idolizes high-profile college dropouts (Bill Gates, Steve Jobs), to refuse higher education in America has become tantamount to refusing to fulfill your potential. And if you refuse to fulfill your potential, any struggle can and will be blamed on you alone.
The cost of education shifted from a societal investment — spread across the tax-paying public, in the name of a thriving society and economy — to an individual one. And no matter how astronomically priced that investment became, we continued to rationalize it as a worthwhile one. Even in a culture that idolizes high-profile college dropouts (Bill Gates, Steve Jobs), to refuse higher education in America has become tantamount to refusing to fulfill your potential. And if you refuse to fulfill your potential, any struggle can and will be blamed on you alone.
Saturday, February 9, 2019
Wednesday, February 6, 2019
Bizarre Antarctica Conspiracy Theory
November 16, 2016. An amazing (but nearly 90% censored) Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) report circulating in the Kremlin today states that the Antarctica “guardians” swiftly retaliated against the United States this past week by “creating/unleashing” a massive earthquake after the Obama regime sent “without invitation or permission” its Secretary of State John Kerry to initiate contact with them in the “barrier zone” that’s forbidden by all “known protocols” in dealing with these “entities”.
According to this report, the Obama regime, in their knowing that the anti-globalist forces loyal to President-elect Donald Trump were poised for a victory over them, dispatched Secretary of State John Kerry to Antarctica where he arrived on 11 November.
SVR analysts in this report note that Secretary Kerry’s attempt to persuade the “guardians” to interfere in a “temporal matter” was “quickly/immediately” rebuffed by these “entities” who then ordered him to leave the “barrier zone” and not to return.
Upon leaving the Antarctica “barrier zone”, this report continues, Secretary Kerry arrived in Christchurch, New Zealand, on 12 November, where he stayed overnight before his traveling to Wellington the following day.
In the early morning hours (6:02 am local time) of 13 November while Secretary Kerry was sleeping in Christchurch, however, this report notes, this region was struck by a powerful 7.8 magnitude earthquake—and that SVR analysts state was a “predictable consequence” known to be used by these Antarctica “guardians” as a “warning message” not to interfere with their “mission/research”.
Monday, January 14, 2019
The National Debt doesn't matter so pump money into the economy with reckless abandon
People like Stephanie Kelton, Sanders' economist in 2016, a professor at Stony Brook University, and a proselytizer for this view toward currencies and national economies, argues that the government essentially prints money each time it authorizes new unpaid for programs and that it hasn't hurt the economy by causing runaway inflation.
What keeps politicians in check with what they can promise to voters. Or should there be a brake? Kelton: The brake is inflation. If policymakers run wild, cutting taxes and pumping money into the economy with reckless abandon, inflation will spike and voters will (presumably) check those politicians at the ballot box.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/13/politics/debt-spending-mmt/index.html
Umm, there is an argument that the National Debt doesn't matter. but I don't believe that voters will be any sort of check on government spending. They (if they are recipients of it) will love it. She doesn't address the traditional argument that raising interest rates will be a check on inflation.
I think this is just proclaiming the new pseudo-scientific economic gospel - MMT - and using it as an excuse to increase government spending. She blinded me with science!
What keeps politicians in check with what they can promise to voters. Or should there be a brake? Kelton: The brake is inflation. If policymakers run wild, cutting taxes and pumping money into the economy with reckless abandon, inflation will spike and voters will (presumably) check those politicians at the ballot box.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/13/politics/debt-spending-mmt/index.html
Umm, there is an argument that the National Debt doesn't matter. but I don't believe that voters will be any sort of check on government spending. They (if they are recipients of it) will love it. She doesn't address the traditional argument that raising interest rates will be a check on inflation.
I think this is just proclaiming the new pseudo-scientific economic gospel - MMT - and using it as an excuse to increase government spending. She blinded me with science!
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Powell is very worried about the growing amount of US debt
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is concerned about the ballooning amount of United States debt. “I’m very worried about it,” Powell said at The Economic Club of Washington, D.C. “From the Fed’s standpoint, we’re really looking at a business cycle length: that’s our frame of reference. The long-run fiscal, nonsustainability of the U.S. federal government isn’t really something that plays into the medium term that is relevant for our policy decisions.” However, “it’s a long-run issue that we definitely need to face, and ultimately, will have no choice but to face,” he added.
Why is he worried? We haven't reached infinity yet. It's too late to do anything about the rising debt and nobody cares. He needs to stop worrying and to love the free lunch.
See also: https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2018/10/yellen-says-rising-deficit-is.html
Do rate cuts cause recessions?
I just read an interesting theory that recessions are caused by rate cuts. Usually, you would think that a rate cut would help prevent a recession.
it's not the rate hikes that stifle economic growth and send stocks sliding that traditionally telegraph the start of a recession - it's the first rate cut following a tightening cycle that is usually the trigger. Case in point: the last three recessions were all preceded with the Fed cutting, i.e., the Fed loosened policy within three months before the previous three recessions, cutting by 0.25% in 1991, 1.5% in 2001 and 0.5% in 2007. ... the Fed is now too late to save the economy, to wit: "the Fed eases immediately prior to a recession", which is also why the steepening yield curve we are experiencing now is a far more ominous reversal to the recent flattening trend than if the curve had merely continued to flatten.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-10/chart-convinced-albert-edwards-recession-imminent
Maybe the Fed should just keep hiking until the recession starts instead of trying to predict recessions. (After all, a 2.5% rate isn't that high and by itself won't cause a recession.) Instead the predictions become self-fulfilled prophecies.
it's not the rate hikes that stifle economic growth and send stocks sliding that traditionally telegraph the start of a recession - it's the first rate cut following a tightening cycle that is usually the trigger. Case in point: the last three recessions were all preceded with the Fed cutting, i.e., the Fed loosened policy within three months before the previous three recessions, cutting by 0.25% in 1991, 1.5% in 2001 and 0.5% in 2007. ... the Fed is now too late to save the economy, to wit: "the Fed eases immediately prior to a recession", which is also why the steepening yield curve we are experiencing now is a far more ominous reversal to the recent flattening trend than if the curve had merely continued to flatten.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-10/chart-convinced-albert-edwards-recession-imminent
Maybe the Fed should just keep hiking until the recession starts instead of trying to predict recessions. (After all, a 2.5% rate isn't that high and by itself won't cause a recession.) Instead the predictions become self-fulfilled prophecies.
Friday, January 4, 2019
Is Medicare going to kill us?
Karl Denninger thinks so. Read Cut The Crap - NOW.
There is no "entitlement crisis" in Social Security. It is all in the medical side and it is going to bankrupt the nation and government both at the state and FEDERAL level unless it is stopped right here and now. The truth of the nation from a fiscal perspective is simply this: If the medical monopolist crap is not broken now fiscal collapse at local, state and federal levels is a certainty. There is absolutely no possible way out of this box through higher taxes, cost-shifting, economic "growth", more borrowing or even all of them at once. "Hide the sausage" games just flat-out don't work.
He might be on to something, so I'll bite. Question: How much did the government spend on Medicare (not including Medicaid) in November? This is an easy answer to find: $77 billion, found on page 3 of the Monthly Treasury Statement. This is the second highest government outlay, behind Social Security, which however is mostly funded with taxes. The corresponding number for Medicaid isn't easy to find, besides which Medicaid is partially paid by the states. So I will just focus on Medicare.
Since this number is so easy to find, I think I will update it monthly.
Update: Here is a related article- Revolt Or Collapse: Pick One
The people of this nation have the ability to put a stop to what is otherwise going to be a certain collapse -- not just in asset markets but of the government itself. This is not going to happen in 2024 when Medicare cannot pay it will happen before that date because in the history of the world markets have never allowed an actual end date to be reached before they throw up all over the impending disaster. To expect otherwise is to claim that literally everyone in the world is stupid beyond words.
May I point out that when Medicare's funds are exhausted that $1.1 trillion dollar expenditure (and rising) from last year will be immediately reduced by 75%? That's right -- they took in just $260 billion last fiscal year in Medicare taxes but spent four times that amount. If you think the government can immediately add $800 billion to the deficit without interest rates spiking to 10% or more overnight -- which instantly crashes the markets and government both -- you have rocks in your head.
Exactly when the markets will blow up is not determinable in advance but that it will happen is an absolute certainty. Once it happens there will be no orderly path available to the government or anyone else to stop or mitigate the damage since the entire problem with the market throwing up on such an event is that confidence in the ability and desire of government to address the issue will have been irretrievably lost.
There is no "entitlement crisis" in Social Security. It is all in the medical side and it is going to bankrupt the nation and government both at the state and FEDERAL level unless it is stopped right here and now. The truth of the nation from a fiscal perspective is simply this: If the medical monopolist crap is not broken now fiscal collapse at local, state and federal levels is a certainty. There is absolutely no possible way out of this box through higher taxes, cost-shifting, economic "growth", more borrowing or even all of them at once. "Hide the sausage" games just flat-out don't work.
He might be on to something, so I'll bite. Question: How much did the government spend on Medicare (not including Medicaid) in November? This is an easy answer to find: $77 billion, found on page 3 of the Monthly Treasury Statement. This is the second highest government outlay, behind Social Security, which however is mostly funded with taxes. The corresponding number for Medicaid isn't easy to find, besides which Medicaid is partially paid by the states. So I will just focus on Medicare.
Since this number is so easy to find, I think I will update it monthly.
Update: Here is a related article- Revolt Or Collapse: Pick One
The people of this nation have the ability to put a stop to what is otherwise going to be a certain collapse -- not just in asset markets but of the government itself. This is not going to happen in 2024 when Medicare cannot pay it will happen before that date because in the history of the world markets have never allowed an actual end date to be reached before they throw up all over the impending disaster. To expect otherwise is to claim that literally everyone in the world is stupid beyond words.
May I point out that when Medicare's funds are exhausted that $1.1 trillion dollar expenditure (and rising) from last year will be immediately reduced by 75%? That's right -- they took in just $260 billion last fiscal year in Medicare taxes but spent four times that amount. If you think the government can immediately add $800 billion to the deficit without interest rates spiking to 10% or more overnight -- which instantly crashes the markets and government both -- you have rocks in your head.
Exactly when the markets will blow up is not determinable in advance but that it will happen is an absolute certainty. Once it happens there will be no orderly path available to the government or anyone else to stop or mitigate the damage since the entire problem with the market throwing up on such an event is that confidence in the ability and desire of government to address the issue will have been irretrievably lost.
Thursday, January 3, 2019
New mersenne prime
It is 282,589,933-1 having 24,862,048 digits. It is the 51st Mersenne Prime.
See https://www.mersenne.org/.
This is an enormous number. And each increase in the power of two means a number twice as big. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last Mersenne Prime number found for a long, long time. Of course it was less than a year between discovery of the 50th and 51st mersennes, so who knows.
See https://www.mersenne.org/.
This is an enormous number. And each increase in the power of two means a number twice as big. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last Mersenne Prime number found for a long, long time. Of course it was less than a year between discovery of the 50th and 51st mersennes, so who knows.
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