Another Projection

 So I did another projection and it is almost identical to the previous one.  There is definitely a danger threshold in 2043 when the debt to the public exceeds $86 trillion.

There are 2 basic problems with the finance of the United States.  First, the Social Security costs will increase once the SS trust fund is depleted about 2034.  Second, is interest rates on an increasing balance.  Right now, net interest on the national debt is about 2% of GDP.  This will exceed 5% by about 2041, and then 8% by 2053.  Right now the total deficit is about $1.5 trillion per year, but it will exceed $5 trillion per year by 2042.

US national debt on pace to be 225% of GDP by 2050

 https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-national-debt-pace-gdp-2050-penn-wharton-says

The findings from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a nonpartisan group at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, found that under current law, the national debt will rise to 225% of U.S. GDP by 2050. 

"Current U.S. fiscal policy is in permanent imbalance as current debt plus projected future spending outstrips future tax revenue," the analysis said. "Achieving fiscal balance would require the federal government to permanently increase tax revenues by over 40% or reduce expenditures by 30% or some combination of both."

Here is the link to the study: https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2022/12/19/long-term-implications-of-current-budget-policies

Deficit of $248 Billion in November 2022

The federal budget deficit totaled $335 billion in October and November 2022, the first two months of fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. The federal government incurred a deficit of $248 billion in November 2022, CBO estimates—$56 billion more than the deficit recorded last November.  https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58756/html

How much was interest?  In October 2022, the US spent $43 billion in net interest, which is the 4th largest category, behind Social Security, National Defense, and Health.  

In November 2022, the US spent $50 billion in net interest, for a total of $93 billion fiscal year to date. 

How does this compare to projections?  The last official projections I saw show a $542 billion primary deficit in FY 2023 and $442 billion in net interest for a total of $984 billion projected for the year.  It looks like this will be blown out of the water.