SLS Las Vegas deathwatch

SLS Las Vegas net loss reaches $48.6 million in second quarter

"In the SEC quarterly filing, Stockbridge/SBE said total revenue between April and June was $36.9 million".  So expenses were $85.5 million for the 2nd quarter.

"Stockbridge said in the SEC filing it intends to provide SLS Las Vegas with "sufficient funds" through Dec. 31 to meet the property's obligations."  What if it burns through another $100 million through the end of the year?

Expect a shutdown in January.

=============
UPDATE:
The Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Las Vegas is also hemorrhaging cash.

he company that owns the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Las Vegas, Bref HR, has struggled for years, incurring losses for $103 million, $105.5 million and about $116 million for 2014, 2013 and 2015, respectively. There is substantial doubt about Bref's ability to continue as a going concern, or without the threat of liquidation, because of debt and losses says the company's accountant, Deloitte & Touche LLP, in an April 14 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
http://www.themiddlemarket.com/news/restructurings/turnaround-tuesday-losses-mount-for-hard-rock-las-vegas-hotel-255697-1.html

Planned ghost town to be built in New Mexico

A new city is being built in the middle of the desert at a whopping price tag of $1.4 billion and while it’s a very real place, it’s unlike anything the world has ever seen.

Despite featuring all the infrastructure you’d expect to find in a normal city, including skyscrapers, 35,000 homes, a shopping centre, church, service station and an airport, nobody will be allowed to live here.

The 38-square-kilometre area will also encompass farms, an industrial area, a rural road system and a highway.

It will be under constant surveillance and connected by underground tunnels, yet there will be no colourful details such as artwork or billboards.

Welcome to the Center for Innovation, Testing and Evaluation (CITE), a planned ghost town for New Mexico, America.

Essentially, it’s a huge, fully functional test city, the first of its kind in the world.

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-ideas/new-14-billion-city-is-being-built-in-the-desert/story-fnjpja3r-1227502878740

Another day, another drop

Wow.  Today (Aug 25) the Dow dropped another 204.91 to close at 15,666.44.

That is 6 days down in a row.  I wonder when was the last time that happened.

DJIA trend

Everyone is talking about the Dow's roller coaster ride today.  It last closed at 16,459.75, and upon open, almost immediately dropped 1,089.42 to 15,370.33 and then over the next several hours, regained almost all of that to reach 16,344.50 at 1:10pm (a rise of 974.17), which if it had closed at that point, would have resulted in a loss of only 115.25 for the day.  But then it plummeted again, closing at 15,871,35, a loss of 588.40 for the day.

I'm more concerned about the trend.  Check this out:
Aug 17, 2015 17,545.18
Aug 18, 2015 17,511.34
Aug 19, 2015 17,348.73
Aug 20, 2015 16,990.69
Aug 21, 2015 16,459.75
Aug 24, 2015 15,871.35

It dropped 5 days in a row, and over those 5 days dropped 1673.83 or 9.5%.  I think it will rise back into the 16,000 range for now. But I think it has farther to drop over the next few months.

Pentagon Accounting Fail

See http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/18/us-usa-pentagon-waste-specialreport-idUSBRE9AH0LQ20131118

At the DFAS offices that handle accounting for the Army, Navy, Air Force and other defense agencies, fudging the accounts with false entries is standard operating procedure, Reuters has found. And plugging isn't confined to DFAS (pronounced DEE-fass). Former military service officials say record-keeping at the operational level throughout the services is rife with made-up numbers to cover lost or missing information.

See also: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-dod-cant-balance-its-book-2013-2

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/02/11/Why-the-Defense-Department-Cant-Balance-Its-Books
http://cjonline.com/blog-post/lucinda/2015-08-20/united-states-pentagon-accounting-system-joke
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/03/the-pentagon-is-still-terrible-at-accounting-for-taxpayer-dollars-marine-corps-800-million-gao/
http://www.globalresearch.ca/report-reveals-8-5-trillion-missing-from-pentagon-budget-2/5453618

Must have moar debt!

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/opinion/paul-krugman-debt-is-good-for-the-economy.html

The Village Idiot speaks:
there’s a reasonable argument to be made that part of what ails the world economy right now is that governments aren’t deep enough in debt. we need more, not less, government debt.

The US doesn't have operational control of southern Arizona

FLORENCE, Arizona — “Nobody does,” Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu told Breitbart News when asked who has operational control of this region of the United States of America. Babeu was on a helicopter tour of Mexican drug cartel scout locations in caves in the side of mountains throughout the desert about 70 miles inside the U.S. border. Essentially, that means U.S. sovereignty is gone for hundreds, perhaps thousands, of square miles throughout the American southwest.

--http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/19/exclusive-az-sheriff-takes-dr-ben-carson-on-helicopter-tour-of-cartel-sites/

October 7

Martin (Weiss): There’s a finite date associated with your forecast. Please explain.

Larry (Edelson): It’s October 7, 2015, when we enter a new phase of the global economy, a phase when everything starts to hit the fan at once. It doesn’t necessarily mean that a precipitous event will occur on that day. There may be, there may not be. But it does mark a line in the sand between two eras:

* The current era when government debts continue to grow with reckless abandon, when nobody really gives a hoot and …

* A new era, when we’re all going to have to pay a big price for that government debt.

It’s a giant shift in the entire economic landscape, a time when governments must finally meet a great day of reckoning. I call it the “Great Convergence.”

Martin: When’s the last time we’ve seen a convergence point of this magnitude?

Larry: In 1929.

From http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/72473-72473

Biggest Primes

This is the list of all prime numbers with more than 3 million digits:

From https://primes.utm.edu/primes/lists/all.txt

    1  2^57885161-1                    17425170 G13   2013 Mersenne 48??
    2  2^43112609-1                    12978189 G10   2008 Mersenne 47??
    3  2^42643801-1                    12837064 G12   2009 Mersenne 46??
    4  2^37156667-1                    11185272 G11   2008 Mersenne 45?
    5  2^32582657-1                     9808358 G9    2006 Mersenne 44
    6  2^30402457-1                     9152052 G9    2005 Mersenne 43
    7  2^25964951-1                     7816230 G8    2005 Mersenne 42
    8  2^24036583-1                     7235733 G7    2004 Mersenne 41
    9  2^20996011-1                     6320430 G6    2003 Mersenne 40
   10  2^13466917-1                     4053946 G5    2001 Mersenne 39
   11  19249*2^13018586+1               3918990 SB10  2007 
   12c 3*2^11895718-1                   3580969 L4159 2015 
   13f 3*2^11731850-1                   3531640 L4103 2015 
   14  3*2^11484018-1                   3457035 L3993 2014 
   15  3*2^10829346+1                   3259959 L3770 2014 

From: http://www.primenumbers.net/prptop/prptop.php

1 (2^13372531+1)/3 4025533 Ryan Propper 09/2013
2 (2^13347311+1)/3 4017941 Ryan Propper 09/2013

I don't know why the last two aren't in the main prime numbers database.

Update:  The last 2 numbers are called Wagstaff primes, and it is extremely difficult to prove that they are actually prime.  That is why the Mersenne primes are so attractive, because there is a test for primality.

The number that starts with 19249 is part of the Seventeen or Bust projects, which is an attempt to prove (or disprove) the  Sierpinski problem, which I don't understand.

The numbers that start with 3*2 are part of the 321 Prime Search project on PrimeGrid, which keeps finding new megaprimes.

What is the benefit of finding such large numbers?  Really none at all.  Except to expand the horizons of what is thought possible.

New Formula for Primes

4*(10^500+317)^2-2*(10^500+317)+41, number of digits: 1001, time: 180988, ends in 401363.

4*(10^600+233)^2-2*(10^600+233)+41, number of digits: 1201, time: 252649, ends in 216731

And a 2000-digit number:
 4*(10^1000+14)^2+2*(10^1000+14)+41, number of digits: 2001, time: 71016, ends in 853.

New 2500 digit number:
4*(10^1250+232)^2-2*(10^1250+232)+41, number of digits: 2501, time: 1711446 (about 29 minutes), ends in 214873.

2000 digit prime number

210*(10^1997+31)+13, number of digits: 2000, time: 580956 (about 10 minutes). It ends in 6523


Update:  I tried to calculate a 3000 digit number but my machine froze up.  So that is about the limit of what I can do.

Primes

This is a diversion, but I created a simple program using BigInteger in Java to create prime numbers.

These are some prime numbers I calculated.  They have NOT been verified.  It is much,much more difficult to verify than to prove one.  My goal is to find a really big one, 20,000 digits or more and post it publicly. Time is in milliseconds.

Possible primes:
210*(10^397+16)-17, number of digits: 400, time:  2572.  Verified by WolframAlpha.
210*(10^447+15)-19, number of digits: 450, time: 3831
210*(10^497+18)-19, number of digits: 500, time: 5893
210*(10^547+37)+13, number of digits: 550, time: 15780
210*(10^597+17)-17, number of digits: 600, time: 8751
210*(10^647+4)-17, number of digits: 650, time: 2844
210*(10^697+8)-19, number of digits: 700, time: 6498
210*(10^797+89)+13,number of digits: 800, time: 89458
210*(10^897+6)-17,number of digits: 900, time: 9726
210*(10^997+72)-13,number of digits: 1000, time: 165535. This is a titanic prime! Verified by WolframAlpha.

210*(10^1097+146)+13, number of digits: 1100, time: 459584


210*(10^1197+162)+11, number of digits: 1200, time: 670547   This is a number starting with 21, about 1200 zeroes and ending in 34031.


210*(10^1247+96)+17, number of digits: 1250, time:  446148. This number ends in 20177.


210*(10^1297+22)-17,number of digits: 1300, time: 120943. It ends in 4603.


210*(10^1397+179)+17, number of digits: 1400, time:  1116773. It ends in 37607.


And that's about all I have time for.  Interesting. The first titanic prime (Mersenne prime 19) wasn't discovered until 1961.

MM61

Double Mersenne primes have the format: 2^(2^prime(n) - 1) - 1. MM61 means 2^(2^61-1)-1 or 2^{2305843009213693951} - 1. This number has approximately 694127911065419641 digits. It is unknown whether this number is prime or composite.

This is the smallest double Mersenne prime for which it is unknown whether it is composite or prime. Yet people are obsessed with proving that it is prime.  Or not.

"A number of people (including the author of this page) have tried finding divisors of MM61, MM89, MM107, MM127, MM521, MM607 and others, but so far without success"
--http://sites.google.com/site/anthonydforbes/mm61.htm

It has been proven that MM61 is not divisible by any number up to 1167025860000000.

That is some dedication. I wonder if we will ever know the answer.

Inventory to Sales Ratio

Source: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WHLSLRIRSA

I would say if it rises above 1.30, it probably means we are in a recession.  It is at 1.29 now.

Will Oil drop to $32?

"The familiar theme of oversupply and shaky demand is getting punctuated today," said Again Capital partner John Kilduff, who has expected WTI to aim for $30 per barrel. WTI futures for September fell more than 4 percent Tuesday and traded below $43.26 per barrel, the March 17 low.

Kilduff said, "$42.03 is going to be key. Then we'll be back to extrapolating back down to the low 30s from the financial crisis." He said if oil breaks $42.03, the next target is in the upper $30s at about $36, and then $32.

--http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/opec-just-kicked-oil-into-the-30s.html

Update: Oil just settled below $39.

Now it is predicted to drop to $20.

Manufacturers' New Orders

Merchant Wholesalers

Source: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WHLSLRSMSA

Thanks, Chartword.

Government shutdown likely

There is now a 60% chance of a government shutdown on October 1 because of the Planned Parenthood issue.  This is separate from the debt limit increase, which is needed by about Nov. 15.

All of this increases the odds of some sort of financial catastrophe this fall.

The Veteran's Administration does something right

The Veterans Administration is incompetent in many areas.  They shouldn't be anywhere near construction management (see my posting about the Aurora, Colorado VA hospital where they are spending over $2 billion building a hospital with only 180 beds).

However, they have an amazing health information system called VistA.  Most of it is open-source software, allowing a more robust system. There is a totally open-source version called WorldVista, which is used by many non-VA hospitals, even in other countries.  Here is one overview of the system architecture I found.

Meanwhile, the DoD is preparing to build a new proprietary healthcare information system at a cost of over $10 billion.  Why can't they just adopt VistA and create their own additional modules as necessary?  A new massive computer system designed by the government sounds like the very definition of fiasco.

Masdar City Fail

What if they build the City of the Future and no one wants to live there?

The government of Abu Dhabi has spent more than $18 billion on Masdar City, yet today almost 5 years after it opened, only a hundred or so college students live there.

See:
http://www.fastcoexist.com/3035446/eerie-video-shows-masdar-city-the-sustainable-city-of-the-future-has-no-one-in-it
http://reason.com/archives/2014/11/16/stillborn-utopia
http://projourno.org/2013/10/the-failure-of-masdar-city/