The supply chain disruptions will continue until morale improves

 https://dailyreckoning.com/supply-chain-disruptions-will-continue/

When will that supply chain backlog clear? The answer is never. If there are more coming in than you can unload and you have an existing backlog that’s getting worse, it will never clear. ... Supply chain disruptions are a very big deal. The problem is pervasive. It’s not going away anytime soon because it would require undoing decades of globalization. You’re going to have to get used to it. When I say get used to it, I don’t mean tough luck. I just mean that this problem is going to continue.

The Budget Deficit in October 2021 was $167 Billion

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $167 billion in October, CBO estimates, $117 billion less than the shortfall recorded in the same month last year. Revenues in October were $285 billion, $47 billion (or 20 percent) more than receipts last year, largely because payments of individual income and payroll taxes increased. Outlays this October were $70 billion (or 70 percent) less than in the same month last year.  https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-11/57539-MBR.pdf

You have to do your own math here because the CBO report doesn't explain this.  If the deficit is $167 billion, and revenues are $285 billion, then outlays were $452 billion in October 2021.

Total outlays in FY 2021 were $6,818 billion or about $570 billion per month.  So spending "only" $452 billion in October is a step in the right direction.

M5 as of October 31 2021

As of 10/31/2021:

M2 (as of 9/1/21): 20,983.6
Public Debt (as of 10/29/21): 22,637.0
Fed Held (as of 11/3/21) -5,533.2
-----------------
Total 38,087.4

On 9/3/2021, this number was at 37,636.4, so this is up 451 billion since then.  This is a 1.2% increase in only one month, and the annualized rate is 15.4%.  This is unsustainable and will lead to hyperinflation.  Basically, the limit I see is 8% per year, which by the rule of 72 will lead to a doubling in 9 years.  I don't think the money supply should expand any more than that.

And this is before the stimulus packages get passed.