Saturday, June 26, 2021

Top Cities in the World for Qualify of Life

 This comes from Mercer but excluding cities whose metropolitan area is less than 1 million.  It's not bad, but cities in the same country tend to be clumped together.

London is at 36, and New York doesn't show up until 38.

1. Vienna, Austria

2. Zürich, Switzerland

3. Vancouver, Canada

4. Munich, Germany

5. Auckland, New Zealand

6. Düsseldorf/Cologne/Bonn, Germany

7. Frankfurt, Germany

8. Copenhagen, Denmark

9. Sydney, Australia

10. Amsterdam, Netherlands

11. Berlin, Germany

12. Toronto, Canada

13. Melbourne, Australia

14. Ottawa, Canada

15. Hamburg, Germany

16. Perth, Australia

17. Montréal, Canada

18. Nuremburg, Germany

19. Stockholm, Sweden

20. Oslo, Norway

21. Singapore, Singapore

22. Stuttgart, Germany

23. Brussels, Belgium

24. Adelaide, Australia

25. Helsinki, Finland

26. Calgary, Canada

27. Dublin, Ireland

28. San Francisco, US

29. Brisbane, Australia

30. Boston, US

31. Lisbon, Portugal

32. Honolulu, US

33. Paris, France

34. Lyon, France

35. Milan, Italy

36. London, UK

37. Barcelona, Spain

38. New York, US

39. Edinburgh, UK

40. Madrid, Spain

41. Seattle, US

42. Glasgow, UK 

43. Osaka/Kobe, Japan

44. Tokyo, Japan

45. Birmingham, UK

46. Chicago, US

47. Washington, US

48. Philadelphia, US

49. Yokohama, Japan

50. Rome, Italy

51. Pittsburgh, US

52. Leipzig, Germany

53. Minneapolis, US

54. Nagoya, Japan

55. Dallas/Ft Worth, US

56. Atlanta, US

57. Houston, US

58. Los Angeles, US

59. Miami, US

60. Prague, Czech Republic

61. St. Louis, US

62. Hong Kong

63. Detroit, US

64. Dubai, United Arab Emirates

65. Budapest, Hungary

66. Seoul, South Korea

67. Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

68. Montevideo, Uruguay

69. Warsaw, Poland

70. Taipei, Taiwan

71. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

72. Durban, South Africa

73. Athens, Greece

74. Riga, Latvia

75. Buenos Aires, Argentina

76. San Juan, Puerto Rico

77. Santiago, Chile

78. Busan, South Korea

79. Cape Town, South Africa

80. Johannesburg, South Africa

81. Panama City, Panama

82. Zagreb, Croatia

83. Wroclaw, Poland

84. Johor Bahru/Iskandar, Malaysia

85. Taichung, Taiwan

86. Shanghai, China

87. Tel Aviv, Israel

88. Muscat, Oman

89. Brasilia, Brazil

90. San José, Costa Rica

91. Bucharest, Romania

92. Doha, Qata

93. Monterrey, Mexico

94. Tunis, Tunisia

95. Asunción, Paraguay

96. Sofia, Bulgaria

97. Rabat, Morocco

98. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

99. São Paulo, Brazil

100. Beijing, China

Best Cities in the World

 Source: https://www.bestcities.org/

1. London

2. New York

3. Paris

4. Moscow

5. Tokyo

6. Dubai

7. Singapore

8. Barcelona

9. Los Angeles

10. Madrid

11. Rome

12. Chicago

13. Toronto

14. San Francisco (ex San Jose)

15. Abu Dhabi, UAE

16. St Petersburg, Russia

17. Amsterdam

18. Berlin

19. Prague, Czech Republic

20. Washington DC

21. Istanbul

22. Las Vegas

23. Doha, Qatar

24. Seoul

25. Sydney

26. Beijing

27. Miami

28. Munich, Germany

29. Milan, Italy

30. San Diego

31. Bangkok, Thailand

32. Vienna, Austria

33. Dublin

34. Vancouver

35. Boston

36. Zurich, Switzerland

37. Melbourne, Australia

38. Budapest, Hungary

39. Houston

40. Seattle

41. Montreal, Canada

42. Hong Kong

43. Frankfurt, Germany

44. Sao Paulo

45. Tel Aviv

46. Copenhagen, Denmark

47. Calgary, Canada

48. Orlando

49. Atlanta

50. Dallas

51. Hamburg, Germany

52. Osaka

53. Lisbon, Portugal

54. Austin

55. Phoenix

56. Naples, Italy

57. Oslo, Norway

58. Denver

59. Stockholm, Sweden

60. Philadelphia

61. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

62. Delhi, India

63. Buenos Aires, Argentina

64. San Jose

65. Brussels, Belgium

66. Portland, Oregon, US

67. Ottawa, Canada

68. Helsinki, Finland

69. Valencia, Spain

70. Brisbane, Australia

71. Warsaw, Poland

72. Minneapolis

73. Shanghai

74. Lyon, France

75. Adelaide, Australia

76. Edmonton, Canada

77. Marseille, France

78. Muscat, Oman

79. Athens, Greece

80. Stuttgart, Germany

81. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

82. Baltimore, Maryland, US

83. Auckland, New Zealand

84. Cologne, Germany

85. New Orleans, Louisiana, US

86. Kuwait City, Kuwait

87. Kiev, Ukraine

88. Hanover, Germany

89. Perth, Australia

90. Minsk, Belarus

91. Bucharest, Romania

92. Nashville, Tennessee, US

93. Dusseldorf, Germany

94. Manchester, UK

95. Sacramento, California, US

96. Glasgow, UK

97. Mexico City

98. Salt Lake City, Utah, US

99. Raleigh, North Carolina, US

100. Krakow, Poland

Wednesday, June 9, 2021

The Budget Deficit for May 2021 was $132 Billion

The federal government incurred a deficit of $132 billion in May 2021, CBO estimates, compared with a $399 billion shortfall in May 2020. The federal budget deficit was $2.1 trillion in the first eight months of fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$184 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year. Revenues were up by an estimated $587 billion (or 29 percent), but outlays rose more—by an estimated $771 billion (or 20 percent).  https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-06/57193-MBR.pdf

So the deficit for May 2021 is much lower than that for May 2020, but the fiscal year to date deficit is still higher than last year at this point.  There are still 4 months left in the fiscal year, and if the average deficit is $150 billion per month then the total deficit for FY 2021 will be about $2.7 trillion.

Monday, June 7, 2021

Reverse Repo Madness

 The Fed is putting its foot on the gas (by printing money to purchase Treasury securities) and the brake (with reverse repo) at the same time: "The Fed is walking a thin tightrope between fighting off financial asset deflation (a stock and bond market crash).  To do this it needs to continue printing enormous sums of money.  But it also has to avoid the money printing from translating into Weimar-scale hyperinflation and a crash in the dollar.  Along with this, the Fed also needs to prevent the Fed funds rate from going negative. The RRP mechanism is the Fed’s attempt to “mop up” the excess liquidity that has accumulated in large pools at the spectrum of financial intermediaries (banks, money market funds, GSEs)."  https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-feds-reverse-repo-madness/

The result is a system that is very unstable.  It would be logical for the Fed to ease its purchases of treasuries to prevent excess liquidity, but that causes the stock market to drop, which the Fed doesn't want.  You would think that banks would have an incentive to loan more money to get a higher return, but businesses don't want to borrow.

I don't understand what is going on.  Maybe the situation will fix itself after the quarter end on June 30, but it is also possible that we will have a crash shortly.  It is also possible that we will have a burst of hyperinflation, where there is a one-time reset of many prices by 20-40%.  Read the link. 

"The inevitable conclusion is hyperinflation followed by a collapse of the dollar and the stock and bond markets. My bet is that it is too late to prevent the inevitable."

Wednesday, June 2, 2021

M5 as of May 31 2021

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 5/31/21:

M2 (as of 4/01/21) = 20,108.6

Public Debt (as of 5/28/21) = 22,020.9

Fed Held (as of 5/26/21) = -5,087.2

----------------------------------------

Total = 37,042.3

On 4/30/21, this was at 36,937.8 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  This is up 104.5 during May and up 1,745.5 fiscal year to date, which is an annual inflation rate of 7.1%.  This is sustainable for the 4th month in a row.

I expected a huge jump in M2 which didn't happen, but the M2 is reported 2 months in arrears so this may show up next month.  The Public Debt actually dropped in May, which is very unusual.