Saturday, April 22, 2023

$2.5 Trillion Of Interest Payments YEARLY On Americans’ Horizon According To CBO’s Spending Projections

 Watch: http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2023/04/maga-25-trillion-of-interest-payments.html

I haven't watched the video.  We will have $2.5 trillion of interest annually starting in 2040, maybe the video says it is sooner.

I think that even $1 trillion per year of interest is a big problem, and this should start in fiscal year 2029.

Update: I finally watched it.  The $2.5 trillion comes from a $50 trillion national debt * 5% interest.  Dave Brat said the CBO scored the budget deal at $50 trillion in 10 years.  I can't find that number but it looks like the debt held by the public could be $46.7 trillion in 2033 (GDP of 39,288 * 118.9%).  So by 2035, the debt held by the public will be over $50 trillion.  The CBO projects lower interest than that, with $1.44 trillion in 2033, but maybe they are underestimating the rates.  I think Dave is saying that the debt to the public will be higher than projected, and will reach $50 trillion by 2033.  And if interest is slightly higher than projected, you get the $2.5 trillion annually by 2033.

Monday, April 10, 2023

March 2023 Deficit was $376 Billion

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $376 billion in March 2023, CBO estimates— $183 billion more than the shortfall recorded in March 2022.  The federal budget deficit was $1.1 trillion in the first half of fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$430 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year—and consistent with projections CBO released in February. 1 Outlays were 13 percent higher and revenues were 3 percent lower from October through March than during the same period in fiscal year 2022.

Net outlays for interest on the public debt increased by $90 billion (or 41 percent), mainly because interest rates are significantly higher than they were in the first six months of fiscal year 2022.  

Monthly Budget Review: March 2023 (cbo.gov)

Net Interest FYTD is $308 billion, thus March net interest was $68 billion.  I think this is the first month ever to exceed $50 billion of net interest in a single month.

On 3/31/23, the total national debt was $31.458 trillion.  On 3/31/2022, it was $30.401 trillion.  Thus it increased 3.5% from the previous year.