Jamie Dimon sees debt crisis in 2034

 Jamie Dimon says mounting US debt will eventually spark a 'rebellion' in global markets.  Mounting US debt will eventually spark a "rebellion" in markets around the world, JPMorgan CEO said. That's because $7.6 trillion of US government debt is held by foreign entities in countries like Japan and China. "It is a cliff. We see the cliff. It's about 10 years out. We're going 60 miles an hour," Dimon said. The US's mountain of debt hasn't gone anywhere — and that's a big problem for markets around the world, Jamie Dimon warned at a panel decision in Washington with the Bipartisan Policy Center on Friday. The US debt-to-GDP ratio looks like a hockey-stick chart — or one that starts relatively sideways before eventually spiking — JPMorgan CEO Dimon explained. He expects the measure to hit 130% by 2035.  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-says-mounting-us-050516886.html

This is the same time as the Social Security crisis is going to hit.

Just for fun, let's pick a date. How about Friday, September 29, 2034. That is the last business day in the fiscal year.  Maybe there will be a stock market crash that day, or interest rates will soar above 20%?  

GDP is now $27.9 trillion

 Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent at an annual rate, or $328.7 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $27.94 trillion.  https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023-advance-estimate

Debt to the Public is $27.0 trillion, so the ratio is 96.6%.

$27 trillion debt held by the public and $34 trillion total debt outstanding

 

As of yesterday, January 23, 2024, the debt held by the public hit $27.003 trillion and the total public debt hid $34.109 trillion.  I was waiting for both of these to hit the next trillion dollar mark before posting anything about it.  

This was only about 4 months after the previous milestones were reached. The $26 trillion debt held by the public was first reached on 8/31/2023, and the $33 trillion total debt was first reached on 9/15/2023. 

And it was only 3 months prior to this that the $25 trillion debt to the public was hit on 6/5/23 and the $32 trillion total debt was hit on 6/15/23.  

So we (I like to think that I participated in this awesome achievement!) spent $2 trillion in only 7 months. 

When did debt held by the public reach $13.5 trillion? On 11/27/2015.  So it took about 8 years to double.  If current trends continue, this will be at $54 trillion on about 1/23/2032.

When did the total debt first reach $17 trillion? On 10/17/2013.  This took about 10 years to double.  So total debt should reach $68 trillion on about 1/23/2034.  Note that the total debt was $8.5 trillion on 9/29/2006.

The next milestone of $28 trillion debt to the public and $35 trillion national debt should hit about July 1, 2024.

Are Aliens Real?

 

Starring David Grusch, whistleblower.

See also https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/of-interest/2023/10/05/ufo-david-grusch-uap-congress-yes-theory/

All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO)  https://www.aaro.mil/

https://www.archives.gov/news/topics/ufos

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See also: https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/

A former intelligence official [David Charles Grusch] turned whistleblower has given Congress and the Intelligence Community Inspector General extensive classified information about deeply covert programs that he says possess retrieved intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin.

Deficit of $128 billion in December 2023

 See Monthly Budget Review: December 2023 (cbo.gov)

mts1223.pdf (treasury.gov)

The federal government incurred a deficit of $128 billion in December 2023, CBO estimates— $43 billion more than the deficit recorded in December 2022.  (This is really bad - it is the 2nd highest December deficit ever, after a $140 billion deficit in December 2020.)  The federal budget deficit totaled $509 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $87 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year: Although revenues this year were $83 billion (or 8 percent) higher, outlays rose more—by $170 billion (or 12 percent). (The FYTD deficit is also the second highest ever behind FY2021.)

Net Interest for the month was $68 billion, and YTD net interest is $221 billion.  Defense spending for the month is $81 billion.

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On 12/30/22, the national debt was $31.420 trillion.  On 12/31/23, it was $34.001 trillion.  So it grew 8.2% in one year.

Projected Nominal GDP through 2100.

 This is the projected US Nominal GDP through 2100.  This comes from the Social Security Trustees report at: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/VI_G2_OASDHI_GDP.html, using the low-cost estimates.  I interpolated and rounded the numbers.  These show growth of about 5.5% per year.

Year	GDP
2024	28,800
2025	30,700
2026	32,500
2027	34,400
2028	36,200
2029	38,200
2030	40,300
2031	42,500
2032	44,800
2033	47,200
2034	49,700
2035	52,400
2036	55,200
2037	58,100
2038	61,200
2039	64,500
2040	67,900
2041	71,600
2042	75,400
2043	79,500
2044	83,700
2045	88,200
2046	93,100
2047	98,200
2048	103,500
2049	109,200
2050	115,100
2051	121,500
2052	128,100
2053	135,200
2054	142,600
2055	150,500
2056	158,900
2057	167,700
2058	177,000
2059	186,800
2060	196,800
2061	207,500
2062	218,800
2063	230,700
2064	243,200
2065	256,800
2066	270,700
2067	285,300
2068	300,800
2069	317,000
2070	334,500
2071	352,800
2072	372,000
2073	392,300
2074	413,700
2075	436,100
2076	460,000
2077	485,200
2078	511,800
2079	539,900
2080	570,600
2081	602,600
2082	636,400
2083	672,200
2084	709,900
2085	749,500
2086	791,600
2087	836,000
2088	882,900
2089	932,500
2090	985,600
2091	1,040,700
2092	1,098,900
2093	1,160,400
2094	1,225,300
2095	1,292,800
2096	1,364,000
2097	1,439,100
2098	1,518,300
2099	1,602,000
2100	1,690,100

Most models use percent of GDP, so these are the numbers to use.

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Update:  Here are the 2024 similar numbers: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2024/VI_G2_OASDHI_GDP.html .  These numbers are slightly different than those above.

This shows Intermediate, Low-cost, and High-cost numbers.  The low-cost numbers have the highest GDP and I adopt this assumption because there is no way the system can survive otherwise.  We need a higher GDP so the debt-to-GDP ratio is lower.