Hyperinflation won't happen here

The Case for Hyperinflation All the [financial] writers base their hyperinflation argument on America’s: 

•  out of control federal deficits 
• spiraling debt, 
• poor economy, 
• reluctance to raise taxes, 
• loss of control over the money supply. 

The Case For Inflation – Not Hyperinflation – Happening [In my opinion, however,] hyperinflation is something that is easy to say [and] makes headlines but is more difficult to achieve. The question is not, is it possible, but, [rather,] is it probable in America today. I think the circumstances make the probability low… 
Conclusion I respect many of the writers who believe that we will experience hyperinflation [but] I think most of them are jumping the gun. At this point none of the economic or political factors required to set off hyperinflation are present. [Indeed,] careful analysis of theory, fact, and history leads me to conclude that inflation/stagflation is our future. It is quite a leap of fancy to say we are certain to have hyperinflation. [Frankly,] I think it is political science fiction to think that the Fed or any politician would let hyperinflation happen here.
Source: http://www.munknee.com/will-hyperinflation-happen-in-america-here-are-economic-political-worst-case-scenarios/

Medicare will be depleted in 2026

https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds/downloads/tr2018.pdf

Even after this date, the expenditures will exceed income by only about $50 billion per year.

Year  Income Exp  Deficit
====  ===== ===== =====
2026  470.8 522.7 −51.9

Sorry, I'm not going to get excited about another $50 billion/year added to the deficit in 2026.

Losing Control by 2024

I have previously made the claim that by 2032, when Social Security becomes insolvent, that the US will face a fiscal crisis.  Now I am reading that it could come even sooner:

If the games do not stop by 2024 Medicare will run out of money and be forced to curtail care for Seniors or attempt to throw the entire deficit in its spending into the Federal Budget.  At that point The Fed will lose control entirely as will Congress, since effectively shutting off Medicare for Seniors will prove politically impossible.  We are talking about $2 trillion a year deficits forever once this occurs and the market will not allow that to happen.
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=234753

I am not endorsing this opinion, since I have made enough inaccurate predictions, and I think that our system is more resilient than I had previously thought.  Nevertheless it is something to consider:

Could the Fed and Congress lose control of the system by 2024?  What this would look like is $2 trillion/year deficits and resulting inflation, then hyper-inflation.

Can somebody convince me that this is not a likely scenario?

If solar panels are so clean, why do they produce so much toxic waste?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/05/23/if-solar-panels-are-so-clean-why-do-they-produce-so-much-toxic-waste/

Solar panels often contain lead, cadmium, and other toxic chemicals that cannot be removed without breaking apart the entire panel.  Disposal in “regular landfills [is] not recommended in case modules break and toxic materials leach into the soil” and so “disposal is potentially a major issue.”

2018 - the year everything changed

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-22/david-collums-2018-year-review-year-everything-changed
https://s3.amazonaws.com/cm-us-standard/documents/2018-Year-In-Review-PeakProsperity-Final.pdf

I keep trying to read this beast, but it is huge. I can't find a coherent theme. This is the best I can glean out of it: "If equity markets regress to the mean while the 38-year-old bond bull market turns into a bear, we will witness some serious wealth destruction."

It is very interesting, but could use an editor.  Anyways I would be well-worth taking a few hours to read it.

Why do I find it hard to write the next line

 [Verse 1]
So true funny how it seems
Always in time, but never in line for dreams
Head over heels when toe to toe
This is the sound of my soul
This is the sound
I bought a ticket to the world
But now I've come back again
Why do I find it hard to write the next line
Oh I want the truth to be said

 [Chorus] Huh huh huh hu-uh huh
I know this much is true
Huh huh huh hu-uh huh
I know this much is true

 [Verse 2]
With a thrill in my head and a pill on my tongue
Dissolve the nerves that have just begun
Listening to Marvin (all night long)
This is the sound of my soul
This is the sound
Always slipping from my hands
Sand's a time of its own
Take your seaside arms and write the next line
Oh I want the truth to be known

[Bridge] I bought a ticket to the world
But now I've come back again
Why do I find it hard to write the next line 
Oh I want the truth to be said

Comment:  Why is the phrase "Why do I find it hard to write the next line" in there?  It sounds like the song writer couldn't find anything that fit. But the "official" explanation is "True is about how difficult it is to be honest when you're trying to write a love song to someone."
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2012/may/14/how-we-made-true-spandau-ballet

And supposedly, this has a reference to Lolita by Vladimir Nabokov with "Take your seaside arms".

Now what does "I bought a ticket to the world" mean?

Federal Reserve Rate Hike

December 11, 2007 - the Fed reduces the Fed Funds rate from 4.5% to 4.25%.
December 19, 2018 - the Fed increases the Fed Funds rate from 2.25% to 2.5%.

Note that in the first case, the rate is reduced and in the second it is increased, but these are converging.  Especially if you take into account that by March 18, 2008, the rate was reduced to 2.25%.  If the Fed reduces rates by 1/4 percent in March then these will match exactly.

If you leave

If you leave, don't leave now
Please don't take my heart away
Promise me, just one more night
Then we'll go our separate ways
We've always had time on our side
Now it's fading fast
Every second, every moment
We've gotta make it last

I touch you once, I touch you twice
I won't let go at any price
I need you now like I need you then
You always said we'd still be friends someday

If you leave I won't cry
I won't waste one single day
But if you leave don't look back
I'll be running the other way
Seven years went under the bridge
Like time was standing still
Heaven knows what happens now 
You've gotta say you will

I'll touch you once, I'll touch you twice
I won't let go at any price
I need you now like I need you then
You always said we'd meet again

I touch you once, I touch you twice
I won't let go at any price
I need you now like I need you then
You always said we'd still be friends

I touch you once, I touch you twice
I won't let go at any price
I need you now like I need you then
You always said we'd meet again someday

If you leave
If you leave
If you leave
Don't look back
Don't look back

Comments: I really like this song.  I just want to point out that the singer is pathetic.  The guy is getting dumped and he wants to know if they can still be friends ("you always said").

A brief history of fat

This looks very interesting but I don't have time to watch it right now.

The Fed is insolvent

Yesterday the Fed released its latest quarterly financial statements, showing that the value of their bonds is now $66.5 billion LESS than what they paid. And that $66.5 billion unrealized loss is far greater than Fed’s razor-thin $39 billion in capital. This means that, on a mark-to-market basis, the largest and most systemically important financial institution in the world is objectively insolvent. (It’s also noteworthy that the Fed’s financial statements show a NET LOSS of $2.4 billion for the first nine months of 2018.)   https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/its-official-the-federal-reserve-is-insolvent-24373/

The Fed will say it doesn't matter because they intend to hold the bonds until maturity.  But that doesn't change the fact that they are insolvent.  This is a very early sign of a problem that will lead to hyperinflation.  If they keep buying bad assets (like U.S. government bonds that can only be paid back by issuing more), then they will have to monetize their losses.  

For the moment, quantitative easing has stopped.  But when the next recession hits, the government will spend like crazy, and borrow like crazy to get the money.  And the Fed will enable this by reinstating QE on a much larger scale.   They will buy an asset that nobody wants (one of an infinite number of treasury bonds) with the precious limited supply of Fed dollars.

How could the Fed get out of this situation?  It would be easy.  First, institute mark-to-market.  Second, stop sending the profits to the Treasury until the Fed's deficit is plugged.  But that won't happen.  It's easier to deny that there is a problem.

Massive Wealth Destruction Coming

URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0Bq72cMOSY

Love Comes Walking In

Netflix is going down

Back in the middle of the summer, the stock price peaked at $423.21, and as I write this article it is currently at $269.70.  At this point, Netflix is bleeding cash at a rate that is staggering.  It has been projected that Netflix’s free cash flow will be negative 2.79 billion dollars in 2018, which will be the worst year that it has ever experienced.

Looking forward, Netflix will be steadily losing key content and subscribers to competitors, and it is inevitable that their borrowing costs will go up quite a bit. Without sufficient revenue to service their exploding debt, it is only a matter of time before Netflix flames out and is forced to surrender. Netflix shares are still worth $269.70 at the moment, but that won’t last for long.  Eventually the company is going to zero, and no amount of irrational optimism will stop that from happening.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-rise-and-fall-of-netflix-here-are-5-reasons-why-netflix-stock-is-crashing-as-the-company-heads-for-oblivion

$16 trillion in Debt Held By the Public

Debt Held By the Public hit $16 trillion on 11/30/18. The exact number was 16,044,318,195,178.80.
It first hit $15 trillion on 2/15/18.  It should hit $17 trillion about 9/30/2019.  It is on track to hit $32 trillion by 2028.

Instead of freaking out about this maybe we should celebrate it.  The US Treasury truly has discovered the free lunch.  It can create money out of thin air by issuing bonds that never need to be paid back.  Since it is free, why not do more of the same.  Free money, I tell you.  Why look a gift horse in the mouth?