Tuesday, December 23, 2025

3Q 2025 GDP is $31.1 trillion

 See https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-12/gdp3q25-ini.pdf, page 9, line 1, where the number is 31,095.1 billion. This is up from 30,485.7 at the end of Q2 2025. 

They don't make it easy to find.  Instead the summary reads: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September).  To me, it looks like GDP increased by 2% during the quarter (31,095 / 30,486), so I don't know how they calculate their numbers, or how they separate "real" GDP from "current-dollar" GDP. Anyways, the increase is good.

So what is the ratio of debt to GDP?  Total national debt was $37.6 trillion as of 9/30/25, for a ratio of  121%.  This is down from 122% a year ago, so that is good.

For debt to the public, it was $30.3 trillion, for a ratio of 97.5%, up from 96.9% a year ago.

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

The Hatred of Candace Owens

 Read: https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/candace-owens-and-the-decay-of-the-american-brain

The author, someone named Nathan J Robinson, really hates Candace Owens and wants you to hate her too.  I think he has too much time on his hands.  Candace Owens has some interesting ideas and I like listening to her and watching her sometimes.  Some of her ideas may be crazy.  But the fact that some British snob doesn't like her may be a badge of honor.

The November 2025 deficit was $155 billion

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $155 billion in November 2025, CBO estimates— $212 billion less than the deficit recorded last November. The federal budget deficit totaled $439 billion in October and November 2025, the first two months of fiscal year 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $185 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Outlays were $73 billion (or 6 percent) lower, and revenues were $112 billion (or 18 percent) higher.

The Net Interest on the Public Debt was $185 billion fiscal year to date.  For some reason, they don't tell you what it was just for November. Since October was $91 billion, November was $94 billion.

Source: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-12/61308-MBR.pdf

The Federal Reserve actually had a small surplus of about $400 million in November, so it looks like its days of losing massive amounts of money are over. Their cumulative deficit as of 11/26/25 was $243.2 billion.  They need to get this back to zero, which will take many years to do.