New York's loss is Miami's gain

 https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/miami-new-diaspora

A wave of refugees is washing up on Miami’s shores, only now it’s disgruntled New Yorkers, fleeing the city’s draconian COVID restrictions and pessimistic politics

The budget deficit in July 2021 was $301 billion.

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $301 billion in July 2021, CBO estimates— $238 billion more than the shortfall in July 2020. The federal budget deficit was $2.5 trillion [actually 2.539 trillion] in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$269 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last year.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-08/57349-MBR.pdf

Note that outlays fiscal ytd are $5.856 trillion, which is higher than last year at this point, $5.631 trillion.

Where is the money going?

• Outlays for certain refundable tax credits were $318 billion higher than in the first 10 months of 2020.3 That increase was mostly driven by spending for the recovery rebates that were provided by the CAA and ARPA. 
• Outlays from the Coronavirus Relief Fund were $211 billion in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2021, compared with $149 billion during the same period last year. The CARES Act, which was enacted in March 2020, authorized $150 billion for the Treasury to provide grants to state, local, tribal, and territorial governments to offset expenses stemming from the pandemic. Most of those funds were disbursed in April 2020. Nearly all of the 2021 outlays stem from the additional $362 billion provided by ARPA. 
• Spending by the Department of Agriculture (included in “Other” in Table 3) increased by $47 billion, or 31 percent, largely because outlays for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program increased and because payments were made to farmers through the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program to cover increased marketing costs associated with the pandemic. 
• Payments for emergency rental assistance (included in “Other”) have totaled $33 billion in fiscal year 2021. State and local governments use grants provided under the CAA and ARPA to aid low-income households unable to pay rent because of the pandemic. There was no such spending in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2020. 
• Spending by the Department of Homeland Security (included in “Other”) was $23 billion, or 43 percent, higher than in the same period in 2020. That rise is mostly the result of increased spending from the Disaster Relief Fund related to the pandemic, including payments of unemployment benefits under the provisions of the Presidential memorandum issued in August 2020.

M5 as of July 31 2021

M5 is my measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 7/31/21:

M2 (as of 6/1/21):  20,388.9

Public Debt (as of 7/30/21):  22,427.7

Fed Held (as of 7/28/21): -5,263.7

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Total: 37,552.9

On 6/30/21, this was at 37,516.5 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  For July, this was up only 36.4.  For the fiscal year to date, this is up 2,256.10 or 7.67% on an annualized basis.  I am arbitrarily putting the danger zone at 8% increase or about $250 billion/mo, so this barely squeaks by as being sustainable.

There are two important numbers I am ignoring in this calculation.  First, the cash balance of the Treasury at the Fed.  This is about $537 billion as of 7/31/21.  Also, the amount of reverse repos with the Fed.  This number was about $902 billion at month end.

The debt limit came back to life at month end, and now stands at about $28.5 trillion.  It will remain there until raised by Congress, which will probably happen around October 1, when then new fiscal year begins.  There could be a government shutdown starting on October 1, unless Congress can agree on a budget and new debt limit.